2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Stuart98]

I don't think a compact map can do it; my VA map puts Roanoke in the district and it's still at best lean R. You'd have to do something silly like also include Blacksburg and also give some rurals to Spanburger while pushing much harder into NOVA. Not possible with the new commission.

[VAR]

Well, maybe draw him and Griffith or Cline into the same district? He lives in Campbell County.

[Tintrlvr]

How easy is it to draw out Bob Good? He’s such a joke.

Not sure where he lives, but Virginia geography requires a conservative Southside district, so if he’s willing to move it is hard.

He lives in Campbell County, near Lynchburg.

[beesley]

Another of my 'my definition of fair' maps, though not as visually nice as my other maps in similarly sized states. The partisan data used is 2018 Senate. District 7 was the only Gillespie/Kaine district. District 2 voted for Trump in 2016. District 4 is majority black, District 3 is plurality black and District 11 is plurality white, though it's quite messy up there and I'm sure that can be improved. Spanberger is still probably the most vulnerable. As for Luria, I deliberately wanted to avoid the three-part district there is currently.

[Former President tack50]

Why the weird lines in Northern Virginia?

[beesley]

Why the weird lines in Northern Virginia?

To create a majority-minority district.

[VAR]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7c257837-44c0-4fc5-9cbd-0d35742f574e

Thoughts on my fair map?

[beesley]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7c257837-44c0-4fc5-9cbd-0d35742f574e

Thoughts on my fair map?

It's prettier than mine and in some places good for COIs, but the biggest problem is that there are no majority minority CVAP or black opportunity districts.

[VAR]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7c257837-44c0-4fc5-9cbd-0d35742f574e

Thoughts on my fair map?

It's prettier than mine and in some places good for COIs, but the biggest problem is that there are no majority minority CVAP or black opportunity districts.

How? VA-11 is clearly majority-minority (only 46% white), and VA-03 and VA-04 are both >40% black.

[beesley]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7c257837-44c0-4fc5-9cbd-0d35742f574e

Thoughts on my fair map?

It's prettier than mine and in some places good for COIs, but the biggest problem is that there are no majority minority CVAP or black opportunity districts.

How? VA-11 is clearly majority-minority (only 46% white), and VA-03 and VA-04 are both >40% black.

According to Citizen Voting Age Population, the standard metric to determine majority minority districts, VA-11 is 55.4% white. To me there ought to be a district in which the black population makes up a plurality if not a majority, because the point is that the minority group is able to elect a candidate of their choice.

[Tintrlvr]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7c257837-44c0-4fc5-9cbd-0d35742f574e

Thoughts on my fair map?

It's prettier than mine and in some places good for COIs, but the biggest problem is that there are no majority minority CVAP or black opportunity districts.

How? VA-11 is clearly majority-minority (only 46% white), and VA-03 and VA-04 are both >40% black.

According to Citizen Voting Age Population, the standard metric to determine majority minority districts, VA-11 is 55.4% white. To me there ought to be a district in which the black population makes up a plurality if not a majority, because the point is that the minority group is able to elect a candidate of their choice.

This is only required (or appropriate) if black voters are generally denied the candidate of their choice in districts that are less than plurality black CVAP. However, VA-3 and VA-4 would clearly be controlled by the black voters in their districts, who make up a majority of Democratic primary voters, as they are currently.

As for NOVA, while I don't necessarily object to spindles of district trying to maximize the non-white population in one district, I think you also have to take into account that the non-white population is not monolithic and actually highly diverse and may have different preferences (so concentrating them all in one district could reduce one group's influence rather than enhance it), that there is simply not a large enough non-white population to create a heavily non-white district, and that non-white voters' preferences don't seem to strongly diverge from white voters' preferences in the same area. By concentrating more non-white voters in one district, you may actually be harming non-white voters' ability to elect candidates of their choice across the NOVA region, if it would otherwise be plausible for such to be elected in more districts.

[beesley]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7c257837-44c0-4fc5-9cbd-0d35742f574e

Thoughts on my fair map?

It's prettier than mine and in some places good for COIs, but the biggest problem is that there are no majority minority CVAP or black opportunity districts.

