2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[windjammer]

If the Commission fails to submit a plan for districts by the deadline set forth in subsection (d), the Commission shall have fourteen days following its initial failure to submit a plan to the General Assembly. If the Commission fails to submit a plan for districts to the General Assembly by this deadline, the districts shall be established by the Supreme Court of Virginia.

So kept on reading this amendment,
https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_Redistricting_Commission_Amendment_(2020)

We do know the Virginia Supreme court is almost all republican just like the NC court is all democrat so I would expect a similarly partisan decision as their reappointment depends on a GOP general assembly.
Anyway by this point Im pretty sure what will happen in 2021/2022
All commisioners chosen,
GOP commisioners deadlock on any map that isn't their preferred map which they show too.
Therefore no map goes to the assembly to vote on so it goes directly to the Virginia Supreme court where they just say the GOP map looks clean enough and they pick that.

I don't think this is likely at all. The VA supreme court won't choose between two maps, they will appoint someone to draw the maps.

They dont have to appoint someone,they can make up random constitutional bs just like nc ds did last year.

I don't think they will. They aren't forced to pick a map between the republican and democrat proposals. I'm not even sure republicans will try to do that considering the risk of any SC maps screwing up incumbents

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6315e14b-725b-4d94-b9e9-c705c4eb4561
I made this VA state senate map based off of 2018 estimates. Fairfax alone has 8 districts based within it, with Loudoun having 2 and Fauquier+Stafford being another.
24 Clinton districts. 21 D+ PVI seats.

[Former President tack50]

Since DRA added 2018 population estimates, here is my attempt at a fair map:



VA-01: Clinton+1; R+1
VA-02: Trump+6; R+4
VA-03: Clinton+34; D+17 (47% black)
VA-04: Clinton+23; D+11 (47% black)
VA-05: Trump+16; R+9
VA-06: Trump+26; R+13
VA-07: Trump+1; R+4
VA-08: Clinton+51; D+21
VA-09: Trump+42; R+20
VA-10: Clinton+8; D+1
VA-11: Clinton+33; D+12

https://davesredistricting.org/join/936eeade-cf92-46f8-b870-3e75d7cf7768

Basically, this should start as a 4D-3R-4S map, becoming 5D-3R-3S once VA-10 becomes completely safe for Dems. The other 3 swing districts are also probably trending towards the democrats, so by 2028 this might be a D gerrymander, but for now it should be plenty fair?

[lfromnj]

Ok so the commission includes both legislators and citizens,however if the legislators manage to exert more influence and get a "compromise" bipartisan gerrymander then we could get something like this. The GOP may not be totally willing to give up a VA beach district for a locked in 7-4 so lets make a 6-1-4.



Black circles = incumbent homes
VA 1: Robb Wittman won't be the happiest here as I did take a bit of the tidewater away(will explain later) and because of NOVA's growth the district moves a bit left to where Kaine won it by 2.5 points in 2018 I could make it a bit uglier I guess to shore him up. I think I could shore up Wittman by switching some precincts between him and Connolly but still NOVA growth basically forced Wittman into here.
Lets go with Likely R here.

So pushed VA 2nd to the left with some precinct shifts etc but its mostly the same, also kept the entire Historic Triangle together so this makes VA 2nd quite a bit whiter but without affecting its partisanship. Trump +1, Tossup.

VA 3rd- Black Hampton Roads district Safe D and kept Newport News, moves 2 points right but still Clinton +25.

VA 4- ok still keeps a similar black population but its also a bit more red at only Clinton +16, so blacks should dominate the primary more and Mceachin shouldn't have too much of a problem with this as its still Safe D. Other problem is not sure if Donald Mcceachin's home is in the district as I split Richmond could probably take it back if neccesary but he probably doesn't want white liberals in Richmond anyway.


VA 5.This along with VA 6,7 were what caused the rotation in the map. Riggleman lives very close to Cline's hometown but Spanberger needs Charlottesville to be shored up. So I removed the northern part of Rigglemans district which went to Wittman and Charlottesville to Spanberger. This is now 100% Safe R with Stewart winning it by 16 points. Rigglemans at a moderate risk of a primary here to a Richmond Republican but he probably doesn't have too many allies in the legislature but he should still be relatively solid.

