2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I set out to make what a good, clean, compact incument protection map would look like.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/55a300f4-6852-4e0b-a256-bb74744cdd4a
This is the end result.
Luria, Spanberger, and Wexton all get noticably better districts. The 5th becomes safe GOP.
The new 12th is sort of a "fair fight" sort of district. Key word being "sort of". It'd be lean Dem if 2017 and later years are any indication.
It'd likely be 7D-4R-1S, and lock in such an advantage later on in the decade.

VA is not set to get a 12th seat, unless something unusual happens. Even if it was, you drew Spanberger out of her seat.

I know Spanberger was drawn out of her seat. She could just move though.
The 12th district thing is a...graver oversight.
D'oh.

It could if Corona throws off all the census estimates and we end up with more high education respondents. That is however a scenario outside the 95% confidence interval.

Yeah.
2030 is a much better chance than 2020. VA has a very strong chance of gaining a CD then.

I doubt it. 2030 looks like it'll see Washington, Idaho, Utah, Texas, Florida, and maybe California gaining. Nevada, Minnesota, Georgia, and North Carolina have outside chances. Virginia seems almost certain to stay at 11 and its growth rate would have to tick up fast in the first part of the decade for that to change.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I set out to make what a good, clean, compact incument protection map would look like.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/55a300f4-6852-4e0b-a256-bb74744cdd4a
This is the end result.
Luria, Spanberger, and Wexton all get noticably better districts. The 5th becomes safe GOP.
The new 12th is sort of a "fair fight" sort of district. Key word being "sort of". It'd be lean Dem if 2017 and later years are any indication.
It'd likely be 7D-4R-1S, and lock in such an advantage later on in the decade.

VA is not set to get a 12th seat, unless something unusual happens. Even if it was, you drew Spanberger out of her seat.

I know Spanberger was drawn out of her seat. She could just move though.
The 12th district thing is a...graver oversight.
D'oh.

It could if Corona throws off all the census estimates and we end up with more high education respondents. That is however a scenario outside the 95% confidence interval.

Yeah.
2030 is a much better chance than 2020. VA has a very strong chance of gaining a CD then.

I doubt it. 2030 looks like it'll see Washington, Idaho, Utah, Texas, Florida, and maybe California gaining. Nevada, Minnesota, Georgia, and North Carolina have outside chances. Virginia seems almost certain to stay at 11 and its growth rate would have to tick up fast in the first part of the decade for that to change.

But wouldn't NOVA growth be enough to power it just over the edge to 12 seats?

Probably not. Between 2010 and 2018, NoVa added 240,000 people. If that continues through 2030, NoVa gets to 2,830,000 people. To get a 12th district in 2030, Virginia has to have 9,450,000 people.  If the rest of Virginia keeps growing at its 2010-2016 rate, it hits 6,380,000 people in 2030. That leaves Virginia 240,000 people short of a 12th district in 2030, so unless growth rates pick up, it isn't getting a 12th until 2040.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's my take on a fair map (7D-3R, 2 Black VRA, etc.)



I really hate connecting Charlottesville and Richmond, but if you undo that, then you end up with a two-lobe district connected via a neck in Spotsylvania County (I'm not willing to change my Shenendoah, Southwest, and Richmond/Southside VRA seats). Are there any better ways to fix this problem?

I'm also conflicted about whether to pull a district out of Fairfax and create a more compact outer suburban seat, but I think NoVa is ultimately more characterized by three corridors outside the beltway along Dulles Toll Road, I-68, and I-95 than by inner and outer ring suburbs.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's my take on a fair map (7D-3R, 2 Black VRA, etc.)



I really hate connecting Charlottesville and Richmond, but if you undo that, then you end up with a two-lobe district connected via a neck in Spotsylvania County (I'm not willing to change my Shenendoah, Southwest, and Richmond/Southside VRA seats). Are there any better ways to fix this problem?