How? VA-11 is clearly majority-minority (only 46% white), and VA-03 and VA-04 are both >40% black.

According to Citizen Voting Age Population, the standard metric to determine majority minority districts, VA-11 is 55.4% white. To me there ought to be a district in which the black population makes up a plurality if not a majority, because the point is that the minority group is able to elect a candidate of their choice.

This is only required (or appropriate) if black voters are generally denied the candidate of their choice in districts that are less than plurality black CVAP. However, VA-3 and VA-4 would clearly be controlled by the black voters in their districts, who make up a majority of Democratic primary voters, as they are currently.

As for NOVA, while I don't necessarily object to spindles of district trying to maximize the non-white population in one district, I think you also have to take into account that the non-white population is not monolithic and actually highly diverse and may have different preferences (so concentrating them all in one district could reduce one group's influence rather than enhance it), that there is simply not a large enough non-white population to create a heavily non-white district, and that non-white voters' preferences don't seem to strongly diverge from white voters' preferences in the same area. By concentrating more non-white voters in one district, you may actually be harming non-white voters' ability to elect candidates of their choice across the NOVA region, if it would otherwise be plausible for such to be elected in more districts.

That's a fair analysis that I hadn't thought of. I don't feel my map does do that however - there is still a lot of non-white population in VA-10 even with a majority minority VA-11, so I wouldn't consider it packing. There may have been a similar district on my Texas map - a majority-minority district composed of bits of Lubbock and the Odessa/Midland area. As there already was a majority-minority NoVA district I considered that worth keeping. But the nuances you described are something that I should've considered, so I'm with you.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7c257837-44c0-4fc5-9cbd-0d35742f574e

Thoughts on my fair map?

Pretty good, Don't see any major issues.  Roanake area gets shafted as usual due to population issues. NOVA is pretty nice for the chops, I agree with the chop of Loudoun as it both looks neat and seperates the suburban part of Loudoun from the more rural/exurban part. The one issue with Nova could be the split of Manassas park from Manassas?

[VAR]

^Thanks for the feedback. Agreed on all counts, especially the Manassas/Manassas Park split.

[Tintrlvr]

Here's a somewhat different take on Virginia, designed of course to favor the Democrats but not in a way that looks aggressive/overt. Still, it's an 8-3 Clinton/Northam set of districts, and only more favorable under 2020 figures.

Charlottesville-NOVA is definitely a feasible alignment that doesn't get explored much, and it does make the Shenandoah Valley much neater.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0db3a517-d9ad-4318-a9b8-51b61866e0ad

[Nyvin]

Here's a somewhat different take on Virginia, designed of course to favor the Democrats but not in a way that looks aggressive/overt. Still, it's an 8-3 Clinton/Northam set of districts, and only more favorable under 2020 figures.

Charlottesville-NOVA is definitely a feasible alignment that doesn't get explored much, and it does make the Shenandoah Valley much neater.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0db3a517-d9ad-4318-a9b8-51b61866e0ad

VA-7 is a pretty bad leftovers district, lol.   Other than that great map.  Spanberger would probably love the Richmond suburb district.

[Tintrlvr]

Here's a somewhat different take on Virginia, designed of course to favor the Democrats but not in a way that looks aggressive/overt. Still, it's an 8-3 Clinton/Northam set of districts, and only more favorable under 2020 figures.

Charlottesville-NOVA is definitely a feasible alignment that doesn't get explored much, and it does make the Shenandoah Valley much neater.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0db3a517-d9ad-4318-a9b8-51b61866e0ad

VA-7 is a pretty bad leftovers district, lol.   Other than that great map.  Spanberger would probably love the Richmond suburb district.

The one thing I do like about VA-7 (it's definitely a leftovers district) is that it covers a few relatively self-contained specific regions ((1) the Lynchburg metro, (2) rural central Virginia away from former plantation country and (3) the Tidewater) without splitting any of them up across districts, something very few other maps accomplish. Of course, it still combines three distinct regions into one district, but at least they are three regions that would probably prefer to be combined with each other than be combined with and outvoted (not necessarily in partisan terms, but in representation/in primaries) by the more populous regions that surround them.

