2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Cashew]

It looks like they took the GOP map and just made a few minor tweeks to it.   Democrats can still easily win a majority but it's definitely a map that favors the Republicans.

Are you surprised they have apparently all agreed to this?

The Republicans had all the leverage here, since the backdrop is punting it to a Republican Supreme Court, it makes sense that Democrats exacted some concessions rather than throw it to the court, where they get none.

Implying that humiliating the people who pushed for this thereby creating an aversion to repeating this in other democratic states and delegitimizing the commission along with the supreme court would have been a bad outcome.

[jamestroll]

ohh.. no..ughh Barbara Comstock may be my congresswoman..

[Non Swing Voter]

ohh.. no..ughh Barbara Comstock may be my congresswoman..

She was mine for a time...

[jamestroll]

ohh.. no..ughh Barbara Comstock may be my congresswoman..

She was mine for a time...

It would be a night mare if Barbara Trumpstock was my congress woman and Glenn Trumpkin was my governor.. makes me want to puke and vomit all over the floor.

[Skill and Chance]

Dems are such idiots.  They were given a mandate by voters and they gave Republicans a seat at the table with the Supreme Court to back them up (so actually just ceded power to the GOP).

Net result.  The senate map is less favorable to Dems than it was previously even though their has been massive population shift to Northern Virginia.  Elected Democrats should just retire from politics, they suck at it.

That depends on how much weight you put on Biden 2020 numbers.  There are only 20 Clinton seats, but I believe there are 25 Biden seats on this map.

[Mr.Phips]

Dems are such idiots.  They were given a mandate by voters and they gave Republicans a seat at the table with the Supreme Court to back them up (so actually just ceded power to the GOP).

Net result.  The senate map is less favorable to Dems than it was previously even though their has been massive population shift to Northern Virginia.  Elected Democrats should just retire from politics, they suck at it.

That depends on how much weight you put on Biden 2020 numbers.  There are only 20 Clinton seats, but I believe there are 25 Biden seats on this map.

I think the Biden numbers will mean more in 2023 than they do today. 

[Skill and Chance]

Dems are such idiots.  They were given a mandate by voters and they gave Republicans a seat at the table with the Supreme Court to back them up (so actually just ceded power to the GOP).

Net result.  The senate map is less favorable to Dems than it was previously even though their has been massive population shift to Northern Virginia.  Elected Democrats should just retire from politics, they suck at it.

That depends on how much weight you put on Biden 2020 numbers.  There are only 20 Clinton seats, but I believe there are 25 Biden seats on this map.

I think the Biden numbers will mean more in 2023 than they do today. 

We really need this year's data on what Trump->Biden and 3rd Party->Biden presidential voters do at the state level. 

Prior to Biden, there was a profound pro-R geographic bias in VA, so I'm not surprised a fair-ish map would be 20/20 using Clinton #'s, especially taking into account VRA obligations.

[Skill and Chance]

Also worth noting we haven't seen the congressional map yet.  It could be that Democrats are very worried about what the state supreme court would do, but it could also be that they agreed to legislative maps that look like toss-ups for control based on non-2020 data in order to get a congressional map that preserves 7D/4R.  For example, giving Spanberger Charlottesville and Luria the majority-white part of Norfolk would do this.

[Non Swing Voter]

Dems are such idiots.  They were given a mandate by voters and they gave Republicans a seat at the table with the Supreme Court to back them up (so actually just ceded power to the GOP).

Net result.  The senate map is less favorable to Dems than it was previously even though their has been massive population shift to Northern Virginia.  Elected Democrats should just retire from politics, they suck at it.

That depends on how much weight you put on Biden 2020 numbers.  There are only 20 Clinton seats, but I believe there are 25 Biden seats on this map.

I think the 2020 numbers are less precise though because in a lot of counties there were "central precincts" for early voting.  But assuming there are 25 Biden seats, which wouldn't surprise me, I think those are gonna be pretty accurate, mores than the Clinton numbers.  The suburbs here have changed and they are definitely not going back.  That applies to NOVA and Richmond suburbs.

[OSR stands with Israel]

No state pisses me off more than my own state of VA this cycle.  If Dems had any cajones and didn't cede redistricting to a commission they could have done real damage here.

At minimum an 8-3 split with 8 very safe incumbents.  Doing so might have made all the difference in 2022. 

No.  It was simply the right thing to do regardless.  Of course, they should put initiatives on the ballot in all of the remaining Republican gerrymandered states that allow it (notably FL, OK, AR, and MO) and and failing that, try to elect pro-reform judges to state supreme courts that are chosen in statewide elections (notably TX and GA).   