I'm also conflicted about whether to pull a district out of Fairfax and create a more compact outer suburban seat, but I think NoVa is ultimately more characterized by three corridors outside the beltway along Dulles Toll Road, I-68, and I-95 than by inner and outer ring suburbs.

Fair? HAHAHAHAHAHA

What are your specific criticisms? The Southside, Newport News-Norfolk, and Virginia Beach-Delmarva seats are basically locked in place by VRA and geography. The SWVA and Shenandoah seats are compact and follow clear COIs. Finally, four blue NoVa seats are unavoidable in any reasonable configuration. I've already discussed my issues with drawing Richmond, Charlottesville, and the Tidewater but even if you make a Tidewater-Charlottesville dumbbell seat and a more compact Richmond seat, the underlying partisanship won't change.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's my take on a fair map (7D-3R, 2 Black VRA, etc.)



I really hate connecting Charlottesville and Richmond, but if you undo that, then you end up with a two-lobe district connected via a neck in Spotsylvania County (I'm not willing to change my Shenendoah, Southwest, and Richmond/Southside VRA seats). Are there any better ways to fix this problem?

I'm also conflicted about whether to pull a district out of Fairfax and create a more compact outer suburban seat, but I think NoVa is ultimately more characterized by three corridors outside the beltway along Dulles Toll Road, I-68, and I-95 than by inner and outer ring suburbs.

Fair? HAHAHAHAHAHA

What are your specific criticisms? The Southside, Newport News-Norfolk, and Virginia Beach-Delmarva seats are basically locked in place by VRA and geography. The SWVA and Shenandoah seats are compact and follow clear COIs. Finally, four blue NoVa seats are unavoidable in any reasonable configuration. I've already discussed my issues with drawing Richmond, Charlottesville, and the Tidewater but even if you make a Tidewater-Charlottesville dumbbell seat and a more compact Richmond seat then the underlying partisanship won't change.

Dicing up Fairfax 4 ways is absurd.  Why not a compact seat in the county?  Also splitting up Richmond unnecessarily.  A compact seat could be made there.

I discussed this earlier. I think NoVa is more accurately divided into an inside the beltway region and three corridors (basically Reston-Loudoun, Vienna-Manassas, and Springfield-Fredricksburg.) Even if  I change NoVa around to consist of a Loudon-West PWC-Fauquier based seat, a Fairfax seat, a PWC-Fredricksburg seat, and an Arlington-Alexandria seat then the partisanship will be the exact same.

As for Richmond, you have to split it for VRA. It would be illegal not to do so. I can pull VA-08 in so VA-07 isn't in the metro area at all, but again, that won't change the partisanship of the map.

This is still a 7-3 map:

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's my take on a fair map (7D-3R, 2 Black VRA, etc.)



I really hate connecting Charlottesville and Richmond, but if you undo that, then you end up with a two-lobe district connected via a neck in Spotsylvania County (I'm not willing to change my Shenendoah, Southwest, and Richmond/Southside VRA seats). Are there any better ways to fix this problem?

I'm also conflicted about whether to pull a district out of Fairfax and create a more compact outer suburban seat, but I think NoVa is ultimately more characterized by three corridors outside the beltway along Dulles Toll Road, I-68, and I-95 than by inner and outer ring suburbs.

Fair? HAHAHAHAHAHA

What are your specific criticisms? The Southside, Newport News-Norfolk, and Virginia Beach-Delmarva seats are basically locked in place by VRA and geography. The SWVA and Shenandoah seats are compact and follow clear COIs. Finally, four blue NoVa seats are unavoidable in any reasonable configuration. I've already discussed my issues with drawing Richmond, Charlottesville, and the Tidewater but even if you make a Tidewater-Charlottesville dumbbell seat and a more compact Richmond seat then the underlying partisanship won't change.

Dicing up Fairfax 4 ways is absurd.  Why not a compact seat in the county?  Also splitting up Richmond unnecessarily.  A compact seat could be made there.

