2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Skill and Chance]

Does John Edwards have a good seat to run in here?

They compromised on a much milder gerrymander that brings his seat to Trump +7 in 2016 and Trump +0.6 in 2020. He probably couldn't hold on in this political environment but could still in 2023.

In total, how many Biden districts in the House and how many in the Senate, under these lines?

Senate Map

Pres 2016: 23D-17R
Gov 2017: 24D-16R
Sen 2018: 26D-14R
Pres 2020: 24D-16R

House Map

Pres 2016: 52D-48R
Gov 2017: 56D-44R
Sen 2018: 68D-32R
Pres 2020: 60D-40R

Notably, because of reapportionment and undoing some of the State House 2011 Gerry in places like Charlottesville and Fredericksburg, the GOP would need to win in 2023 by even more than in 2021 to hold the state house.

D's have probable HoD pickups in VA Beach, Petersburg area , Albemarle, Fredericksburg area, and Loudoun.

The 2 competitive outer Richmond State Senate seats are probably just R enough to hold, and the SWVA Dem gets a Trump seat, so they need to pick up an extra NOVA seat to hold the chamber.

What do you suspect is the path of least resistance to R control of the state legislature, under these lines?

Basically win everything Youngkin won.  Legislative R's generally trailed him this year, which is highly unusual in VA.  However, the HoD is likely gone for good now that the Dem small towns have their own compact seats.

[LimoLiberal]

Does John Edwards have a good seat to run in here?

They compromised on a much milder gerrymander that brings his seat to Trump +7 in 2016 and Trump +0.6 in 2020. He probably couldn't hold on in this political environment but could still in 2023.

In total, how many Biden districts in the House and how many in the Senate, under these lines?

Senate Map

Pres 2016: 23D-17R
Gov 2017: 24D-16R
Sen 2018: 26D-14R
Pres 2020: 24D-16R

House Map

Pres 2016: 52D-48R
Gov 2017: 56D-44R
Sen 2018: 68D-32R
Pres 2020: 60D-40R

Notably, because of reapportionment and undoing some of the State House 2011 Gerry in places like Charlottesville and Fredericksburg, the GOP would need to win in 2023 by even more than in 2021 to hold the state house.

The HoD looks next to impossible for R's to hold, but the Senate probably got a bit easier for R's to pick up.  D's likely have to flip a narrow Clinton->Biden->Youngkin outer NOVA R seat to hold the Senate.  

I'm not sure that's true. Neutral year:

Ds currently have 21 seats.

D-1 in Roanoke/Blacksburg
D+1 in Richmond (Ds currently have 3, will have 4 assuming they can win the eastern Henrico seat, which did not vote for Youngkin)
D-1/+0/+1 in Hampton roads (Ds currently have 5, there are 4 solid D seats and a Clinton +3 seat in Suffolk and a Clinton +5 seat in Newport News both of which have D incumbents, so this could be anywhere from D-1 to D+1)
D+0/1 in NoVA (Ds currently have 11 seats, the new map has 11 solid D seats with the most marginal a Clinton +11 eastern PWC district, plus the aforementioned Clinton +6 outer Loudoun district as the 12th NoVA seat)

Democrats just need to win one of the marginal Hampton Roads seats and they don't even need the outer Loudoun seat.  

[Skill and Chance]

Does John Edwards have a good seat to run in here?

They compromised on a much milder gerrymander that brings his seat to Trump +7 in 2016 and Trump +0.6 in 2020. He probably couldn't hold on in this political environment but could still in 2023.

In total, how many Biden districts in the House and how many in the Senate, under these lines?

Senate Map

Pres 2016: 23D-17R
Gov 2017: 24D-16R
Sen 2018: 26D-14R
Pres 2020: 24D-16R

House Map

Pres 2016: 52D-48R
Gov 2017: 56D-44R
Sen 2018: 68D-32R
Pres 2020: 60D-40R

Notably, because of reapportionment and undoing some of the State House 2011 Gerry in places like Charlottesville and Fredericksburg, the GOP would need to win in 2023 by even more than in 2021 to hold the state house.

The HoD looks next to impossible for R's to hold, but the Senate probably got a bit easier for R's to pick up.  D's likely have to flip a narrow Clinton->Biden->Youngkin outer NOVA R seat to hold the Senate. 