VA 6- again the Shenandoah and moved North a bit into parts of VA 10th, Safe R  sink
 +31 Clinton

VA 7th- Spanberger needs Charlottesville to be truly safe in a general. Also took in some white lib precints in Richmond so its now Clinton +10, Safe D but could move to Likely D if its an R wave and Spanberger gets primaried by a Charlottesville loon along with the white libs in Richmond.

VA 8th- Titanium D sink Fairfax and Arlington, Beyers district is the same

VA 9th- Titanium R SW VA sink,ok actually moved like 10 points left because I wanted to keep Roanake whole which is a good COI anyway and Griffith lives there so he's happy. Stewart didn't even break 60% here suprisingly but still as said before Titanium R, its Trump +35.

VA 10th-Wexton is now 100% Safe in a general as she gets minorities in PWC, their split coalition makes it hard for them to primary Wexton anyway, Titanium D.

VA 11th- Safe D outer Fairfax, moves a bit right but unlike 10 years ago its impossible for any Republican to get elected in this area. Gerry should be happy.

Opinions?

[Oryxslayer]

I'm not quite sure what you are doing with VA04, but I'm also getting the feeling that a 6-4 incumbent protection map is going to be hoisted up by the partisans that is clean enough for the retired judges/citizens. It'll be a map that benefits the GOP for the decade in NOVA since the dems will be packed and cracked into 3 safe seats, but it will benefit the dems in Richmond since Spanberger would get a Safe seat. I say 6-4 since geography kinda leaves VA02 with not much wiggle room, so the partisans will probably find a way that the district ends up as a 'fair fight' based on whatever metrics are best in 2021.

[lfromnj]

I'm not quite sure what you are doing with VA04, but I'm also getting the feeling that a 6-4 incumbent protection map is going to be hoisted up by the partisans that is clean enough for the retired judges/citizens. It'll be a map that benefits the GOP for the decade in NOVA since the dems will be packed and cracked into 3 safe seats, but it will benefit the dems in Richmond since Spanberger would get a Safe seat. I say 6-4 since geography kinda leaves VA02 with not much wiggle room, so the partisans will probably find a way that the district ends up as a 'fair fight' based on whatever metrics are best in 2021.

I had to move VA 4 into the tidewater region a bit because otherwise theres no other real way to give Spanberger a line to Albemarle without blocking both Cline and Riggleman from getting going north which means Riggleman has to move East which pushes VA 4 north into the Tidewater which has a few rural blacks in it.


Its either that or making a split of the Shenandoah which would look really ugly.

But yes its a help to the GOP in NOVA in exchange for shoring up Spanberger(as 2 D Nova districts  are impossible) while just slightly tipping the scale in VA 2 a bit more to the D's but still tilting ever so slightly R although Trends should be much better for Luria along with a better turnout base.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's what I did when I tried the 6-4-1 deal last week - there's still ways to get Riggleman and Cline to remain seperate yet distinct from each other while spanberger also gets a safe seat. Obviously VA02's lines would be subject to whatever adjustments are needed to preserve partisan equity, but I'm fairly sure Williamsburg will need to be in there to ensure VA01 remains safe GOP for all 10 years, even with NOVA growth.

[lfromnj]

Here's what I did when I tried the 6-4-1 deal last week - there's still ways to get Riggleman and Cline to remain seperate yet distinct from each other while spanberger also gets a safe seat. Obviously VA02's lines would be subject to whatever adjustments are needed to preserve partisan equity, but I'm fairly sure Williamsburg will need to be in there to ensure VA01 remains safe GOP for all 10 years, even with NOVA growth.