I discussed this earlier. I think NoVa is more accurately divided into an inside the beltway region and three corridors (basically Reston-Loudoun, Vienna-Manassas, and Springfield-Fredricksburg.) Even if  I change NoVa around to consist of a Loudon-West PWC-Fauquier based seat, a Fairfax seat, a PWC-Fredricksburg seat, and an Arlington-Alexandria seat then the partisanship will be the exact same.

As for Richmond, you have to split it for VRA. It would be illegal not to do so. I can pull VA-08 in so VA-07 isn't in the metro area at all, but again, that won't change the partisanship of the map.

This is still a 7-3 map:

Laughable, parts of Fairfax have more in common with other parts of Fairfax than Appalachia.  Just admit this is parrisan, you look so bad trying todeny the obvious.  Also a compact 40% black seat can be created in Richmond metro.  Due to racially polarized voting and a largely black dem primary electorate (but not so racially polarized a republican would win), a black candidate would likely win. 

Uh, nobody cares about where Winchester is and moving it around for population adjustment won't significantly affect partisanship. And yeah, Reston is definitely more connected with Ashburn than it is with Springfield, Fair Oaks is more connected with Manassas than it is with Great Falls, and Lorton is more connected with Woodbridge than it is with Chantilly. This is genuinely nonpartisan. A fair map of Virginia has six to eight safe Dem seats (just as a fair map of Tennessee has one or two, despite neither breakdown accurately reflecting the partisanship of the state.)

As for Richmond, 40% black is not good enough. 45% should be a minimum.

Anyhow, this map should address all of your concerns although you should know that in 2018 it would have been 9-2 Dem:

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's my take on a fair map (7D-3R, 2 Black VRA, etc.)



I really hate connecting Charlottesville and Richmond, but if you undo that, then you end up with a two-lobe district connected via a neck in Spotsylvania County (I'm not willing to change my Shenendoah, Southwest, and Richmond/Southside VRA seats). Are there any better ways to fix this problem?

I'm also conflicted about whether to pull a district out of Fairfax and create a more compact outer suburban seat, but I think NoVa is ultimately more characterized by three corridors outside the beltway along Dulles Toll Road, I-68, and I-95 than by inner and outer ring suburbs.

Fair? HAHAHAHAHAHA

What are your specific criticisms? The Southside, Newport News-Norfolk, and Virginia Beach-Delmarva seats are basically locked in place by VRA and geography. The SWVA and Shenandoah seats are compact and follow clear COIs. Finally, four blue NoVa seats are unavoidable in any reasonable configuration. I've already discussed my issues with drawing Richmond, Charlottesville, and the Tidewater but even if you make a Tidewater-Charlottesville dumbbell seat and a more compact Richmond seat then the underlying partisanship won't change.

Dicing up Fairfax 4 ways is absurd.  Why not a compact seat in the county?  Also splitting up Richmond unnecessarily.  A compact seat could be made there.

I discussed this earlier. I think NoVa is more accurately divided into an inside the beltway region and three corridors (basically Reston-Loudoun, Vienna-Manassas, and Springfield-Fredricksburg.) Even if  I change NoVa around to consist of a Loudon-West PWC-Fauquier based seat, a Fairfax seat, a PWC-Fredricksburg seat, and an Arlington-Alexandria seat then the partisanship will be the exact same.

As for Richmond, you have to split it for VRA. It would be illegal not to do so. I can pull VA-08 in so VA-07 isn't in the metro area at all, but again, that won't change the partisanship of the map.

This is still a 7-3 map:

Laughable, parts of Fairfax have more in common with other parts of Fairfax than Appalachia.  Just admit this is parrisan, you look so bad trying todeny the obvious.  Also a compact 40% black seat can be created in Richmond metro.  Due to racially polarized voting and a largely black dem primary electorate (but not so racially polarized a republican would win), a black candidate would likely win.  

