2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Non Swing Voter]

Does the congressional map factor in the massive population growth in NoVa and population loss in SW Virginia?  I thought it was pretty much settled that NoVa proper should be getting a 4th Congressional district in 2020 as all of the counties have generally gained population way above the state average and Loudoun County's population has just exploded. 

It would seem to me that would mean Dems should easily control at least 7 or 8 of the 11 districts.

4 in NoVa

and at least 3 in Richmond + Virginia Beach.

[Non Swing Voter]

Does the congressional map factor in the massive population growth in NoVa and population loss in SW Virginia?  I thought it was pretty much settled that NoVa proper should be getting a 4th Congressional district in 2020 as all of the counties have generally gained population way above the state average and Loudoun County's population has just exploded.  

It would seem to me that would mean Dems should easily control at least 7 or 8 of the 11 districts.

4 in NoVa

and at least 3 in Richmond + Virginia Beach.

Everything is with current projections. Using 2010 Data, NOVA just barely passed the pop for three districts in PW, Fairfax, Loudoun, and the cities. The Republicans used this to their advantage with VA-10 reaching beyond the core NOVA, and VA-01 reaching in. In 2020, this core NOVA is projected around 3.4 districts of the 11. That's still impressive growth, even if it doesn't demand a fourth district. Even more impressive when you remember that every 11 people added to the state raises the district pop requirements by 1, AKA a miniature version of the California paradox. This distribution favors the democrats, since they have NOVA votes to add into a 4th seat and make it competitive if they are nice, or it allows four districts to have ~70% of their pop in NOVA and 30% cracked outside, if Dems are aggressive.

Interesting.  If Fairfax + Loudoun + PW + Arlington + Alexandria (and I'm assuming by "cities" you mean the cities within Fairfax and other counties that aren't counted in the county population totals) = 3.4, then I think it would be pretty easy and fair to give Dems 4 districts.  The bulk of the population growth is probably in Loudoun so they could cut out most or all of the PW part of the 10th district while still keeping it lean democrat.  Then extend the PW + Fairfax vote out into a 4th district that runs south toward Richmond.  That seems like the fairest and most cohesive way to clean this up.

1 district based primarily in Arlington + Alexandria with some inner Fairfax.  (very Safe D)

1 district based primarily in Loudoun. (Lean D) (basically the Wexton district but slightly less D)

1 district that's almost all Fairfax.  (Safe D)

1 district that's primarily in Prince William with some Fairfax and some extensions south.  (strong lean D)

[Non Swing Voter]

Does the congressional map factor in the massive population growth in NoVa and population loss in SW Virginia?  I thought it was pretty much settled that NoVa proper should be getting a 4th Congressional district in 2020 as all of the counties have generally gained population way above the state average and Loudoun County's population has just exploded. 

It would seem to me that would mean Dems should easily control at least 7 or 8 of the 11 districts.

4 in NoVa

and at least 3 in Richmond + Virginia Beach.

fairfax county, which might have as much population as the rest of the major NOVA counties/cities combined, is barely growing relative to the state at large, so the factor isn’t as massive as you’d expect

It's gained about 70,000 since 2010, which is like 5 or 6% growth so far.   Not as big as Loudoun's 90,000 person growth, which is closer to 30%, but still high when you consider that there are counties in SW Virginia that have lost about 8 or 9% of their population since 2010.  Fairfax's population might be "low" relative to the state at large simply because other parts of NoVa have grown so rapidly they are weighting up the average for the entire state.

Also by 4, I should have clarified that I mean 4 based in NoVa but not necessarily entirely in NoVa. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Democrats should continue to gerrymander until there is a national consensus on this issue.  Why do Democrats always stupidly hold themselves to a higher standard?  If the GOP is going to continue to gerrymander throughout the south then Dems need to balance that out in states like Virginia. 

[Non Swing Voter]

fairly infuriating that the voters voted in Democrats for gun control which they punted on but were quick to give power to a Republican court.