I'm not sure that's true. Neutral year:

Ds currently have 21 seats.

D-1 in Roanoke/Blacksburg
D+1 in Richmond (Ds currently have 3, will have 4 assuming they can win the eastern Henrico seat, which did not vote for Youngkin)
D-1/+0/+1 in Hampton roads (Ds currently have 5, there are 4 solid D seats and a Clinton +3 seat in Suffolk and a Clinton +5 seat in Newport News both of which have D incumbents, so this could be anywhere from D-1 to D+1)
D+0/1 in NoVA (Ds currently have 11 seats, the new map has 11 solid D seats with the most marginal a Clinton +11 eastern PWC district, plus the aforementioned Clinton +6 outer Loudoun district)

Democrats just need to win one of the marginal Hampton Roads seats and they don't even need the outer Loudoun seat. 

Whoops, missed the extra McAuliffe seat in Henrico.  The bolded seat is likely going R given trends in that area, but the Newport News seat would be enough to hold without the Loudoun pickup.

Hmmm... almost feels like there was some horse trading between the congressional map (R shift) and the state legislative maps (D shift).

[Tekken_Guy]

The problem for Abigail Spanberger is that VA-02 and VA-03 were underpopulated and had to take in parts of VA-04. Thus forcing VA-04, which was fairly even, to pull out of Hampton Roads and grab more Dem precincts in the Richmond area.

[lfromnj]

The problem for Abigail Spanberger is that VA-02 and VA-03 were underpopulated and had to take in parts of VA-04. Thus forcing VA-04, which was fairly even, to pull out of Hampton Roads and grab more Dem precincts in the Richmond area.

They weren't that underpopulated. Its just the special masters decided not to keep the stupid bay hopping to Williamsburg.

[Skill and Chance]

The problem for Abigail Spanberger is that VA-02 and VA-03 were underpopulated and had to take in parts of VA-04. Thus forcing VA-04, which was fairly even, to pull out of Hampton Roads and grab more Dem precincts in the Richmond area.

You basically had to openly gerrymander to save Spanberger,  so that was a given.  If Dems want to be mad, they should be upset about Luria, but that VA-10 is probably easier to hold than the old VA-02 was.   

Both parties got something to like here.  D's get an additional NOVA seat and R's get a Biden +1.5 VA-02 drawn into R-trending, heavily Youngkin areas. 

Another interesting observation is that VA-01 picked up a very Dem part of Henrico and all of the massively Dem trending Williamsburg area.  It's still Trump +10 in 2020, but I'm not at all sure that seat holds in a 2026 or 2030 R president midterm.

[Torie]

Here is the ball game. I thought the deal would be to keep two swing seats, VA-07** and VA-02, but with the Dems having the high ground in VA-07 that is trending Dem anyway, and the Pubs having the high ground in VA-02* that is not trending Dem that much, and where the Pubs did really well in 2021, with a snap back that was above the state average, and about 4 points (8 point margin)  more Pub than the state. Instead, VA-07 was made pretty safely Dem, but in exchange, the Pubs did get the high ground in VA-02, in the sense that it went from Biden +4.4% to Biden +1.4%, a PVI shift of 1.5 points. That is about the best the Pubs could expect, in a state where the spoils all other things being equal should be 6D-5R at best. It would be interesting to find out if Youngin won VA-07 or not when he won the state by 2 points. In a "fair" map from a partisan divide of the spoils perspective, the party that wins the state should win VA-07 by a similar margin. And for never Trumper Sean Trende, the Trumpers have only two safe haven CD's. I admire the man's skill, I really do.

* My map took the same approach of using the existing chop line in Chesapeake County, but then ceded territory to the west, rather than to the east, while this map does the opposite for a cleaner map, but with the same partisan result. And I thought moving the CD down to about Biden +1% was about the limit that would fly.