Uh, nobody cares about where Winchester is and moving it around for population adjustment won't significantly affect partisanship. And yeah, Reston is definitely more connected with Ashburn than it is with Springfield, Fair Oaks is more connected with Manassas than it is with Great Falls, and Lorton is more connected with Woodbridge than it is with Chantilly. This is genuinely nonpartisan. A fair map of Virginia has six to eight safe Dem seats (just as a fair map of Tennessee has one or two, despite neither breakdown accurately reflecting the partisanship of the state.)

As for Richmond, 40% black is not good enough. 45% should be a minimum.

Anyhow, this map should address all of your concerns although you should know that in 2018 it would have been 9-2 Dem:

How isn't 40% enough?  Also, mask off there.  You admitted rural interests don't matter in your map and it's all about partisanship.  

Because the current VA-03 and VA-04 districts are 45% and 41% black, respectively, but crucially keep the white population below 52%. Also, VRA mandates that if minority communities can easily be kept together, then they must be put together and it's pretty damn easy to put Richmond and the Southside together to hit 45% AA so that is what you should do.

When you claim I said rural interests don't matter, I assume you're referring to my comment about Winchester. That's more because it doesn't fit that strongly into any current region. Certainly, it could be argued it belongs more with Shenandoah than with NoVA, but it's waaaay closer to Leesburg than Lynchburg which is why I said nobody cares. In fairness, I should have more accurately said nobody can make an overwhelming case for putting Winchester in a certain region so you should use it as balance for population adjustment. If I were to put it in the Shenendoah district, then I'd have to do a tri-chop of Roanoke or ditch Lynchburg which would obviously be way worse.

Not sure how this exposes some hidden partisan bias as I've been explaining in literally every post why I think my placement makes sense from a COI perspective, although I suppose it's just you projecting your unnuanced party over country mentality on everyone else.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I would probably make VA-03 take in more of Norfolk, and I've actually drawn it in such a way where you don't need to extend it west, and I'd move some of those more western parts of the 3rd into the 4th, the 4th simply went too far west, which led to the 5th being placed oddly. I actually don't have a problem with the Charlottesville to Richmond snake, but I'd shift the 1st north into your present 5th, and recreate the 5th in southern Virginia, as the 4th was pushed back to the east. Also maybe keeping the 11th compact in Fairfax/PWC avoids having to place Manassas and Fairfax into your 5th.

I really don't want to connect Virginia beach with the cities on the peninsula. (I didn't even want to do this with the Norfolk-Newport Beach district, but it is VRA mandated. Also, you can see in my new map that I cleaned up the Fairfax/PWC lines, although I'm still not convinced that makes a better map.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I would probably make VA-03 take in more of Norfolk, and I've actually drawn it in such a way where you don't need to extend it west, and I'd move some of those more western parts of the 3rd into the 4th, the 4th simply went too far west, which led to the 5th being placed oddly. I actually don't have a problem with the Charlottesville to Richmond snake, but I'd shift the 1st north into your present 5th, and recreate the 5th in southern Virginia, as the 4th was pushed back to the east. Also maybe keeping the 11th compact in Fairfax/PWC avoids having to place Manassas and Fairfax into your 5th.

I really don't want to connect Virginia beach with the cities on the peninsula. (I didn't even want to do this with the Norfolk-Newport Beach district, but it is VRA mandated. Also, you can see in my new map that I cleaned up the Fairfax/PWC lines, although I'm still not convinced that makes a better map.

5-1-5 fair map.  Richmond seat is 42% black, 46% white.  The swing seat in VA beach is Trump+2, bluer than the current seat there.  I'd expect this to end up being 6D-5R, due to how SEVA trended in the gov race and senate race, but the tossup could definitely go red in an election which leans republican even by a point nationally.