Regardless, Republicans don't have a ton of options in terms of redistricting.  The rural areas of the state are losing population fast and NoVa is gaining population fast.  Not many options to gerrymander NoVa and even if they did it would be a ticking time bomb before the districts trend further democratic.  I suppose they have more options downstate though.

[Non Swing Voter]

It's really f'ing awful that we are in this position because Dems want to unilaterally be fair.  I'll probably have Comstock as a congresswoman again at this rate.  Meanwhile Texas probably creates a 40-0 Frankenmap.  Democrats are the worst at politics.  They should all retire.

[Non Swing Voter]

Why did dems pass this when they could have gerrymandered?

Because Dem politicians are obsessed with being holier than thou rather than actually delivering for their constituents who vote them in.  They constantly act like this is just some theoretical political science class.  It's not.  The real world consequences of their inaction and unilateral disarmament are tax cuts for billionaires.  That's the cold hard reality.  Because they let the other side gerrymander and don't do the same (generally speaking) Republicans have more opportunities to pass bills that the general public doesn't want. 

[Non Swing Voter]

incumbent friendly version -



https://davesredistricting.org/join/6c0ec3dc-d539-4dd9-91df-1fb614e4b396

Is that incumbent friendly?  It looks like Wexton is pushed out of her district into a GOP district.  I should probably be able to tell considering I live in her district but it looks like Leesberg is no longer part of the Dem district that includes Fairfax.

[Non Swing Voter]

Just thought, but is it possible that VA-10 keeps it's western counties out to Frederick and instead VA-1 is the district pulled into NoVA to balance the population?

This is quite possible.  The cleanest way to draw NOVA is 2 all-Fairfax districts (VA-08 and VA-11), then put all of Loudoun and the remaining slice of western Fairfax (<20K people) in VA-10 and then put all of Prince William/Manassas in VA-01.  It is not necessary to split Loudoun or Prince William.  This obviously flips VA-01 decisively to the Democrats-this version of VA-01 would barely get south of Fredericksburg.  This VA-10 would either be a Trump->Biden swing district or Lean Dem depending on which exact rural areas it gets.  The Dem commissioners would want to give it Charlottesville and the GOP commissioners would want to draw it into the Shenandoah Valley.  However, this configuration would also force an E-W safe R VA-07 cutting across central VA north of Henrico, so both sides would be sacrificing an incumbent by placing them in an opposition party +15 district.  It might not even be considered.   

So are you saying VA-10 essentially stays the same except you chop out McLean, Prince William and some other parts of Fairfax but keep Great Falls in with Loudoun county?  That would probably be a pretty swingy district the first few years but then become clearly lean Dem as Loudoun grows.  This is what I would do if I wanted to gerrymander 4 NOVA based Dem districts.

[Non Swing Voter]

Weren't Dems packing the Virginia court?  What happened to that.  I also voted against this commission for this exact reason.  When I early voted the Fairfax Democratic Party was at precincts telling people to vote against it, and the GOP was telling people to vote for it.

[Non Swing Voter]

At any rate, this is a missed opportunity for Dems and another example of how Dem politicians are useless/worthless.  Virginia is a state where Dems really could have mutilated the GOP in redistricting.  They should have bacon stripped districts out of NOVA and shored up borderline incumbents.  They probably could have picked up another congressional seat and created districts where Dem incumbents feel safe to vote the party line on a number of issues.  Instead, we have chaos just months before the 2021 elections.

[Non Swing Voter]

Didn't D's pack the state Supreme Court a while back?  So essentially we'll have a "light" D gerrymander (probably an incumbent protection congressional map)?

[Non Swing Voter]

Didn't D's pack the state Supreme Court a while back?  So essentially we'll have a "light" D gerrymander (probably an incumbent protection congressional map)?

The state supreme court is elected by the legislature, and most of the current justices were elected by a fully Republican legislature. A couple or so were first appointed into the court system by Democratic governors, but not all. One used to be a Republican state Representative for 14 years.