UK-style district names, because I was bored:

1. South West Virginia
2. Shenandoah Valley and Roanoke
3. Arlington and Fairfax North
4. Alexandria and Fairfax South
5. Prince William and Loudoun East
6. Charlottesville, Leesburg and Fredericksburg
7. Lynchburg and the Tidewater
8. Hampton Roads East
9. Hampton Roads West
10. Richmond East, Petersburg and Danville
11. Richmond West

[kwabbit]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2fce2824-2fa8-49ab-a23d-d5292ee936fb

Bit of a quick map. I have never arranged a VA map like this, putting so much of the Southside in the Richmond district. Causes a much different layout in Western Virginia. The Southside/Richmond is Almost Black Majority, could definitely be made to actually be that way. Pretty fair partisanship wise, maybe 5-4-2? With one of the swings lean D and the other
a tossup?

[Stuart98]

Not a fan of splitting Shenandoah in two like that.

[VAR]

It’s theoretically possible to connect Delmarva to Bobby Scott’s VRA seat. Would it be a bad COI?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It’s theoretically possible to connect Delmarva to Bobby Scott’s VRA seat. Would it be a bad COI?

Sounds bad. Either connect it to Virginia Beach (the ideal choice, regardless of anything else), or maaayyyybeee VA-01.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e5e040a5-8c7b-41d8-93af-ef83298712fe
9 Clinton districts in a (mostly) reasonable-looking map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Started off with a county-integrity focus, but this became a compactness map by the time I finished it.
Map is highly proportional as well.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/dbf39aa7-bef0-49cc-af0a-e076b8623985

[VAR]

Dems should find a way to pass this NoVA incumbent protection (kind of, otherwise they'd lose all 3 seats) map:



OK, here is some info about the districts:

Fox News anchor Laura Ingraham (R-McLean) cruises to victory in the redrawn Trump +1/Northam +3 VA-10, Jennifer Wexton probably retires and moves to VA-09 to tout her 100% score from the AFL-CIO, which will surely get those racist hicks to vote for her.

Ingraham would be an especially good fit for this district because she'd excite the right-wing rural base, and her fiery rants about average Joe stuff would be appealing to no nonsense Dulles Airport WWC workers.

Don Beyer's VA-08 would shift 7-9 points to the left (Clinton +57, Northam +60) and become a majority-minority district, which would essentially save Beyer from a grueling reelection battle against John Vihstadt (R-Arlington), whom I talked about in this thread. Still, Vihstadt is such a strong candidate that he'd keep his loss within single digits. I could even see him pulling off an upset if Latino Hero Ron DeSantis campaigns for him in Springfield & Dale City.

Carly Fiorina would run in a Clinton +4/Northam +7 district. Again, she wins very easily by campaigning hard against the SALT cap. I could see Fiorina's grifter opponent raising a lotta money, but the DCCC would probably triage it in August.

Thoughts? I worked very hard on this.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Dems should find a way to pass this NoVA incumbent protection (kind of, otherwise they'd lose all 3 seats) map:



OK, here is some info about the districts:

Fox News anchor Laura Ingraham (R-McLean) cruises to victory in the redrawn Trump +1/Northam +3 VA-10, Jennifer Wexton probably retires and moves to VA-09 to tout her 100% score from the AFL-CIO, which will surely get those racist hicks to vote for her.

Ingraham would be an especially good fit for this district because she'd excite the right-wing rural base, and her fiery rants about average Joe stuff would be appealing to no nonsense Dulles Airport WWC workers.

Don Beyer's VA-08 would shift 7-9 points to the left (Clinton +57, Northam +60) and become a majority-minority district, which would essentially save Beyer from a grueling reelection battle against John Vihstadt (R-Arlington), whom I talked about in this thread. Still, Vihstadt is such a strong candidate that he'd keep his loss within single digits. I could even see him pulling off an upset if Latino Hero Ron DeSantis campaigns for him in Springfield & Dale City.

Carly Fiorina would run in a Clinton +4/Northam +7 district. Again, she wins very easily by campaigning hard against the SALT cap. I could see Fiorina's grifter opponent raising a lotta money, but the DCCC would probably triage it in August.

Thoughts? I worked very hard on this.

You are late to April Fools stuff.