Woooow. And I'm the partisan mapmaker? Four rings in NoVa is INSANE. You're connecting Woodbridge to Ashburn and Fredericksburg to Leesburg. If the most efficient route between any two points in a NoVa district involves passing through another district, then you've done something wrong. That's why the area needs wedges radiating out from the beltway, not skinny concentric rings.

Fixing that alone should make four safe D districts. You made an extremely awkward Southwest VA, Shenandoah, and Southside configuration but that's just a mistake instead of gerrymandering so I'll ignore that.

Placing the Delmarva Peninsula with the Tidewater makes no sense given where the bridge is, your VA Beach/Norfolk district line is an obvious gerrymander given it requires crossing twice from the Southside to the Peninsula to go between the two lobes of your yellow district. VA Beach needs to take in the Delmarva Peninsula and some of Norfolk under any fair map which should push it further left. Also, your Richmond district looks unnecessarily weird.

Anyway, you should clean up green and make that a safe Dem seat and move teal a couple points left if you want that seriously considered as a fair map.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I would probably make VA-03 take in more of Norfolk, and I've actually drawn it in such a way where you don't need to extend it west, and I'd move some of those more western parts of the 3rd into the 4th, the 4th simply went too far west, which led to the 5th being placed oddly. I actually don't have a problem with the Charlottesville to Richmond snake, but I'd shift the 1st north into your present 5th, and recreate the 5th in southern Virginia, as the 4th was pushed back to the east. Also maybe keeping the 11th compact in Fairfax/PWC avoids having to place Manassas and Fairfax into your 5th.

I really don't want to connect Virginia beach with the cities on the peninsula. (I didn't even want to do this with the Norfolk-Newport Beach district, but it is VRA mandated. Also, you can see in my new map that I cleaned up the Fairfax/PWC lines, although I'm still not convinced that makes a better map.

5-1-5 fair map.  Richmond seat is 42% black, 46% white.  The swing seat in VA beach is Trump+2, bluer than the current seat there.  I'd expect this to end up being 6D-5R, due to how SEVA trended in the gov race and senate race, but the tossup could definitely go red in an election which leans republican even by a point nationally.

Woooow. And I'm the partisan mapmaker? Four rings in NoVa is INSANE. You're connecting Woodbridge to Ashburn and Fredericksburg to Leesburg. If the most efficient route between any two points in a NoVa district involves passing through another district, then you've done something wrong. That's why the area needs wedges radiating out from the beltway, not skinny concentric rings.

Fixing that alone should make four safe D districts. You made an extremely awkward Southwest VA, Shenandoah, and Southside configuration but that's just a mistake instead of gerrymandering so I'll ignore that.

Placing the Delmarva Peninsula with the Tidewater makes no sense given where the bridge is, your VA Beach/Norfolk district line is an obvious gerrymander given it requires crossing twice from the Southside to the Peninsula to go between the two lobes of your yellow district. VA Beach needs to take in the Delmarva Peninsula and some of Norfolk under any fair map which should push it further left. Also, your Richmond district looks unnecessarily weird.

Anyway, you should clean up green and make that a safe Dem seat and move teal a couple points left if you want that seriously considered as a fair map.

Cleaned up NoVa, doesn't really change anything except aesthetics however.  And SEVA is drawn fair, could be much more gop friendly.  The Norfolk district could be made more compact, but then the VA Beach seat becomes redder

You shouldn't connect Fredricksburg to West Loudoun. Fredricksburg needs to move into the dark green district which forces some of Fairfax or PWC into the lime district. Breaking up the I-95 corridor is wrong. Also, Hampton Roads is insanely non-compact. On a map, your yellow district looks like this:



Basically, you carved out the inner neighborhoods of Portsmouth and Norfolk and attach them across a massive body of water to a butchered-up peninsula, from where you attach them back across the water to Suffolk and the Southside. At the same time, you pair the Delmarva Peninsula with the Hampton Roads Peninsula despite no fixed link attaching the two.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Also, I crossed the bay to satisfy the VRA and to make a swing seat in VA beach.