I did say there were legislators but also citizens who may not be inclined to excessively do a bipartisan gerrymander especially if it did look a bit dirty, albeit your VA 5 to 7 does work . Id probably just have Spanberger expand into Chesterfield while losing the arm to Harrisonburg(she would probably prefer it anyway, not wanting a whole 200k of her citizens to come from liberal college towns) while still remaining pretty Safe as double digit Clinton is safe for someone like Spanberger, but I think yes a 6-4-1 seems like a median outcome if the commission doesn't deadlock. If they can agree about the first 10 districts then it will probably just be bickering about how D VA 2 should be. Im pretty sure VA 1 could take in Williamsburg there, its still would be Trump +15-16 and still has the tidewater area which has a lot of ancestrally D whites who are trending R. Btw your map is with 2016 populations as our VA 9ths look quite different?

[Oryxslayer]

Here's what I did when I tried the 6-4-1 deal last week - there's still ways to get Riggleman and Cline to remain seperate yet distinct from each other while spanberger also gets a safe seat. Obviously VA02's lines would be subject to whatever adjustments are needed to preserve partisan equity, but I'm fairly sure Williamsburg will need to be in there to ensure VA01 remains safe GOP for all 10 years, even with NOVA growth.

I did say there were legislators but also citizens who may not be inclined to excessively do a bipartisan gerrymander especially if it did look a bit dirty, albeit your VA 5 to 7 does work . Id probably just have Spanberger expand into Chesterfield while losing the arm to Harrisonburg(she would probably prefer it anyway, not wanting a whole 200k of her citizens to come from liberal college towns) while still remaining pretty Safe as double digit Clinton is safe for someone like Spanberger, but I think yes a 6-4-1 seems like a median outcome if the commission doesn't deadlock. If they can agree about the first 10 districts then it will probably just be bickering about how D VA 2 should be. Im pretty sure VA 1 could take in Williamsburg there, its still would be Trump +15-16 and still has the tidewater area which has a lot of ancestrally D whites who are trending R. Btw your map is with 2016 populations as our VA 9ths look quite different?

Nah, it's 2018 pop. The VA09's are more similar than they seem. You kept Roanoke County whole and took Craig and park of Giles to fix the pop, whereas I put those two in VA09 and exhumed the 10K using a micro-cut into Roanoke.

On Harrisonburg, yeah I doubt Spanberger would want too much non-Richmond pop in the seat. However, I wouldn't be surprised if the citizen forums argue that two relatively close college towns (albeit separated by mountains with narrow roads) should be considered a COI and paired. Once the citizens suggest something the party that benefits doesn't let go of it - see WA in 2010 and the minority-majority Dem pack in WA09.

[Former President tack50]

Regarding an incumbent protection map, what happens if VA-07 flips back to R in 2020?

(or VA-02 or 10, but I think the former is too constrained to do anything about it being in the corner of the state and the latter is close to Safe D even at this point)

[lfromnj]

Anyway I think it may have been somewhat smart to just accept the independent commission for the Democrats, they couldn't really gerrymander anyway because the VA GOP controlled the state supreme court and as we saw in NC there really doesn't have to be a constitutional basis to oppose gerrymandering, its just it hurts my party so it should be stopped. In that scenario its possible that the court would have just made my 5-6 map with a little bit more fair fight in VA 2.

[Frodo]

Ok so the commission includes both legislators and citizens,however if the legislators manage to exert more influence and get a "compromise" bipartisan gerrymander then we could get something like this. The GOP may not be totally willing to give up a VA beach district for a locked in 7-4 so lets make a 6-1-4.



Black circles = incumbent homes
VA 1: Robb Wittman won't be the happiest here as I did take a bit of the tidewater away(will explain later) and because of NOVA's growth the district moves a bit left to where Kaine won it by 2.5 points in 2018 I could make it a bit uglier I guess to shore him up. I think I could shore up Wittman by switching some precincts between him and Connolly but still NOVA growth basically forced Wittman into here.
Lets go with Likely R here.

So pushed VA 2nd to the left with some precinct shifts etc but its mostly the same, also kept the entire Historic Triangle together so this makes VA 2nd quite a bit whiter but without affecting its partisanship. Trump +1, Tossup.

VA 3rd- Black Hampton Roads district Safe D and kept Newport News, moves 2 points right but still Clinton +25.

