2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland

[SevenEleven]

Maryland Fair Map



Note: I actually hate this map, especially the beltway district.

[SevenEleven]

Aren’t some of the whiter neighborhoods in Prince George’s County Hoyer strongholds?

PG is a stronghold for any dem on the ballot

I meant the primary. Without them, wouldn’t he be vulnerable to losing a primary?

People overrate racial voting in primaries with incumbents. Do a good job and you'll be fine.

[SevenEleven]

Maryland Fair Map



Note: I actually hate this map, especially the beltway district.

Except for the beltway district, this is a great map but that's an abomination. You should go for three AA VRA districts in MD and pairing Bethesda with PG County is unhelpful in that. Basically, I would keep your 1st, 2nd, 6th, and 7th districts unchanged and reconfigure the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 8th districts to be more compact. I would consider shifting Baltimore borders a bit as well to keep the city intact and have the 2nd take in more of Baltimore County to compensate, but that's subjective.

This map has three AA districts. The Beltway district is like 53% AA. I was just messing around when I realized that and decided to go from there. I cut Baltimore to maintain about the same percentage of AAs as the current district, but I don't think that's necessarily needed for the district to "perform". Later I'll post my other map where I wasn't messing around with the Beltway like this.

[SevenEleven]

Maryland Fair Map



Note: I actually hate this map, especially the beltway district.

Except for the beltway district, this is a great map but that's an abomination. You should go for three AA VRA districts in MD and pairing Bethesda with PG County is unhelpful in that. Basically, I would keep your 1st, 2nd, 6th, and 7th districts unchanged and reconfigure the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 8th districts to be more compact. I would consider shifting Baltimore borders a bit as well to keep the city intact and have the 2nd take in more of Baltimore County to compensate, but that's subjective.

This map has three AA districts. The Beltway district is like 53% AA. I was just messing around when I realized that and decided to go from there.

Still, why not do something like this?

Haha, that's almost identical to my actual map aside from the Baltimore cut. And no PG-Montgomery cut.

[SevenEleven]

[SevenEleven]

That's not a fair map at all lmao.

That isn't even a good R gerrymander.

[SevenEleven]

there's no good reason to cross the bay. it's one of the most obvious natural barriers in the whole country
and there is no "demographics" argument to link the western and eastern shores lol. except maybe the republican demographic

Its not a GOP argument, I genuinely think both of these maps are acceptable but I thought crossing the bay there might be better. The only difference here is crossing the bay creates a swing district in Baltimore while this creates a swing Western shore district.( The weird yellow arm in Montgomery keeps Georgetown whole.) The actual partisan effect in either map is neglible. What a partisan decision! I made a Trump +3.5 instead of Trump +2 district.

Wowwww...remember when I (understandably) got attacked for a map with a Fairfax County quad-cut that at leas followed natural boundaries? Well, that Montgomery quad-cut is twice as bad. Also, keeping the three Southern MD Counties together is so incredibly obvious, just like keeping the Eastern Shore and the counties from Fredrick west together.

The Fairfax cut is completely justified. Notice the same people who criticized that constantly making less sensible decisions with partisan intentions?

[SevenEleven]

Anyone want to explain to me what's wrong with my map? It's far cleaner than any of these other fair maps and actually keeps COIs intact. 3 AA districts as well.

Remember, Silver Spring and Bethesda are at opposite ends of the red line. In DC terms, these areas are not close at all.

[SevenEleven]

There is no reason to cut Annapolis like that or to loop the purple district around Baltimore. None.

[SevenEleven]

Anyone want to explain to me what's wrong with my map? It's far cleaner than any of these other fair maps and actually keeps COIs intact. 3 AA districts as well.

Remember, Silver Spring and Bethesda are at opposite ends of the red line. In DC terms, these areas are not close at all.

Just saying wouldnt it be better to split Howard county NE/SW as its kind of a mixed county between DC and Baltimore?

You could maybe exchange a few precincts, although it really wouldn't have any impact on the numbers. I mostly tried to keep townships whole here.

[SevenEleven]

Anyone want to explain to me what's wrong with my map? It's far cleaner than any of these other fair maps and actually keeps COIs intact. 3 AA districts as well.

Remember, Silver Spring and Bethesda are at opposite ends of the red line. In DC terms, these areas are not close at all.

maybe it’s a matter of personal preference, but i’d shift 6-2-8 clockwise. carroll county is technically in the baltimore area but it’s relatively rural and remote and consists of a lot of farmland, so i think it’s a better fit with frederick county than the baltimore suburbs. a good chunk of CD6 isn’t even in the washington area (hagerstown and westward) so it’s fairly reasonable to include carroll. this would also shift howard out of CD8 and keep moco more intact; i think that‘s more desirable if we’re concerned about separating the washington and baltimore metro areas

if you do that our maps are virtually the same lol

I put Frederick with Germantown because they are pretty closely tied and basically for the same reasons as Blairite's map below your post. I don't consider "rural whites" to be a COI that necessitates crossing metropolitan lines. Also, what that does to Howard is pretty messy. I'll take a look at your map.

[SevenEleven]

You can plainly see the Germantown-Frederick-Hagerstown corridor. How does Carroll tie into that? It really doesn't.

[SevenEleven]

You can plainly see the Germantown-Frederick-Hagerstown corridor. How does Carroll tie into that? It really doesn't.

Sure but 1/3 of Frederick is still pretty rural and the whole western 3 counties are definitely rural which fits in better with Carrol.

Rural is not a community of interest!! Agrarian would be, but rural by itself it's not.

[SevenEleven]

You can plainly see the Germantown-Frederick-Hagerstown corridor. How does Carroll tie into that? It really doesn't.

Sure but 1/3 of Frederick is still pretty rural and the whole western 3 counties are definitely rural which fits in better with Carrol.

Rural is not a community of interest!! Agrarian would be, but rural by itself it's not.

frederick and carroll both have a significant agricultural presence. there’s a lot of farmland and far more agricultural workers compared to moco or baltimore co. also, frederick has some important differences from moco; it’s geographically separated from the highly dense corridor running from germantown through PG, and it has significantly less professional workers. similar difference with carroll and baltimore

Carroll is much more tied to Baltimore if you consider where people go to shop or work, etc. I believe you had a strange Carroll cut on your map that didn't need to be there.

[SevenEleven]

Anyway whats your opinion of the coastal Baltimore district?

I don't hate it at all. It's a decent map tbh. I think the 8th could run more cleanly and I'd like to see the ethnic breakdown.

[SevenEleven]

Made an 8-0 map. It assumes Hoyer retires and Sarbanes gets over his media market fetish but otherwise puts every incumbent in their own Trump <40% district. There are three VRA seats. Without Hoyer and Harris, MD-03 and MD-08 are vacant.

Do you think this map can elect four black Democrats?

[SevenEleven]

Made an 8-0 map. It assumes Hoyer retires and Sarbanes gets over his media market fetish but otherwise puts every incumbent in their own Trump <40% district. There are three VRA seats. Without Hoyer and Harris, MD-03 and MD-08 are vacant.

Do you think this map can elect four black Democrats?

Maybe. MD-08 is about 50% white, 30% black. That would definitely be the most likely seat. (This presumes Hoyer's MD-03 seat goes to an AA Dem after he retires.)

What about MD-04?