I do wish the commission didn't have politicians on it.  The pure private citizen-based commissions seem to do a better job.  This one is a hybrid structure, so at least it's better than NJ. 

No.  It's not.  That's terrible thinking.  It's absurd for one party to enact commissions in safe states and the other party gerrymander.  That makes for one party rule and if anything then they'll end up passing some crap at the federal level that undermines these commissions. 

Have you seen the GOP maps this cycle lol

[Non Swing Voter]

No state pisses me off more than my own state of VA this cycle.  If Dems had any cajones and didn't cede redistricting to a commission they could have done real damage here.

At minimum an 8-3 split with 8 very safe incumbents.  Doing so might have made all the difference in 2022. 

No.  It was simply the right thing to do regardless.  Of course, they should put initiatives on the ballot in all of the remaining Republican gerrymandered states that allow it (notably FL, OK, AR, and MO) and and failing that, try to elect pro-reform judges to state supreme courts that are chosen in statewide elections (notably TX and GA).   

I do wish the commission didn't have politicians on it.  The pure private citizen-based commissions seem to do a better job.  This one is a hybrid structure, so at least it's better than NJ. 

No.  It's not.  That's terrible thinking.  It's absurd for one party to enact commissions in safe states and the other party gerrymander.  That makes for one party rule and if anything then they'll end up passing some crap at the federal level that undermines these commissions. 

Have you seen the GOP maps this cycle lol

The GOP maps are still gerrymanders, it's just they were maxed out already.  They gerrymandered in 2010 so the best they could get was the status quo.  Dems had real opportunity to equalize matters and have given too much power away in states like CO and VA.  But I am still hopefully they will obliterate the GOP delegation in NY, which should restore some level of balance.

[Skill and Chance]

They are working on the HoD map today.  FWIW they appear to be using a map that has 49/100 Trump 2016 districts as their starting point. 

[Devils30]

Also worth noting we haven't seen the congressional map yet.  It could be that Democrats are very worried about what the state supreme court would do, but it could also be that they agreed to legislative maps that look like toss-ups for control based on non-2020 data in order to get a congressional map that preserves 7D/4R.  For example, giving Spanberger Charlottesville and Luria the majority-white part of Norfolk would do this.

If Dems had drawn the map, I think they probably go 8-3. I'd guess they'd have made 5,6,9 extremely red while putting 1 into Prince William and Fairfax.

[Skill and Chance]

Also worth noting we haven't seen the congressional map yet.  It could be that Democrats are very worried about what the state supreme court would do, but it could also be that they agreed to legislative maps that look like toss-ups for control based on non-2020 data in order to get a congressional map that preserves 7D/4R.  For example, giving Spanberger Charlottesville and Luria the majority-white part of Norfolk would do this.

If Dems had drawn the map, I think they probably go 8-3. I'd guess they'd have made 5,6,9 extremely red while putting 1 into Prince William and Fairfax.

No way 8D/3R is possible with the county/municipality-splitting rules.  Best case scenario is 7/4 and that's only if Albemarle ends up with the non-VRA district parts of Richmond or VA-01 takes all of Prince William County and VA-10 includes both all of Loudoun and all of Albemarle.  In the second scenario, VA-07 becomes safe R, and VA-01 becomes safe D.  Considering the commission includes elected officials, I highly doubt they would vote to throw both Wittman and Spanberger under the bus, so I consider the Henrico-Charlottesville scenario the only way to get a 7D/4R result within the rules.  And this would of course depend on giving R's most everything they want on the legislative maps. 

[Devils30]

7-4 D that's 6-3-2 in terms of competitive seems like a fair map for VA

[Skill and Chance]

7-4 D that's 6-3-2 in terms of competitive seems like a fair map for VA

The map with the Prince William to Fredericksburg VA-01 and the Loudoun to Charlottesville VA-10 would do that, but again it involves throwing incumbents from both parties into safe districts for the other party with no obvious alternative place to run, so I doubt it will happen.

[Tintrlvr]

Also worth noting we haven't seen the congressional map yet.  It could be that Democrats are very worried about what the state supreme court would do, but it could also be that they agreed to legislative maps that look like toss-ups for control based on non-2020 data in order to get a congressional map that preserves 7D/4R.  For example, giving Spanberger Charlottesville and Luria the majority-white part of Norfolk would do this.

If Dems had drawn the map, I think they probably go 8-3. I'd guess they'd have made 5,6,9 extremely red while putting 1 into Prince William and Fairfax.