I thought the Dem legislature packed it a while back but maybe it was lower courts.  If the Dems literally handed all power of redistricting to GOP judges then I'm really pissed now.  The unilateral disarmament is absurd.

[Non Swing Voter]

I thought the Dem legislature packed it a while back but maybe it was lower courts.  If the Dems literally handed all power of redistricting to GOP judges then I'm really pissed now.  The unilateral disarmament is absurd.

Doesn't sound like VA. Democrats have only had full control for less than 2 years now and I don't remember any judicial reform / shenanigans happening.

Illinois Democrats recently passed a new map for the state supreme court for the first time in decades, mostly to shore up incumbent dems. Not that a very strong argument couldn't be made for a new map anyway given how wildly unbalanced some of the district populations had become. Maybe that was what you read? Certainly not West Virginia impeaching the entire supreme court in 2018 to replace them with conservatives ?

I found what I was thinking of.  I guess they just did it for the appeals court:

https://apnews.com/article/health-courts-coronavirus-pandemic-race-and-ethnicity-virginia-2937c5bf568b2986eede2982e909dd26

At least it shows a willingness to do something... I guess. 

[Non Swing Voter]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4bbecefb-4372-49f5-8475-da5771167081 VA Senate D
https://davesredistricting.org/join/e2c62df1-6679-4500-b459-b9fd7bb07b95 VA Senate R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/06813899-7514-420c-823b-f7bfad997aed VA House R
https://davesredistricting.org/join/5faf048d-191c-4437-bf1f-e9a9d4c53dc5 VA House D
I converted all four VA map proposals to DRA by using the VA Commission's shapefiles

The R gerrymandered NOVA senate districts based in Loudoun are dummymanders.  There's way too much growth in the urban parts of the county for the rural areas to maintain power.  JFC I was there just today and the traffic is sickening.

[Non Swing Voter]

Even the R drawn state senate map has 20 Clinton 2016 districts.  This isn't going to be egregious enough to flip the legislature on maps alone, particularly as the starting point of negotiations. 

Too much population loss in GOP areas. The population shifts in Virginia have been more brutal to the GOP over the last decade than perhaps any other state (except maybe GA).  At least in NC both GOP and Dem areas are growing.  In VA Dem areas have grown a ton and GOP areas have shrunk a ton.  If GOP areas didn't bleed so much population we probably would have gained a congressional district. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Even the R drawn state senate map has 20 Clinton 2016 districts.  This isn't going to be egregious enough to flip the legislature on maps alone, particularly as the starting point of negotiations. 

Too much population loss in GOP areas. The population shifts in Virginia have been more brutal to the GOP over the last decade than perhaps any other state (except maybe GA).  At least in NC both GOP and Dem areas are growing.  In VA Dem areas have grown a ton and GOP areas have shrunk a ton.  If GOP areas didn't bleed so much population we probably would have gained a congressional district. 

Georgia although the influx of black population has been brutal, the fastest growing counties have generally been the R exurbs

Yes, but they are also going from 80%R to 65%R at the same time because of that growth.  When some of these counties eventually flip, the state will be South Maryland.     

Oh of course. I am just pointing out Virginia is more brutal because the fastest growing county was Loudoun which went from barely D to completely Safe D.

I think it's the same thing though.  They are all growing because D voters are moving in and they're connected to the metro areas.  Whether they start at an R or D baseline.

This is happening everywhere.  The problem for the GOP in VA and GA in particular is that at the same time the rural areas are shrinking a lot.  In NC at least the rurals seem to be holding somewhat steady. 

This is somewhat off topic but I read this article today about PA, same thing, though to a lesser extent because D areas aren't growing as fast:

https://www.inquirer.com/news/rural-census-pennsylvania-voting-money-20210918.html

[Non Swing Voter]

No state pisses me off more than my own state of VA this cycle.  If Dems had any cajones and didn't cede redistricting to a commission they could have done real damage here.