VA 4- ok still keeps a similar black population but its also a bit more red at only Clinton +16, so blacks should dominate the primary more and Mceachin shouldn't have too much of a problem with this as its still Safe D. Other problem is not sure if Donald Mcceachin's home is in the district as I split Richmond could probably take it back if neccesary but he probably doesn't want white liberals in Richmond anyway.


VA 5.This along with VA 6,7 were what caused the rotation in the map. Riggleman lives very close to Cline's hometown but Spanberger needs Charlottesville to be shored up. So I removed the northern part of Rigglemans district which went to Wittman and Charlottesville to Spanberger. This is now 100% Safe R with Stewart winning it by 16 points. Rigglemans at a moderate risk of a primary here to a Richmond Republican but he probably doesn't have too many allies in the legislature but he should still be relatively solid.

VA 6- again the Shenandoah and moved North a bit into parts of VA 10th, Safe R  sink
 +31 Clinton

VA 7th- Spanberger needs Charlottesville to be truly safe in a general. Also took in some white lib precints in Richmond so its now Clinton +10, Safe D but could move to Likely D if its an R wave and Spanberger gets primaried by a Charlottesville loon along with the white libs in Richmond.

VA 8th- Titanium D sink Fairfax and Arlington, Beyers district is the same

VA 9th- Titanium R SW VA sink,ok actually moved like 10 points left because I wanted to keep Roanake whole which is a good COI anyway and Griffith lives there so he's happy. Stewart didn't even break 60% here suprisingly but still as said before Titanium R, its Trump +35.

VA 10th-Wexton is now 100% Safe in a general as she gets minorities in PWC, their split coalition makes it hard for them to primary Wexton anyway, Titanium D.

VA 11th- Safe D outer Fairfax, moves a bit right but unlike 10 years ago its impossible for any Republican to get elected in this area. Gerry should be happy.

Opinions?

I'm happy with this, especially given the fact these congressional districts are mostly contiguous.  Just one minor detail -for VA 6, I presume you meant +31 Trump?

[lfromnj]

Ok so the commission includes both legislators and citizens,however if the legislators manage to exert more influence and get a "compromise" bipartisan gerrymander then we could get something like this. The GOP may not be totally willing to give up a VA beach district for a locked in 7-4 so lets make a 6-1-4.



Black circles = incumbent homes
VA 1: Robb Wittman won't be the happiest here as I did take a bit of the tidewater away(will explain later) and because of NOVA's growth the district moves a bit left to where Kaine won it by 2.5 points in 2018 I could make it a bit uglier I guess to shore him up. I think I could shore up Wittman by switching some precincts between him and Connolly but still NOVA growth basically forced Wittman into here.
Lets go with Likely R here.

So pushed VA 2nd to the left with some precinct shifts etc but its mostly the same, also kept the entire Historic Triangle together so this makes VA 2nd quite a bit whiter but without affecting its partisanship. Trump +1, Tossup.

VA 3rd- Black Hampton Roads district Safe D and kept Newport News, moves 2 points right but still Clinton +25.

VA 4- ok still keeps a similar black population but its also a bit more red at only Clinton +16, so blacks should dominate the primary more and Mceachin shouldn't have too much of a problem with this as its still Safe D. Other problem is not sure if Donald Mcceachin's home is in the district as I split Richmond could probably take it back if neccesary but he probably doesn't want white liberals in Richmond anyway.


VA 5.This along with VA 6,7 were what caused the rotation in the map. Riggleman lives very close to Cline's hometown but Spanberger needs Charlottesville to be shored up. So I removed the northern part of Rigglemans district which went to Wittman and Charlottesville to Spanberger. This is now 100% Safe R with Stewart winning it by 16 points. Rigglemans at a moderate risk of a primary here to a Richmond Republican but he probably doesn't have too many allies in the legislature but he should still be relatively solid.

VA 6- again the Shenandoah and moved North a bit into parts of VA 10th, Safe R  sink
 +31 Clinton

VA 7th- Spanberger needs Charlottesville to be truly safe in a general. Also took in some white lib precints in Richmond so its now Clinton +10, Safe D but could move to Likely D if its an R wave and Spanberger gets primaried by a Charlottesville loon along with the white libs in Richmond.