No way 8D/3R is possible with the county/municipality-splitting rules.  Best case scenario is 7/4 and that's only if Albemarle ends up with the non-VRA district parts of Richmond or VA-01 takes all of Prince William County and VA-10 includes both all of Loudoun and all of Albemarle.  In the second scenario, VA-07 becomes safe R, and VA-01 becomes safe D.  Considering the commission includes elected officials, I highly doubt they would vote to throw both Wittman and Spanberger under the bus, so I consider the Henrico-Charlottesville scenario the only way to get a 7D/4R result within the rules.  And this would of course depend on giving R's most everything they want on the legislative maps.  

8D/3R is 100% possible within the rules. See below. Is this a good government map? Not really, although I think I actually did quite a good job of keeping COIs together while gerrymandering, and the only truly disparate districts are the Charlottesville-Loudoun district (VA-6) and the central Virginia rural white areas district (VA-3). But it does follow the splitting rules and also keeps two minority opportunity seats. (I didn't bother finishing NOVA and as a result the Prince William seat is undersized but those will obviously all be safe D.)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/27adc2e6-7e61-4fea-9ad1-14e26019cce8

[LimoLiberal]

Back to two State Senate maps, seems like the "compromise" map is dead.

The new D plan is exactly the same as the compromise except that it retains the Roanoke to Blacksburg gerrymander for incumbent John Edwards.

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-b4/

The new R plan is a pretty serious gerrymander. It packs all the most Democratic areas of Prince William County in one seat to create a more competitive outer district that voted for Hillary by 1. There's a Richmond to Petersburg pack to make the Southside district less competitive. The Eastern Shore to Virginia Beach seat goes from Trump +1 to Trump +7

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-a4/

[lfromnj]

Back to two State Senate maps, seems like the "compromise" map is dead.

The new D plan is exactly the same as the compromise except that it retains the Roanoke to Blacksburg gerrymander for incumbent John Edwards.

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-b4/

The new R plan is a pretty serious gerrymander. It packs all the most Democratic areas of Prince William County in one seat to create a more competitive outer district that voted for Hillary by 1. There's a Richmond to Petersburg pack to make the Southside district less competitive. The Eastern Shore to Virginia Beach seat goes from Trump +1 to Trump +7

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-a4/

The Richmond to Petersburg pack already exists. They just changed up the Southside district. Really dumb move as the seat looks competitive eon paper but even Kaine lost it.

[Nyvin]

The Republicans are desperate to make sure a majority is winnable.

[Dan the Roman]

Back to two State Senate maps, seems like the "compromise" map is dead.

The new D plan is exactly the same as the compromise except that it retains the Roanoke to Blacksburg gerrymander for incumbent John Edwards.

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-b4/

The new R plan is a pretty serious gerrymander. It packs all the most Democratic areas of Prince William County in one seat to create a more competitive outer district that voted for Hillary by 1. There's a Richmond to Petersburg pack to make the Southside district less competitive. The Eastern Shore to Virginia Beach seat goes from Trump +1 to Trump +7

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-a4/

I suspect Democrats were too pessimistic re the VA Supreme Court. It is GOP majority but it is very old-line

3 members were initially D appointees
Majority of Rs were elected unanimously.

They will not do Ds any favors but they are not the WI Supreme Court. They will apply the rules, probably on coin flips err in favor of GOP, but the compromise was probably already about as far as they would go. Ie. I don't see the VA SC producing more than 20 Trump 2016 districts.

[Devils30]

Back to two State Senate maps, seems like the "compromise" map is dead.

The new D plan is exactly the same as the compromise except that it retains the Roanoke to Blacksburg gerrymander for incumbent John Edwards.

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-b4/

The new R plan is a pretty serious gerrymander. It packs all the most Democratic areas of Prince William County in one seat to create a more competitive outer district that voted for Hillary by 1. There's a Richmond to Petersburg pack to make the Southside district less competitive. The Eastern Shore to Virginia Beach seat goes from Trump +1 to Trump +7

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-a4/

I suspect Democrats were too pessimistic re the VA Supreme Court. It is GOP majority but it is very old-line

3 members were initially D appointees
Majority of Rs were elected unanimously.

They will not do Ds any favors but they are not the WI Supreme Court. They will apply the rules, probably on coin flips err in favor of GOP, but the compromise was probably already about as far as they would go. Ie. I don't see the VA SC producing more than 20 Trump 2016 districts.

I’m expecting a minimal change congressional map as well from the court, maybe a few shifts for population growth but I expect VA 2 and 7 to remain competitive.

