2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia (user search)
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia  (Read 57989 times)
slothdem
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Posts: 529


« on: November 27, 2020, 10:30:53 AM »

VA Reps may push the 5-1 court to do something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bce45050-8fd6-4923-9e68-81b01682d91d


5 and 7 are the leftovers, but the leftovers clearly benefit the GOP, the VRA seats are strengthened, which just happens to help shore up 2, and Albemarle honestly doesn't have a clear place to go, so I can see the 5-1 court just sticking it in Appalachia. In a vacuum, each of these decisions can clearly be justified as fine pairings, but on the broader scale, the side effects create a blatantly lopsided map, 6 might be vulnerable, but Appalachia is probably inelastic enough, 7 might also be vulnerable, but is currently D held anyways, I would not be shocked if the final map looks more like this than the quad cuts of Fairfax being proposed in this thread, and other than the NoVA seats, this map isn't even that ugly.

The Virginia Supreme Court is nominally 5 republicans and 2 democrats, but of those 5 republicans, only three are partisan hacks. One of them is basically a liberal democrat, and another is a hardcore ideologue but a very weak partisan. There is no way anything like what you've drawn becomes the map.
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slothdem
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Posts: 529


« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2021, 07:31:23 PM »

Back to two State Senate maps, seems like the "compromise" map is dead.

The new D plan is exactly the same as the compromise except that it retains the Roanoke to Blacksburg gerrymander for incumbent John Edwards.

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-b4/

The new R plan is a pretty serious gerrymander. It packs all the most Democratic areas of Prince William County in one seat to create a more competitive outer district that voted for Hillary by 1. There's a Richmond to Petersburg pack to make the Southside district less competitive. The Eastern Shore to Virginia Beach seat goes from Trump +1 to Trump +7

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-a4/

I suspect Democrats were too pessimistic re the VA Supreme Court. It is GOP majority but it is very old-line

3 members were initially D appointees
Majority of Rs were elected unanimously.

They will not do Ds any favors but they are not the WI Supreme Court. They will apply the rules, probably on coin flips err in favor of GOP, but the compromise was probably already about as far as they would go. Ie. I don't see the VA SC producing more than 20 Trump 2016 districts.

I’m expecting a minimal change congressional map as well from the court, maybe a few shifts for population growth but I expect VA 2 and 7 to remain competitive.

I'm really hoping if nothing else they get rid of the stupid northern arm of VA-5.

Also Wittman probably doesn't want least change since that means pulling his district more into NoVA.   The VA GOP probably wouldn't mind giving him the northern rural parts of VA-7.

And Spanberger wouldn’t mind giving them to him.  She just doesn’t want Hanover County in her district.

Hanover for the northern rurals is a good trade for Span. The northern rurals are close to unmovable, and while Hanover will never vote dem under any circumstance, there are and will continue to be solid trends for us as it develops.
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