That isn't necessary though:

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Also, I crossed the bay to satisfy the VRA and to make a swing seat in VA beach.

That isn't necessary though:

That isn't a swing seat tho

The point of fair maps isn't necessarily to maximize swing seats, although this definitely is one. It's Trump+3 and Northam+3.8.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Northampton and Accomack (Delmarva) really does belong with Virginia Beach, it's just too awkward not to have them together.

Placing the Delmarva Peninsula with the Tidewater makes no sense given where the bridge is

This seems like something silly to insist on, as the Delmarva-Virginia Beach connection is a pretty recent configuration (didn't exist before 2003) and the current VA-02 relies on water contiguity already to pick up Poquoson and York.  

Well, I also oppose that. I think water contiguity should never be allowed, except in obvious locations like Hawaii.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's my Virginia fair map.

That is...almost identical to my first Fair VA map a few pages back. As a heads up, everyone is going to lose their minds over the Fairfax County quad cut.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The quad-cut aside, you should drop Albemarle from the brown district and have it take in all the non-AA parts of the Richmond metro. Put Albemarle in Yellow, push the Lynchburg district north up the Shenandoah Valley, and backfill the Southside with red. That's basically how you clean this map up to make it look more reasonable.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The quad-cut aside, you should drop Albemarle from the brown district and have it take in all the non-AA parts of the Richmond metro. Put Albemarle in Yellow, push the Lynchburg district north up the Shenandoah Valley, and backfill the Southside with red. That's basically how you clean this map up to make it look more reasonable.

It might look cleaner but it has the unfortunate effect of spreading out some of the rural areas.

Not really. Like your map, mine basically has four rural-dominated districts but mine match four unique areas of the state: the southwest, Southside, Shenandoah, and Tidewater+rural Central VA.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

One thing: keeping East PWC with West PWC is a really bad map. East PWC belongs with Springfield and Lorton whereas West PWC should be with Chantilly or South Riding.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I see both sides here. As SevenEleven said, I have lived in the area (albeit on the other side of the Potomac) and NoVa is absolutely defined by three corridors: the Silver Line/Dulles Toll Road cities from Rosslyn to Tysons to Leesburg, the Orange Line/I-66 cities from Rosslyn to Vienna to Manassas, and the Blue Line/I-95 cities from Alexandria to Woodbridge to Fredericksburg. These are the routes that people travel along, live along, and meet other people along. A person in Reston is way more likely to travel inward to Ballston than down to Burke. At the same time, each corridor is *roughly* defined by similar demographics/densities/ways of life as you travel further and further from Arlington in that the average person in Chantilly is way more like someone in Ashburn than they are like someone in Crystal City. If you use this to define COIs then you want an inside the beltway/inner suburban/outer suburban divisions for perfectly good reasons.

However, this characterization ignores two key facts about NoVa: the exurbs aren't all that distinct from the suburbs and the I-95 corridor is very much its own thing. Compare Brambleton, way out in Loudon County with Mantua, just outside the beltway. Mantua is better established and has far nicer commutes, but they aren't all that distinct from each other. The case for spinning off Loudon from Fairfax is weak. At the same time, the I-95 corridor is different--it has lower incomes, a higher AA population, and a stronger military presence. You can see that Mantua is much more different from suburban Dale City than it is from exurban Brambleton. Interestingly, the corridor model also shows that the I-95 corridor is distinct from the other two. The split between Leesburg/Tysons and Vienna/Manassas happens out in Falls Church, not at the Potomac, and there are consistent built up areas and arterials between Dulles Toll Road and I-66. However, there is much more empty space between I-66 and I-95, hence my earlier recommendation to always divide PWC.

