2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There doesn't seem to be any demand that Carroll be put in MD-6.

Do you reckon Ds could get away with having a district run from the DC border to Pennsylvania?
I.e. all panhandle counties+all of Frederick+as much as Montco as needed, and then Caroll+the rest of Montco+as much of Howard as needed?

[Torie]

Yeah that works. The issue then is whether with two equally good maps as to the metrics, proportionality should factor in at all. The Pubs should really have two seats even if you use an exponential function, or at least one safe seat and one lean seat. I guess the court might well tell us.

[lfromnj]

There doesn't seem to be any demand that Carroll be put in MD-6.

Do you reckon Ds could get away with having a district run from the DC border to Pennsylvania?
I.e. all panhandle counties+all of Frederick+as much as Montco as needed, and then Caroll+the rest of Montco+as much of Howard as needed?

No there's no way they can get to the DC border to PA but Germantown should be doable. Now the other issue is Incumbent demands and how much they bother to pander to that. It's still doable at this point to get away with a clean 7-1 but if they pander to incumbent demands with a bunch of absurdities that makes it easier to get blocked.

[It’s so Joever]

Lmao get wrecked incumbents.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's an example of a clean relatively goof COI map that still achieves the same partisanship goals as Dems previous map.

The court generally seemed to be most concerned about how MD's map violated COIs and was just awful and seemed to put partisan concerns as a second on the list, so Dems may have a small chance of the court accepting a map such as this, but they still mention Dems gerrymandering as a problem so likely not.

2 would be a 32% black opportunity seat in this district (the majority of the Dem primary is likely black).

Worst case for Dems would be if the court drew the map and created 2 pretty R districts on both panhandles plus maybe a likely D seat somewhere in the Baltimore suburbs.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Worst case map for MD Dems prolly looks something like this

[lfromnj]

Here's an example of a clean relatively goof COI map that still achieves the same partisanship goals as Dems previous map.

The court generally seemed to be most concerned about how MD's map violated COIs and was just awful and seemed to put partisan concerns as a second on the list, so Dems may have a small chance of the court accepting a map such as this, but they still mention Dems gerrymandering as a problem so likely not.

2 would be a 32% black opportunity seat in this district (the majority of the Dem primary is likely black).

Worst case for Dems would be if the court drew the map and created 2 pretty R districts on both panhandles plus maybe a likely D seat somewhere in the Baltimore suburbs.

I think it's pretty likely they will give up on Harris's district for 2022 and do a redraw later.

Also FYI you can get a better Trone district by splitting Frederick instead of Montgomery.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/kateamaraWBAL/status/1508465876688904196

Maps tonight.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SpeakerAJones/status/1508499761623621636

Sounds like tomorow. Also there is an Appeal.

[Sbane]

Lmao get wrecked incumbents.

Exactly. It is fairly easy to draw a 7-1 map where you cede the eastern shore and eastern exurbs of Baltimore to the Republicans, draw a dem leaning swing seat in western MD and the rest of the map just falls into place. It screws the current incumbents but most people don't care about that. If the MD dems were smart this is the sort of the map they would draw but I am sure they will F it up somehow.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I hear there is a new proposed map that will be voted on tomorrow.  Has anyone found any analysis?

[lfromnj]

I hear there is a new proposed map that will be voted on tomorrow.  Has anyone found any analysis?

No haven't seen an actual map yet. Seems like it will be released tomorow .

[ProgressiveModerate]

I hear there is a new proposed map that will be voted on tomorrow.  Has anyone found any analysis?

No haven't seen an actual map yet. Seems like it will be released tomorow .

Rlly don’t like the lack of transparency from MD Dems and the general lack of public input and stuff

[Torie]

If I were a mediator hired to facilitate a settlement pending something imposed by the courts, I think I would push this. Working from the metrics, it gets to a Pub seat plus a swing CD, although the trends in the Trump era were very pro Dem for the swing CD. But I have a feeling the Trump era is moving to something of a reset now, al least at the margins. Admittedly, that might be wishful thinking.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fa69e7d3-e907-410a-a1d3-4ce7c3e4a148

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I hear there is a new proposed map that will be voted on tomorrow.  Has anyone found any analysis?

No haven't seen an actual map yet. Seems like it will be released tomorow .

Rlly don’t like the lack of transparency from MD Dems and the general lack of public input and stuff

I believe they were forced by the Court to submit a new map by Wednesday, so I'm not sure what sort of public input you'd want in that time frame

[lfromnj]

https://www.baltimoresun.com/politics/bs-md-pol-democrats-congressional-districts-20220328-isecpuspl5az3cuxzhyblbcify-story.html

[Torie]

https://www.baltimoresun.com/politics/bs-md-pol-democrats-congressional-districts-20220328-isecpuspl5az3cuxzhyblbcify-story.html

Well that article is worthless.

[Gass3268]

New Map

[lfromnj]

Yup 90% chance it goes through.

[Roll Roons]

MD-06 is still possible in a good year for the GOP.

[Stuart98]

DRA Link

That 4th seems like a potentially illegal black pack.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Thank god they didn’t pull an Ohio

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also worth noting MD-01 isn’t really a pack; it’s unpacked from the current map considering. Still should be likely R at worst unless the district swings another 12 points to the left.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It rlly gonna be a relief to have the DC metro area actually be relatively clean for the first time in a while.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/TammyBaldwinner/status/1508609771414466565

Time to call the moving vans.