[Nyvin]

Back to two State Senate maps, seems like the "compromise" map is dead.

The new D plan is exactly the same as the compromise except that it retains the Roanoke to Blacksburg gerrymander for incumbent John Edwards.

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-b4/

The new R plan is a pretty serious gerrymander. It packs all the most Democratic areas of Prince William County in one seat to create a more competitive outer district that voted for Hillary by 1. There's a Richmond to Petersburg pack to make the Southside district less competitive. The Eastern Shore to Virginia Beach seat goes from Trump +1 to Trump +7

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-a4/

I suspect Democrats were too pessimistic re the VA Supreme Court. It is GOP majority but it is very old-line

3 members were initially D appointees
Majority of Rs were elected unanimously.

They will not do Ds any favors but they are not the WI Supreme Court. They will apply the rules, probably on coin flips err in favor of GOP, but the compromise was probably already about as far as they would go. Ie. I don't see the VA SC producing more than 20 Trump 2016 districts.

I’m expecting a minimal change congressional map as well from the court, maybe a few shifts for population growth but I expect VA 2 and 7 to remain competitive.

I'm really hoping if nothing else they get rid of the stupid northern arm of VA-5.

Also Wittman probably doesn't want least change since that means pulling his district more into NoVA.   The VA GOP probably wouldn't mind giving him the northern rural parts of VA-7.

[Mr.Phips]

Back to two State Senate maps, seems like the "compromise" map is dead.

The new D plan is exactly the same as the compromise except that it retains the Roanoke to Blacksburg gerrymander for incumbent John Edwards.

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-b4/

The new R plan is a pretty serious gerrymander. It packs all the most Democratic areas of Prince William County in one seat to create a more competitive outer district that voted for Hillary by 1. There's a Richmond to Petersburg pack to make the Southside district less competitive. The Eastern Shore to Virginia Beach seat goes from Trump +1 to Trump +7

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-a4/

I suspect Democrats were too pessimistic re the VA Supreme Court. It is GOP majority but it is very old-line

3 members were initially D appointees
Majority of Rs were elected unanimously.

They will not do Ds any favors but they are not the WI Supreme Court. They will apply the rules, probably on coin flips err in favor of GOP, but the compromise was probably already about as far as they would go. Ie. I don't see the VA SC producing more than 20 Trump 2016 districts.

I’m expecting a minimal change congressional map as well from the court, maybe a few shifts for population growth but I expect VA 2 and 7 to remain competitive.

I'm really hoping if nothing else they get rid of the stupid northern arm of VA-5.

Also Wittman probably doesn't want least change since that means pulling his district more into NoVA.   The VA GOP probably wouldn't mind giving him the northern rural parts of VA-7.

And Spanberger wouldn’t mind giving them to him.  She just doesn’t want Hanover County in her district.

[slothdem]

Back to two State Senate maps, seems like the "compromise" map is dead.

The new D plan is exactly the same as the compromise except that it retains the Roanoke to Blacksburg gerrymander for incumbent John Edwards.

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-b4/

The new R plan is a pretty serious gerrymander. It packs all the most Democratic areas of Prince William County in one seat to create a more competitive outer district that voted for Hillary by 1. There's a Richmond to Petersburg pack to make the Southside district less competitive. The Eastern Shore to Virginia Beach seat goes from Trump +1 to Trump +7

https://www.vpap.org/redistricting/plan/2021-senate-commission-statewide-a4/

I suspect Democrats were too pessimistic re the VA Supreme Court. It is GOP majority but it is very old-line

3 members were initially D appointees
Majority of Rs were elected unanimously.

They will not do Ds any favors but they are not the WI Supreme Court. They will apply the rules, probably on coin flips err in favor of GOP, but the compromise was probably already about as far as they would go. Ie. I don't see the VA SC producing more than 20 Trump 2016 districts.

I’m expecting a minimal change congressional map as well from the court, maybe a few shifts for population growth but I expect VA 2 and 7 to remain competitive.

I'm really hoping if nothing else they get rid of the stupid northern arm of VA-5.

Also Wittman probably doesn't want least change since that means pulling his district more into NoVA.   The VA GOP probably wouldn't mind giving him the northern rural parts of VA-7.

And Spanberger wouldn’t mind giving them to him.  She just doesn’t want Hanover County in her district.

Hanover for the northern rurals is a good trade for Span. The northern rurals are close to unmovable, and while Hanover will never vote dem under any circumstance, there are and will continue to be solid trends for us as it develops.