Bevin vs Beshear in each Southern State

[OSR stands with Israel]

Assuming Bevin was incumbent governor of that state(Assume for states with one term rule they are allowed to run for reelection) with similar policies and controversies

Oklahoma: Bevin by 15
Texas: Beshear by 3.5
Louisiana: Beshear by 1
Arkansas: Bevin by 10.5
Tennessee: Bevin by 12
Mississippi: Bevin by 4.5
Alabama: Bevin by 13.5
Florida: Beshear by 2
Georgia: Beshear by 2
South Carolina: Bevin by 6
North Carolina: Beshear by 5
Virginia: Beshear by 11.5
West Virginia: Beshear by 1

[One Term Floridian]

I think Beshear would fairly comfortably pull thru in WV and narrowly even in TX, but other than that spot on numbers here

[KaiserDave]

Beshear would definitely have won in Texas. By like 1-2ish.

I also see a +15 Beshear victory in VA and +5 win in FL

[OSR stands with Israel]

Beshear would definitely have won in Texas. By like 1-2ish.

I also see a +15 Beshear victory in VA and +5 win in FL

I see Texas’s Bevin equivalent as Dan Patrick . I don’t see Beshear winning by 15 in VA that’s nearly as bad of a performance as Stewart .

[MT Treasurer]

Oklahoma: Bevin +5
Texas: Beshear +4
Louisiana: Beshear +2
Arkansas: Bevin +7
Tennessee: Bevin +5
Mississippi: Bevin +<1
Alabama: Bevin +4
Florida: Beshear +5
Georgia: Beshear +5
South Carolina: Beshear +<1
North Carolina: Beshear +7
Virginia: Beshear +18
West Virginia: Beshear +8

[KaiserDave]

Beshear would definitely have won in Texas. By like 1-2ish.

I also see a +15 Beshear victory in VA and +5 win in FL

I see Texas’s Bevin equivalent as Dan Patrick . I don’t see Beshear winning by 15 in VA that’s nearly as bad of a performance as Stewart .

1. That's not accurate, and KY is well to the right of Texas
2. And Bevin is almost as weak as Stewart and Virginia is a Safe D state

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Today I learned Texas is to the right of Kentucky.

Also I bet if you simulated the election in South Carolina with the same dynamics that the Democrat would probably also win there, but that’s debatable. Jim Smith came within 8% against a non-controversial incumbent just last year.

And wth with Virginia being only +11.5. Ed Gillespie got whooped by 9, so to suggest a candidate as laughably bad as Bevin would only do 2.5% worse is ludicrous

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Beshear would definitely have won in Texas. By like 1-2ish.

I also see a +15 Beshear victory in VA and +5 win in FL

I see Texas’s Bevin equivalent as Dan Patrick . I don’t see Beshear winning by 15 in VA that’s nearly as bad of a performance as Stewart .

This is absurd. That’s like saying Kris Kobach’s 18% win in a downballot race before he ran for Governor makes KS-Gov Likely/Safe R. Most people aren’t/weren’t aware of how insane Paxton and Patrick are. They would have definitely lost as the gubernatorial nominee against a Democrat of Beshear’s quality (and yes, hypothetical TX Democratic Beshear would have won Collin and Denton Counties, probably handily too). The problem is not many such Democrats exist of Beshear’s quality in Texas (yet). Maybe one or two have the potential.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Today I learned Texas is to the right of Kentucky.

Also I bet if you simulated the election in South Carolina with the same dynamics that the Democrat would probably also win there, but that’s debatable. Jim Smith came within 8% against a non-controversial incumbent just last year.

And wth with Virginia being only +11.5. Ed Gillespie got whooped by 9, so to suggest a candidate as laughably bad as Bevin would only do 2.5% worse is ludicrous

Kentucky is to the right of Texas but it’s also a union state which is why Bevin got as unpopular as he did . Also the National GOP would go all in to try to save a Texas Governor which they didn’t to till last minute in Kentucky . Sadly if they did do that , Bevin probably wins the race by 4 or so points .
Now Beshear could win TX but it would be a pure tossup so I just went with closest race here ( the senate race in 18 is also pretty close to this one).

As of VA , the GOP has a floor around 43% for non confederate type candidates so the best I see Beshear winning is by 13  .


You also liked a post that had Beshear winning by 8 points in WV so I think you do agree that states can have some different dynamics .

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Yes states do have different dynamics but the premise of this thread is if you rerun the Beshear vs. Bevin race throughout the south. And Bevin would have lost in Texas against a Beshear clone, probably by a decent margin. At the end of the day, Beshear win was powered by strong showings in the cities and suburbs (and a last hurrah for coal Democrats). Guess where 85% of Texans live? In big cities and suburbs. It wasn’t just unions that made him hated. He was just a dick to everyone for no reason (remind you of someone?).