** The map calls what I call VA-07, VA-10.

[lfromnj]

Here is the ball game. I thought the deal would be to keep two swing seats, VA-07 and VA-02, but with the Dems having the high ground in VA-07 that is trending Dem anyway, and the Pubs having the high ground in VA-02* that is not trending Dem that much, and where the Pubs did really well in 2021, with a snap back that was above the state average, and about 4 points (8 point margin)  more Pub than the state. Instead, VA-07 was made pretty safely Dem, but in exchange, the Pubs did get the high ground in VA-02, in the sense that it went from Biden +4.4% to Biden +1.4%, a PVI shift of 1.5 points. That is about the best the Pubs could expect, in a state where the spoils all other things being equal should be 6D-5R at best. It would be interesting to find out if Youngin won VA-07 or not when he won the state by 2 points. In a "fair" map from a partisan divide of the spoils perspective, the party that wins the state should win VA-07 by a similar margin. And for never Trumper Sean Trende, the Trumpers have only two safe haven CD's. I admire the man's skill, I really do.

* My map took the same approach of using the existing chop line in Chesapeake County, but then ceded territory to the west, rather than to the east, while this map does the opposite for a cleaner map, but with the same partisan result. And I thought moving the CD down to about Biden +1% was about the limit that would fly.

It was still like Trump +6 in 2016 to Biden +2. However it was likely only Romney +4 or somewhere around there. Along with that I would like to wait on a definite military trend.

[Skill and Chance]

Here is the ball game. I thought the deal would be to keep two swing seats, VA-07 and VA-02, but with the Dems having the high ground in VA-07 that is trending Dem anyway, and the Pubs having the high ground in VA-02* that is not trending Dem that much, and where the Pubs did really well in 2021, with a snap back that was above the state average, and about 4 points (8 point margin)  more Pub than the state. Instead, VA-07 was made pretty safely Dem, but in exchange, the Pubs did get the high ground in VA-02, in the sense that it went from Biden +4.4% to Biden +1.4%, a PVI shift of 1.5 points. That is about the best the Pubs could expect, in a state where the spoils all other things being equal should be 6D-5R at best. It would be interesting to find out if Youngin won VA-07 or not when he won the state by 2 points. In a "fair" map from a partisan divide of the spoils perspective, the party that wins the state should win VA-07 by a similar margin. And for never Trumper Sean Trende, the Trumpers have only two safe haven CD's. I admire the man's skill, I really do.

* My map took the same approach of using the existing chop line in Chesapeake County, but then ceded territory to the west, rather than to the east, while this map does the opposite for a cleaner map, but with the same partisan result. And I thought moving the CD down to about Biden +1% was about the limit that would fly.

Yes, this map seems almost intentionally keep VA-01/VA-02/VA-10 away from the Trump faction.

Also, VA-04 had some NC-01/GA-02 risk later in the decade before it shed these SE areas to VA-02.

[Torie]

A copy and paste from RRH:

JFC! Sean Trende nested the state Senate districts into the congressional districts and the state House districts into the state Senate districts!

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1468698441572397068?t=Pe9JoPDgN-WQcYhHcmGPtw&s=19

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Amanda Chase was drawn into a biden district.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1468701797913174018?t=THDKEfrVqEIn_XLt8_U1aQ&s=19

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1468725532212842496
lol

[jamestroll]

The 10th is going to be very close.. ugh I except mass violence no matter who wins..

I hope the red necks dont invade Loudoun County if Wexton wins.

[lfromnj]

My guess is national Democrats would probably prefer a reshuffle where Connally/Wexton figure out the Fairfax and PWC seats and Span Berger can carpetbag over to the new VA 10th. I doubt Loudoun particularly cares about carpetbaggers at least for a general and Spanberger already represents the rural parts of the district. Wexton underperformed Biden by 6 points while Spanberger ran even with Biden. You definitely don't want a Wexton like performance in what is now a Biden +9 instead of 19 seat at least for 2022 even if the seat overall would be a rental for the GOP.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Amanda Chase was drawn into a biden district.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1468701797913174018?t=THDKEfrVqEIn_XLt8_U1aQ&s=19

Definitely nothing to do with Trende being a never-Trumper, no way. Lol.

[Tekken_Guy]

Amanda Chase was drawn into a biden district.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1468701797913174018?t=THDKEfrVqEIn_XLt8_U1aQ&s=19

Didn't Biden win her current district narrowly?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Fritschner/status/1468718432308842496

lol

Democrats are now planning to go all in on the #WARONWOMYN route.

“I think the most obvious thing is it seems to be very hurtful for the three Virginia women,” said Democratic Rep. Don Beyer, reflecting on the map. “I know we're not supposed to have elected officials pick their voters, but it is unfortunate the way they're drawn that incumbents like Abigail Spanberger, who had a difficult district to begin with, is tossed in a completely different district.”

