2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/TammyBaldwinner/status/1508609771414466565

Time to call the moving vans.

Good, maybe Harris and Sabarnes will both lose their primaries. 

Wouldn't the eastern shore counties want their own rep anyway? 

[Pericles]

Surely they could have made that 6th safer? Shame that the 1 Republican who fairly wins is so awful.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/TammyBaldwinner/status/1508609771414466565

Time to call the moving vans.

Lots of people don't live in their district.

[Nyvin]

Why did they make MD-7 such a dem pack?  It's 56% BVAP and voted 80% Biden.   They could've taken more of the Essex/Middle River area away from MD-2 and moved MD-7 eastward and still have the district in compliance.

[Sol]

Why did they make MD-7 such a dem pack?  It's 56% BVAP and voted 80% Biden.   They could've taken more of the Essex/Middle River area away from MD-2 and moved MD-7 eastward and still have the district in compliance.

Maybe to help out Ruppersberger? He's repped coastal Baltco for years and I suspect him and Sarbanes are going to run in 2 and 3, despite their residences.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh wow, an actually decent CoI map? Gotta say, hard to complain here, even though this might cost Dems a seat.

[UncleSam]

What’re the chances this map holds up? Have Rs signaled anything in terms of a response? This seems like a very fair map from Dems that is reasonably clean, but not sure about VRA compliance.

[Sol]

What’re the chances this map holds up? Have Rs signaled anything in terms of a response? This seems like a very fair map from Dems that is reasonably clean, but not sure about VRA compliance.

A third Black majority district is easily drawable but Democrats aren't going to do that unless the courts force them to because Steny Hoyer doesn't want to lose a primary, basically. 🤮

[ProgressiveModerate]

What’re the chances this map holds up? Have Rs signaled anything in terms of a response? This seems like a very fair map from Dems that is reasonably clean, but not sure about VRA compliance.

A third Black majority district is easily drawable but Democrats aren't going to do that unless the courts force them to because Steny Hoyer doesn't want to lose a primary, basically. 🤮

While the clear intent to keep Hoyer's needs met is gross IMO, tbf, MD's black population is only 30%. 2 Majority Black seats + an opportunity seat they have a very good chance in once Hoyer retires should be good.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

What’re the chances this map holds up? Have Rs signaled anything in terms of a response? This seems like a very fair map from Dems that is reasonably clean, but not sure about VRA compliance.

A third Black majority district is easily drawable but Democrats aren't going to do that unless the courts force them to because Steny Hoyer doesn't want to lose a primary, basically. 🤮

Which is especially stupid given that Hoyer probably doesn't have that much terms left in him

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1511004675910385667

[wbrocks67]

Does someone have a 2020 breakdown for the new districts?

[Sol]

Nice! It's a pity that Andy Harris is the beneficiary of these maps, but frankly 7 Democrats and one absolutely insane Republican is kind of a good representation of the state's politics.

[Brittain33]

Hard to believe the country’s most absurd gerrymander is gone.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Does someone have a 2020 breakdown for the new districts?

The new 6th was a very narrow Clinton win in 2016 and Biden by low double digits in 2020.  It's potentially competitive in a wave.  The others are safe districts, though it wouldn't surprise me if the 2nd is semi-close this year, even as Democrats hold it.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

A sad day for the gerrymander font

[Roll Roons]

So, I guess the new MD-06 is Lean D for this year?

[Nyvin]

So, I guess the new MD-06 is Lean D for this year?

Probably lean D this year and then Likely D the rest of the decade.

[swf541]

So, I guess the new MD-06 is Lean D for this year?

Probably lean D this year and then Likely D the rest of the decade.

The likely GOP nominee is once again Neil Parrot, he lost to Trone by 20% is very far right vs the district (is my assembly rep) I don't see him being able to win a Biden +10 seat outside a wave worse then 2010/2014.

[ElectionsGuy]

So, I guess the new MD-06 is Lean D for this year?

Toss-Up.

[Minnesota Mike]

So, I guess the new MD-06 is Lean D for this year?

Toss-Up.

So a Biden+9 district with an incumbent who has the ability to spend whatever it takes is now a tossup? Sure.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, I guess the new MD-06 is Lean D for this year?

Toss-Up.

So a Biden+9 district with an incumbent who has the ability to spend whatever it takes is now a tossup? Sure.

Sure, Jan.

[ElectionsGuy]

So, I guess the new MD-06 is Lean D for this year?

Toss-Up.

So a Biden+9 district with an incumbent who has the ability to spend whatever it takes is now a tossup? Sure.

Yes. Have you been attention lately? You're telling me it would only take R+5 with uniform swing? Republicans have to like those odds in 2022, in a seat they otherwise never would've had a chance in before this redraw.

It's quite apparent people are not well prepared for what's coming.

[Sol]

Yeah Trone pretty clearly has decent odds of going down, at least if NJ and VA GOV are a good indication. The current MD-06 nearly flipped in 2014 and that's a far more favorable district.

Of course, it'd probably be a rental.

[Pericles]

So, I guess the new MD-06 is Lean D for this year?

Toss-Up.

So a Biden+9 district with an incumbent who has the ability to spend whatever it takes is now a tossup? Sure.

Yes. Have you been attention lately? You're telling me it would only take R+5 with uniform swing? Republicans have to like those odds in 2022, in a seat they otherwise never would've had a chance in before this redraw.

It's quite apparent people are not well prepared for what's coming.

It is very flippable. Republicans should run a Youngkin rather than a 2020 conspiracy theorist here, so they win by 2% instead of losing by 2%.