I have a feeling you’re just purposely deluding yourself because deep down you know Bevin would lose Texas, but you just can’t come to terms with the idea of Texas voting for a Democrat.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yes states do have different dynamics but the premise of this thread is if you rerun the Beshear vs. Bevin race throughout the south. And Bevin would have lost in Texas against a Beshear clone, probably by a decent margin. At the end of the day, Beshear win was powered by strong showings in the cities and suburbs (and a last hurrah for coal Democrats). Guess where 85% of Texans live? In big cities and suburbs. It wasn’t just unions that made him hated. He was just a dick to everyone for no reason (remind you of someone?).

I have a feeling you’re just purposely deluding yourself because deep down you know Bevin would lose Texas, but you just can’t come to terms with the idea of Texas voting for a Democrat.

You are probably right then that Beshear  would win TX but my original reason was not for not coming to terms With that .


I have had that moment last year and that was that deep down I had a feeling Walker would lose but I just couldn’t really believe the fact that Scott Walker would lose

[Antonio the Sixth]

Basically, that's one of the few ways the Deep South/Outer South distinction still matters.

[Xing]

Oklahoma: Bevin +7
Texas: Beshear +3
Louisiana: Beshear +2
Arkansas: Bevin +10
Tennessee: Bevin +9
Mississippi: Bevin +2
Alabama: Bevin +13
Florida: Beshear +3
Georgia: Beshear +6
South Carolina: Bevin +1
North Carolina: Beshear +7
Virginia: Beshear +16
West Virginia: Beshear +4

[Sir Mohamed]

Oklahoma: Bevin +5
Texas: Beshear +4
Louisiana: Beshear +2
Arkansas: Bevin +7
Tennessee: Bevin +5
Mississippi: Bevin +<1
Alabama: Bevin +4
Florida: Beshear +5
Georgia: Beshear +5
South Carolina: Beshear +<1
North Carolina: Beshear +7
Virginia: Beshear +18
West Virginia: Beshear +8

This, except FL: Bevin +0.001%

[morgieb]

Oklahoma: Bevin+7
Texas: Beshear+2
Louisiana: Beshear+5
Arkansas: Bevin+11
Tennesee: Bevin+8
Mississippi: Bevin+1
Alabama: Bevin+7
Florida: Beshear+4
Georgia: Beshear+3
South Carolina: Beshear+1
North Carolina: Beshear+7
Virginia: Beshear+15
West Virginia: Beshear+5

[😥]

Oklahoma: Bevin +8
Texas: Beshear +5
Louisiana: Beshear +6
Arkansas: Bevin +5
Tennessee: Bevin +10
Mississippi: Bevin +4
Alabama: Bevin +12
Florida: Beshear +3
Georgia: Beshear +4
South Carolina: Beshear +1
North Carolina: Beshear +10
Virginia: Beshear +15
West Virginia: Beshear +3

[Lechasseur]

I think Beshear would win this matchup in every Southern state except for OK, AR, AL, MS and TN.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Oklahoma: Bevin+7
Texas: Beshear+2
Louisiana: Beshear+5
Arkansas: Bevin+11
Tennesee: Bevin+8
Mississippi: Bevin+1
Alabama: Bevin+7
Florida: Beshear+4
Georgia: Beshear+3
South Carolina: Beshear+1
North Carolina: Beshear+7
Virginia: Beshear+15
West Virginia: Beshear+5

Why are you using normie colors?

[😥]

Bevin vs Beshear in ALL states:

[

[MT Treasurer]

Basically, that's one of the few ways the Deep South/Outer South distinction still matters.

GA/TX/SC/MS going Republican and TN/AR simultaneously going Democratic must be a joke.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Bevin vs Beshear in ALL states:

Idaho, Wyoming, Nebraska and Utah would still go Republican

[KaiserDave]

My map

[Antonio the Sixth]

Basically, that's one of the few ways the Deep South/Outer South distinction still matters.

GA/TX/SC/MS going Republican and TN/AR simultaneously going Democratic must be a joke.

It's not. You need to look at more than just PVI to understand local election dynamics.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Beshear would definitely have won in Texas. By like 1-2ish.

I also see a +15 Beshear victory in VA and +5 win in FL

I see Texas’s Bevin equivalent as Dan Patrick . I don’t see Beshear winning by 15 in VA that’s nearly as bad of a performance as Stewart .

Umm what? At least Stewart or someone like him would have beaten Beshear in the gov race by mid to upper single digits

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Anyways,

OK: Bevin by 7
TX: Beshear by 5
LA: Beshear by 3
AR: Bevin by 15
TN: Bevin by 12
AL: Bevin by 14
MS: Bevin by 3
FL: Bevin by 0.00001 (f;ck you Florida)
GA: Beshear by 4
SC: Bevin by 2
NC: Beshear by 9
VA: Beshear by 19
WV: Beshear by 5