2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Of come on Lfromnj. I could just as reasonably argue that this safe 7-1 map with 3 AA districts is clean and represents COIs. No fair map of Maryland has more than 1 safe GOP district and 1 swing district.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Of come on Lfromnj. I could just as reasonably argue that this safe 7-1 map with 3 AA districts is clean and represents COIs. No fair map of Maryland has more than 1 safe GOP district and 1 swing district.

How many incumbents does the leave outside their districts? That is a very nice-looking map.

Thank you. It leaves Harris out of his district (so MD Dems don't care), allows Ruppersberger to take over the grey district, gives Brown the red district, and leaves Hoyer in the yellow southern district. However, it forces Sarbanes and Mfume into the Baltimore district and Raskin and Trone into the purple district. The Anne Arundel-Baltimore County doesn't have an obvious rep although Sarbanes could carpetbag over there easily enough and Trone could go for the Fredrick-Hagerstown district. That said, this is a 6-1-1 map (Anne Arundel-Baltimore County is a tossup) so MD Dems obviously wouldn't go for it.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Of come on Lfromnj. I could just as reasonably argue that this safe 7-1 map with 3 AA districts is clean and represents COIs. No fair map of Maryland has more than 1 safe GOP district and 1 swing district.

lol any fair map has 2 Safe GOP districts, now there is a question if a third swing district is warranted, you clearly and purposefully removed part of Frederick county for no reason but to add more of Montgomery in despite the fact that Frederick directly borders Western MD, one could argue perhaps it could be a swing district because understandably going into Baltimore splits three of Maryland's regions(Capital,Western, and Baltimore/Central) But if you try to create a swing district from Western MD then going to the Western shore and creating a district there is just as fair, and then finally a lean to Safe R district in Baltimore would be warranted if you don't split Baltimore exurbs.

I did make a mistake int he Southern district, it should start from Charles county rather than Calvert.

That Western MD District is designed to avoid splitting the 270 corridor too much, which is definitely a COI. I started out with the Inner Montgomery district and then paired Germantown/Gaithersburg/Clarksville/Urbana/Frederick, which makes a lot of sense. I added in Western MD and dropped some of rural Eastern Fredrick for population adjustment. I suppose you could do a third split of Montgomery, but there aren't a lot of ties between Montgomery and Howard. Extending from PG into Montgomery is a no-go because of the need to get 3 AA seats. Anyway, the Western MD district is safe D. However, the Anne Arundel-Baltimore County seat actually narrowly voted for Trump, so if you want to turn that into a Likely R seat you can. Anyway, this map, after establishing the 3 compact AA districts, if very COI driven and you have to start connecting Western Maryland to Baltimore (no innate ties) or get ugly with suburban/exurban Baltimore to make to safe R seats. Plus with a state as D as Maryland, you're going to get magnified majorities and that's okay, just like a fair map of Kentucky is 5R-1D.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Of come on Lfromnj. I could just as reasonably argue that this safe 7-1 map with 3 AA districts is clean and represents COIs. No fair map of Maryland has more than 1 safe GOP district and 1 swing district.

lol any fair map has 2 Safe GOP districts, now there is a question if a third swing district is warranted, you clearly and purposefully removed part of Frederick county for no reason but to add more of Montgomery in despite the fact that Frederick directly borders Western MD, one could argue perhaps it could be a swing district because understandably going into Baltimore splits three of Maryland's regions(Capital,Western, and Baltimore/Central) But if you try to create a swing district from Western MD then going to the Western shore and creating a district there is just as fair, and then finally a lean to Safe R district in Baltimore would be warranted if you don't split Baltimore exurbs.

I did make a mistake int he Southern district, it should start from Charles county rather than Calvert.

That Western MD District is designed to avoid splitting the 270 corridor too much, which is definitely a COI. I started out with the Inner Montgomery district and then paired Germantown/Gaithersburg/Clarksville/Urbana/Frederick, which makes a lot of sense. I added in Western MD and dropped some of rural Eastern Fredrick for population adjustment. I suppose you could do a third split of Montgomery, but there aren't a lot of ties between Montgomery and Howard. Extending from PG into Montgomery is a no-go because of the need to get 3 AA seats. Anyway, the Western MD district is safe D. However, the Anne Arundel-Baltimore County seat actually narrowly voted for Trump, so if you want to turn that into a Likely R seat you can. Anyway, this map, after establishing the 3 compact AA districts, if very COI driven and you have to start connecting Western Maryland to Baltimore (no innate ties) or get ugly with suburban/exurban Baltimore to make to safe R seats. Plus with a state as D as Maryland, you're going to get magnified majorities and that's okay, just like a fair map of Kentucky is 5R-1D.

Except Western Maryland + all of Frederick should be combined and then the best D seat you can get is a pure tossup unless you actually start gerrymandering, its perfectly reasonable to bring it into Montgomery but it should be a tossup in that scenario, magnified majorities are normal of course but theres also geographic distribution .