I mean its pretty obvious if Luria loses it will be to another woman and VA07 will likely be replaced with a progressive woman from PWC from what I hear.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The more I think about it, the more VA really would work better with 12 districts. Right now, you have a situation where NOVA is almost enough for 4 districts but not quite, Charlottesville is kinda homeless in the sense it has nowhere obvious to go, and the current 2 districts are slightly too much for the VA Beach/Norfolk area.

Honestly though I'm kind of glad the commission imploded because these maps actually seem very fair, and there's very little politics behind these maps. Also gives quite a few competitive districts no matter what the NPV is (Blue wave would make 1 and 5 competitive, R wave would being 10 and and maybe even 7 into play, VA-2 is prolly competitive no matter what)

[Roll Roons]

The more I think about it, the more VA really would work better with 12 districts.

I would not be surprised at all if we get VA-12 after the 2030 census. Probably alongside NV-05, UT-05, ID-03, AZ-10 and TN-10.

[lfromnj]

The more I think about it, the more VA really would work better with 12 districts.

I would not be surprised at all if we get VA-12 after the 2030 census. Probably alongside NV-05, UT-05, ID-03, AZ-10 and TN-10.

VA barely grew faster than the nation.

[Sol]

Charlottesville is kinda homeless in the sense it has nowhere obvious to go

I find this a little perplexing--it's not solved by increasing the number of districts to 12!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Charlottesville is kinda homeless in the sense it has nowhere obvious to go

I find this a little perplexing--it's not solved by increasing the number of districts to 12!

Wouldn't a 12-seat map at least lower the chance of Albemarle being split in 2?

[lfromnj]

Charlottesville is kinda homeless in the sense it has nowhere obvious to go

I find this a little perplexing--it's not solved by increasing the number of districts to 12!

Wouldn't a 12-seat map at least lower the chance of Albemarle being split in 2?

Technically more districts = a greater chance of being split. But to explain Sol's statement further is that Albemarle really doesn't go great anywhere. You can keep it in Southside in effect what is basically a "deep southern" district with the exception of Albemarle. You can send it East to Richmond but that has quite weird consequences and it isn't that well connected with Richmond . either. You could send it North to NOVA which is also weird.

One thing before the last option. I actually didn't realize that the Roanoke area is also technically considered part of Shenandoah. I think its a bridge between SWVA and Shenandoah so I generally kept Roanoke with VA09 but their VA06 is a solid idea, but basically all of VA west of the blue ridge mountains basically has the population for 2 districts minus 170k people.

The last option theoretically could be crossing the mountains for Charlottesville and put in VA06.

As stated none of these options are great.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Charlottesville is kinda homeless in the sense it has nowhere obvious to go

I find this a little perplexing--it's not solved by increasing the number of districts to 12!

Wouldn't a 12-seat map at least lower the chance of Albemarle being split in 2?

Technically more districts = a greater chance of being split. But to explain Sol's statement further is that Albemarle really doesn't go great anywhere. You can keep it in Southside in effect what is basically a "deep southern" district with the exception of Albemarle. You can send it East to Richmond but that has quite weird consequences and it isn't that well connected with Richmond . either. You could send it North to NOVA which is also weird.

One thing before the last option. I actually didn't realize that the Roanoke area is also technically considered part of Shenandoah. I think its a bridge between SWVA and Shenandoah so I generally kept Roanoke with VA09 but their VA06 is a solid idea, but basically all of VA west of the blue ridge mountains basically has the population for 2 districts minus 170k people.

The last option theoretically could be crossing the mountains for Charlottesville and put in VA06.

As stated none of these options are great.

Oh, I agree that it doesn't necessarily pair especially well with anywhere. I'd go so far as to say it may as well be the Boulder of Virginia.
But I figure that with 12 seats the chance of a seat being centered on it is higher. It might be easier for seats elsewhere in the state to contract and for Albemarle to be paired with enough of its environs to anchor a CD.
But I could be wrong.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Amanda Chase was drawn into a biden district.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1468701797913174018?t=THDKEfrVqEIn_XLt8_U1aQ&s=19

Didn't Biden win her current district narrowly?

No, Warner did in 2018 but it voted for trump by around 6 points