VA 8th- Titanium D sink Fairfax and Arlington, Beyers district is the same

VA 9th- Titanium R SW VA sink,ok actually moved like 10 points left because I wanted to keep Roanake whole which is a good COI anyway and Griffith lives there so he's happy. Stewart didn't even break 60% here suprisingly but still as said before Titanium R, its Trump +35.

VA 10th-Wexton is now 100% Safe in a general as she gets minorities in PWC, their split coalition makes it hard for them to primary Wexton anyway, Titanium D.

VA 11th- Safe D outer Fairfax, moves a bit right but unlike 10 years ago its impossible for any Republican to get elected in this area. Gerry should be happy.

Opinions?

I'm happy with this, especially given the fact these congressional districts are mostly contiguous.  Just one minor detail -for VA 6, I presume you meant +31 Trump?

Double mistype closer to +32 or +33 but yeah for Trump, doesn't really matter as its still Safe R

[Oryxslayer]

Also, here's another thing to keep in mind: Riggleman may loose his nomination. Bob Good claims he has a majority of delegates ready to oust Riggleman over that gay marriage incident. Of course, the future of this convention is uncertain given the virus, and if a primary just ends up getting ordered than Riggleman will probably keep his seat.

https://twitter.com/VaPoliticalNews/status/1258150366060953600

Concerning redistricting, Good lives and works around Liberty University in Lynchburg. This would clean up the incumbent residency issue between VA05 and VA06.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/carterforva/status/1258080825532448768

Looks like Democrats may start a statewide campaign to beat it, its gonna be tough though if one assumes most Republicans vote for it then they have to sweep almost all D leaning voters.
Quote from Tom Gilbert

This past session we saw something really remarkable happen where a few House Democrats voted to approve a constitutional amendment ballot question, which will allow for non-partisan redistricting going forward. And you know, that type of scenario really leaves open any number of possibilities, and we certainly don’t know what the future holds, but Virginia has to reshuffle the deck here in a few years or in a year, and with our census and our redistricting and the drawing of new maps, so it’s very possible that that…if we play our cards right – which has not been something we have always done – we could position ourselves to be back in charge of the House.”

He just said new maps could give fairer chances.

I guess we should assume the commission will still pass but it won't be a certainity.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I set out to make what a good, clean, compact incument protection map would look like.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/55a300f4-6852-4e0b-a256-bb74744cdd4a
This is the end result.
Luria, Spanberger, and Wexton all get noticably better districts. The 5th becomes safe GOP.
The new 12th is sort of a "fair fight" sort of district. Key word being "sort of". It'd be lean Dem if 2017 and later years are any indication.
It'd likely be 7D-4R-1S, and lock in such an advantage later on in the decade.

[Oryxslayer]

I set out to make what a good, clean, compact incument protection map would look like.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/55a300f4-6852-4e0b-a256-bb74744cdd4a
This is the end result.
Luria, Spanberger, and Wexton all get noticably better districts. The 5th becomes safe GOP.
The new 12th is sort of a "fair fight" sort of district. Key word being "sort of". It'd be lean Dem if 2017 and later years are any indication.
It'd likely be 7D-4R-1S, and lock in such an advantage later on in the decade.

VA is not set to get a 12th seat, unless something unusual happens. Even if it was, you drew Spanberger out of her seat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I set out to make what a good, clean, compact incument protection map would look like.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/55a300f4-6852-4e0b-a256-bb74744cdd4a
This is the end result.
Luria, Spanberger, and Wexton all get noticably better districts. The 5th becomes safe GOP.
The new 12th is sort of a "fair fight" sort of district. Key word being "sort of". It'd be lean Dem if 2017 and later years are any indication.
It'd likely be 7D-4R-1S, and lock in such an advantage later on in the decade.

VA is not set to get a 12th seat, unless something unusual happens. Even if it was, you drew Spanberger out of her seat.

I know Spanberger was drawn out of her seat. She could just move though.
The 12th district thing is a...graver oversight.
D'oh.