If you do that, you have to do a tri-cut of Montgomery and there isn't an obvious place to do that from without tearing up Montgomery COIs though. The numbers, unfortunately, don't work themselves out all that cleanly.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Maryland Fair Map



Note: I actually hate this map, especially the beltway district.

Except for the beltway district, this is a great map but that's an abomination. You should go for three AA VRA districts in MD and pairing Bethesda with PG County is unhelpful in that. Basically, I would keep your 1st, 2nd, 6th, and 7th districts unchanged and reconfigure the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 8th districts to be more compact. I would consider shifting Baltimore borders a bit as well to keep the city intact and have the 2nd take in more of Baltimore County to compensate, but that's subjective.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Maryland Fair Map



Note: I actually hate this map, especially the beltway district.

Except for the beltway district, this is a great map but that's an abomination. You should go for three AA VRA districts in MD and pairing Bethesda with PG County is unhelpful in that. Basically, I would keep your 1st, 2nd, 6th, and 7th districts unchanged and reconfigure the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 8th districts to be more compact. I would consider shifting Baltimore borders a bit as well to keep the city intact and have the 2nd take in more of Baltimore County to compensate, but that's subjective.

This map has three AA districts. The Beltway district is like 53% AA. I was just messing around when I realized that and decided to go from there.

Still, why not do something like this?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Decided to ty my hand at 8-0. Not the ugliest map in the world, but not the best and there are only two VRA seats:

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

there's no good reason to cross the bay. it's one of the most obvious natural barriers in the whole country
and there is no "demographics" argument to link the western and eastern shores lol. except maybe the republican demographic

Its not a GOP argument, I genuinely think both of these maps are acceptable but I thought crossing the bay there might be better. The only difference here is crossing the bay creates a swing district in Baltimore while this creates a swing Western shore district.( The weird yellow arm in Montgomery keeps Georgetown whole.) The actual partisan effect in either map is neglible. What a partisan decision! I made a Trump +3.5 instead of Trump +2 district.

Wowwww...remember when I (understandably) got attacked for a map with a Fairfax County quad-cut that at leas followed natural boundaries? Well, that Montgomery quad-cut is twice as bad. Also, keeping the three Southern MD Counties together is so incredibly obvious, just like keeping the Eastern Shore and the counties from Fredrick west together.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

there's no good reason to cross the bay. it's one of the most obvious natural barriers in the whole country
and there is no "demographics" argument to link the western and eastern shores lol. except maybe the republican demographic

Its not a GOP argument, I genuinely think both of these maps are acceptable but I thought crossing the bay there might be better. The only difference here is crossing the bay creates a swing district in Baltimore while this creates a swing Western shore district.( The weird yellow arm in Montgomery keeps Georgetown whole.) The actual partisan effect in either map is neglible. What a partisan decision! I made a Trump +3.5 instead of Trump +2 district.

Wowwww...remember when I (understandably) got attacked for a map with a Fairfax County quad-cut that at leas followed natural boundaries? Well, that Montgomery quad-cut is twice as bad. Also, keeping the three Southern MD Counties together is so incredibly obvious, just like keeping the Eastern Shore and the counties from Fredrick west together.

meh and if i didnt keep the quad cut you would attack me for not keeping the Beltway together or for VRA concerns. Could easily keep it to a triple cut.


Anyway there we go , Triple cut, I don't care either way tbh.

Huh? Inside the beltway is bad specifically because of VRA concerns. Bethesda, Chevy Chase, and Silver Spring are white AF and should be paired with Rockville, Potomac, and Gaithersburg. And splitting up Southern MD is still ridiculous.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Made an 8-0 map. It assumes Hoyer retires and Sarbanes gets over his media market fetish but otherwise puts every incumbent in their own Trump <40% district. There are three VRA seats. Without Hoyer and Harris, MD-03 and MD-08 are vacant.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Made an 8-0 map. It assumes Hoyer retires and Sarbanes gets over his media market fetish but otherwise puts every incumbent in their own Trump <40% district. There are three VRA seats. Without Hoyer and Harris, MD-03 and MD-08 are vacant.

Do you think this map can elect four black Democrats?

Maybe. MD-08 is about 50% white, 30% black. That would definitely be the most likely seat. (This presumes Hoyer's MD-03 seat goes to an AA Dem after he retires.)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Made an 8-0 map. It assumes Hoyer retires and Sarbanes gets over his media market fetish but otherwise puts every incumbent in their own Trump <40% district. There are three VRA seats. Without Hoyer and Harris, MD-03 and MD-08 are vacant.

Do you think this map can elect four black Democrats?

Maybe. MD-08 is about 50% white, 30% black. That would definitely be the most likely seat. (This presumes Hoyer's MD-03 seat goes to an AA Dem after he retires.)

What about MD-04?

That's one of the 3 AA VRA seats (along with MD-03 and MD-07.)