At minimum an 8-3 split with 8 very safe incumbents.  Doing so might have made all the difference in 2022. 

[Non Swing Voter]

No state pisses me off more than my own state of VA this cycle.  If Dems had any cajones and didn't cede redistricting to a commission they could have done real damage here.

At minimum an 8-3 split with 8 very safe incumbents.  Doing so might have made all the difference in 2022. 

No.  It was simply the right thing to do regardless.  Of course, they should put initiatives on the ballot in all of the remaining Republican gerrymandered states that allow it (notably FL, OK, AR, and MO) and and failing that, try to elect pro-reform judges to state supreme courts that are chosen in statewide elections (notably TX and GA).   

I do wish the commission didn't have politicians on it.  The pure private citizen-based commissions seem to do a better job.  This one is a hybrid structure, so at least it's better than NJ. 

No.  It's not.  That's terrible thinking.  It's absurd for one party to enact commissions in safe states and the other party gerrymander.  That makes for one party rule and if anything then they'll end up passing some crap at the federal level that undermines these commissions. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Dems are such idiots.  They were given a mandate by voters and they gave Republicans a seat at the table with the Supreme Court to back them up (so actually just ceded power to the GOP).

Net result.  The senate map is less favorable to Dems than it was previously even though their has been massive population shift to Northern Virginia.  Elected Democrats should just retire from politics, they suck at it.

[Non Swing Voter]

ohh.. no..ughh Barbara Comstock may be my congresswoman..

She was mine for a time...

[Non Swing Voter]

Dems are such idiots.  They were given a mandate by voters and they gave Republicans a seat at the table with the Supreme Court to back them up (so actually just ceded power to the GOP).

Net result.  The senate map is less favorable to Dems than it was previously even though their has been massive population shift to Northern Virginia.  Elected Democrats should just retire from politics, they suck at it.

That depends on how much weight you put on Biden 2020 numbers.  There are only 20 Clinton seats, but I believe there are 25 Biden seats on this map.

I think the 2020 numbers are less precise though because in a lot of counties there were "central precincts" for early voting.  But assuming there are 25 Biden seats, which wouldn't surprise me, I think those are gonna be pretty accurate, mores than the Clinton numbers.  The suburbs here have changed and they are definitely not going back.  That applies to NOVA and Richmond suburbs.

[Non Swing Voter]

No state pisses me off more than my own state of VA this cycle.  If Dems had any cajones and didn't cede redistricting to a commission they could have done real damage here.

At minimum an 8-3 split with 8 very safe incumbents.  Doing so might have made all the difference in 2022. 

No.  It was simply the right thing to do regardless.  Of course, they should put initiatives on the ballot in all of the remaining Republican gerrymandered states that allow it (notably FL, OK, AR, and MO) and and failing that, try to elect pro-reform judges to state supreme courts that are chosen in statewide elections (notably TX and GA).   

I do wish the commission didn't have politicians on it.  The pure private citizen-based commissions seem to do a better job.  This one is a hybrid structure, so at least it's better than NJ. 

No.  It's not.  That's terrible thinking.  It's absurd for one party to enact commissions in safe states and the other party gerrymander.  That makes for one party rule and if anything then they'll end up passing some crap at the federal level that undermines these commissions. 

Have you seen the GOP maps this cycle lol

The GOP maps are still gerrymanders, it's just they were maxed out already.  They gerrymandered in 2010 so the best they could get was the status quo.  Dems had real opportunity to equalize matters and have given too much power away in states like CO and VA.  But I am still hopefully they will obliterate the GOP delegation in NY, which should restore some level of balance.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1446538402510348290

LOL good job Virginia dems, ceding this unnecessarily to the courts.

[Non Swing Voter]

Democrats are so bad at what they do.  Pretty much every elected Democrat should resign and the party should start from scratch.  It's no wonder that a party 70% of the population agrees with on almost all issues is out of power half the time.