[Oryxslayer]

I set out to make what a good, clean, compact incument protection map would look like.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/55a300f4-6852-4e0b-a256-bb74744cdd4a
This is the end result.
Luria, Spanberger, and Wexton all get noticably better districts. The 5th becomes safe GOP.
The new 12th is sort of a "fair fight" sort of district. Key word being "sort of". It'd be lean Dem if 2017 and later years are any indication.
It'd likely be 7D-4R-1S, and lock in such an advantage later on in the decade.

VA is not set to get a 12th seat, unless something unusual happens. Even if it was, you drew Spanberger out of her seat.

I know Spanberger was drawn out of her seat. She could just move though.
The 12th district thing is a...graver oversight.
D'oh.

It could if Corona throws off all the census estimates and we end up with more high education respondents. That is however a scenario outside the 95% confidence interval.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I set out to make what a good, clean, compact incument protection map would look like.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/55a300f4-6852-4e0b-a256-bb74744cdd4a
This is the end result.
Luria, Spanberger, and Wexton all get noticably better districts. The 5th becomes safe GOP.
The new 12th is sort of a "fair fight" sort of district. Key word being "sort of". It'd be lean Dem if 2017 and later years are any indication.
It'd likely be 7D-4R-1S, and lock in such an advantage later on in the decade.

VA is not set to get a 12th seat, unless something unusual happens. Even if it was, you drew Spanberger out of her seat.

I know Spanberger was drawn out of her seat. She could just move though.
The 12th district thing is a...graver oversight.
D'oh.

It could if Corona throws off all the census estimates and we end up with more high education respondents. That is however a scenario outside the 95% confidence interval.

Yeah.
2030 is a much better chance than 2020. VA has a very strong chance of gaining a CD then.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I set out to make what a good, clean, compact incument protection map would look like.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/55a300f4-6852-4e0b-a256-bb74744cdd4a
This is the end result.
Luria, Spanberger, and Wexton all get noticably better districts. The 5th becomes safe GOP.
The new 12th is sort of a "fair fight" sort of district. Key word being "sort of". It'd be lean Dem if 2017 and later years are any indication.
It'd likely be 7D-4R-1S, and lock in such an advantage later on in the decade.

VA is not set to get a 12th seat, unless something unusual happens. Even if it was, you drew Spanberger out of her seat.

I know Spanberger was drawn out of her seat. She could just move though.
The 12th district thing is a...graver oversight.
D'oh.

It could if Corona throws off all the census estimates and we end up with more high education respondents. That is however a scenario outside the 95% confidence interval.

Yeah.
2030 is a much better chance than 2020. VA has a very strong chance of gaining a CD then.

I doubt it. 2030 looks like it'll see Washington, Idaho, Utah, Texas, Florida, and maybe California gaining. Nevada, Minnesota, Georgia, and North Carolina have outside chances. Virginia seems almost certain to stay at 11 and its growth rate would have to tick up fast in the first part of the decade for that to change.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I set out to make what a good, clean, compact incument protection map would look like.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/55a300f4-6852-4e0b-a256-bb74744cdd4a
This is the end result.
Luria, Spanberger, and Wexton all get noticably better districts. The 5th becomes safe GOP.
The new 12th is sort of a "fair fight" sort of district. Key word being "sort of". It'd be lean Dem if 2017 and later years are any indication.
It'd likely be 7D-4R-1S, and lock in such an advantage later on in the decade.

VA is not set to get a 12th seat, unless something unusual happens. Even if it was, you drew Spanberger out of her seat.

I know Spanberger was drawn out of her seat. She could just move though.
The 12th district thing is a...graver oversight.
D'oh.

It could if Corona throws off all the census estimates and we end up with more high education respondents. That is however a scenario outside the 95% confidence interval.

Yeah.
2030 is a much better chance than 2020. VA has a very strong chance of gaining a CD then.

I doubt it. 2030 looks like it'll see Washington, Idaho, Utah, Texas, Florida, and maybe California gaining. Nevada, Minnesota, Georgia, and North Carolina have outside chances. Virginia seems almost certain to stay at 11 and its growth rate would have to tick up fast in the first part of the decade for that to change.