With this in mind, I would suggest a hybrid model for Northern Virginia. First establish the obvious inside the beltway district. Then construct a I-66/Dulles Corridor district within Fairfax including Tysons, Chantilly, Reston, Vienna, and so on. Spin off the more distinct I-95 corridor with everything from Woodbridge to Fredericksburg. With the leftovers on the western fringes of the metro, mostly in Loudon and West PWC, construct a fourth district which connects to whichever parts of RoVa you deem most appropriate.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

To maximize AA pop, you should really cut both Norfolk and Portsmouth. Let the VA Beach district take in whiter (and more suburban) northern Norfolk and Southern Portsmouth while pairing South Norfolk, North Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Suffolk, Newport News, and Hampton into one AA district.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

To maximize AA pop, you should really cut both Norfolk and Portsmouth. Let the VA Beach district take in whiter (and more suburban) northern Norfolk and Southern Portsmouth while pairing South Norfolk, North Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Suffolk, Newport News, and Hampton into one AA district.

Oh you so want the maximized AA pop without going too ugly?
Then do this
Trump +4.3 Green and
Clinton +31 Purple
48.5% Black.

I'm fine with that, although I'd trade a few more precincts in North Norfolk for a few in West Chesapeake to make the purple district a bit cleaner. I'd also take in all of Southampton county in exchange for a few (very white) precincts in North Newport News. Shouldn't affect the partisanship or AA pop too much but I think it looks better.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

VA-10 has to get population from somewhere.

Yup.  Push it further in and turn it into a Fairfax + Inner Loudoun district.

That Tidewater-to-Shenandoah district is an abomination, and you've managed to split Shenandoah three ways.  Current VA-01 alignment should be largely maintained, which means adding back Fredericksburg/Spotsylvania back in. 



This is an ideal fair map.  It makes more sense to cut Loudoun along partisan lines to create a Shenandoah-interest district and buff-up 3 NOVA seats (1 of which is a minority-interest district) rather than pizza slicing NOVA to create 4 Dem seats and (necessarily) hacking Shenandoah to death.

What the f**k! Are you seriously putting Burke in with the Tidewater and using water continuity in the Hampton Roads? And you're connecting the Southside with the Hampton Roads? Your 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th districts are all justifiable (although I would seriously change some lines around Staunton and Roanoke) but the rest are all wrong.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

VA-10 has to get population from somewhere.

Yup.  Push it further in and turn it into a Fairfax + Inner Loudoun district.

That Tidewater-to-Shenandoah district is an abomination, and you've managed to split Shenandoah three ways.  Current VA-01 alignment should be largely maintained, which means adding back Fredericksburg/Spotsylvania back in. 



This is an ideal fair map.  It makes more sense to cut Loudoun along partisan lines to create a Shenandoah-interest district and buff-up 3 NOVA seats (1 of which is a minority-interest district) rather than pizza slicing NOVA to create 4 Dem seats and (necessarily) hacking Shenandoah to death.

What the f**k! Are you seriously putting Burke in with the Tidewater and using water continuity in the Hampton Roads? And you're connecting the Southside with the Hampton Roads? Your 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th districts are all justifiable (although I would seriously change some lines around Staunton and Roanoke) but the rest are all wrong.

I drew that downstate alignment in a matter of minutes, but here's something that's probably more to your liking:



I don't really like the VA-05 this map forces, but the downstate lines are better.  I'll stand by my general NOVA alignment, which is replicated from my first map.  The only remaining "issue" is water continuity in VA-02, but I think it's justifiable from a "minimal change"-based criterion.

Downstate looks good but those lines in Burke, Manassas, and Vienna hurt.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I changed it to this:

I'd swap Roanoke over to yellow in exchange for those four southern counties.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

^ That's one of the best VA maps I've seen.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

A 7R-4D map can be made, albeit it'd only function in 2022 and be a dummymander for the rest of the decade.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5735689a-0876-4256-97e0-31087e34cb7e

Not VRA compliant. That ROVA Dem district is an illegal AA pack.