2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Spectator]

Even the R drawn state senate map has 20 Clinton 2016 districts.  This isn't going to be egregious enough to flip the legislature on maps alone, particularly as the starting point of negotiations. 

Too much population loss in GOP areas. The population shifts in Virginia have been more brutal to the GOP over the last decade than perhaps any other state (except maybe GA).  At least in NC both GOP and Dem areas are growing.  In VA Dem areas have grown a ton and GOP areas have shrunk a ton.  If GOP areas didn't bleed so much population we probably would have gained a congressional district. 

Georgia although the influx of black population has been brutal, the fastest growing counties have generally been the R exurbs

Yes, but they are also going from 80%R to 65%R at the same time because of that growth.  When some of these counties eventually flip, the state will be South Maryland.     

Oh of course. I am just pointing out Virginia is more brutal because the fastest growing county was Loudoun which went from barely D to completely Safe D.

In the next decade or so, the swing in Exurban Atlanta will be even more dramatic. A Democrat will probably win Forsyth County by 2030 at this rate. Compare all the 2020 Atlanta counties to how they voted in 2004 and you also see some 40-60% swings.

[Spectator]

Sad thing is a fair VA map would be closer to 7-4 (on 2020 numbers) and we out here debating over if a fair map gives a Republican a chance at 50% of the delegation. Tbf VA geography isn’t great for Dems, but still

What are you talking about? Almost all the Republican voting counties are 70-80% Trump whereas most of the blue ones outside of the independent cities are solidly but much less lopsidedly blue, and that really helps Democrats. Places like Chesterfield, Chesapeake, Loudoun, and Prince William are and can in theory anchor their own congressional districts.