But wouldn't NOVA growth be enough to power it just over the edge to 12 seats?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/45ca9168-26d5-47f1-a5c6-58247fa1c345
Redid the map with 11 seats.
Turns out making Spanberger safe basically nukes the current VA-05 quite frequently. Also VA-09 can literally gobble ALL of Roanoke city and county and Salem.
The growth in NoVA is paid testament to by the fact that VA-10 loses most of Loudoun and you can't even nest just 3 seats in PMW, Fairfax+its cities, and Loudoun.
This map should be a reliable 7D-4R over the course of the decade.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I set out to make what a good, clean, compact incument protection map would look like.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/55a300f4-6852-4e0b-a256-bb74744cdd4a
This is the end result.
Luria, Spanberger, and Wexton all get noticably better districts. The 5th becomes safe GOP.
The new 12th is sort of a "fair fight" sort of district. Key word being "sort of". It'd be lean Dem if 2017 and later years are any indication.
It'd likely be 7D-4R-1S, and lock in such an advantage later on in the decade.

VA is not set to get a 12th seat, unless something unusual happens. Even if it was, you drew Spanberger out of her seat.

I know Spanberger was drawn out of her seat. She could just move though.
The 12th district thing is a...graver oversight.
D'oh.

It could if Corona throws off all the census estimates and we end up with more high education respondents. That is however a scenario outside the 95% confidence interval.

Yeah.
2030 is a much better chance than 2020. VA has a very strong chance of gaining a CD then.

I doubt it. 2030 looks like it'll see Washington, Idaho, Utah, Texas, Florida, and maybe California gaining. Nevada, Minnesota, Georgia, and North Carolina have outside chances. Virginia seems almost certain to stay at 11 and its growth rate would have to tick up fast in the first part of the decade for that to change.

But wouldn't NOVA growth be enough to power it just over the edge to 12 seats?

Probably not. Between 2010 and 2018, NoVa added 240,000 people. If that continues through 2030, NoVa gets to 2,830,000 people. To get a 12th district in 2030, Virginia has to have 9,450,000 people.  If the rest of Virginia keeps growing at its 2010-2016 rate, it hits 6,380,000 people in 2030. That leaves Virginia 240,000 people short of a 12th district in 2030, so unless growth rates pick up, it isn't getting a 12th until 2040.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I set out to make what a good, clean, compact incument protection map would look like.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/55a300f4-6852-4e0b-a256-bb74744cdd4a
This is the end result.
Luria, Spanberger, and Wexton all get noticably better districts. The 5th becomes safe GOP.
The new 12th is sort of a "fair fight" sort of district. Key word being "sort of". It'd be lean Dem if 2017 and later years are any indication.
It'd likely be 7D-4R-1S, and lock in such an advantage later on in the decade.

VA is not set to get a 12th seat, unless something unusual happens. Even if it was, you drew Spanberger out of her seat.

I know Spanberger was drawn out of her seat. She could just move though.
The 12th district thing is a...graver oversight.
D'oh.

It could if Corona throws off all the census estimates and we end up with more high education respondents. That is however a scenario outside the 95% confidence interval.

Yeah.
2030 is a much better chance than 2020. VA has a very strong chance of gaining a CD then.

I doubt it. 2030 looks like it'll see Washington, Idaho, Utah, Texas, Florida, and maybe California gaining. Nevada, Minnesota, Georgia, and North Carolina have outside chances. Virginia seems almost certain to stay at 11 and its growth rate would have to tick up fast in the first part of the decade for that to change.

But wouldn't NOVA growth be enough to power it just over the edge to 12 seats?

Probably not. Between 2010 and 2018, NoVa added 240,000 people. If that continues through 2030, NoVa gets to 2,830,000 people. To get a 12th district in 2030, Virginia has to have 9,450,000 people.  If the rest of Virginia keeps growing at its 2010-2016 rate, it hits 6,380,000 people in 2030. That leaves Virginia 240,000 people short of a 12th district in 2030, so unless growth rates pick up, it isn't getting a 12th until 2040.

Huh. I stand corrected then.