2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A 7R-4D map can be made, albeit it'd only function in 2022 and be a dummymander for the rest of the decade.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5735689a-0876-4256-97e0-31087e34cb7e

Not VRA compliant. That ROVA Dem district is an illegal AA pack.

It's not an AA pack, because it's not AA majority. If it were an AA pack it wouldn't have took in so many white areas. I didn't even go into the map mode that shows the AA % when drawing it.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

A 7R-4D map can be made, albeit it'd only function in 2022 and be a dummymander for the rest of the decade.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5735689a-0876-4256-97e0-31087e34cb7e

Not VRA compliant. That ROVA Dem district is an illegal AA pack.

It's not an AA pack, because it's not AA majority. If it were an AA pack it wouldn't have took in so many white areas. I didn't even go into the map mode that shows the AA % when drawing it.

In that case, you illegally cracked the AA community in Hampton Roads, Richmond, and Southside VA. Regardless, you absolutely cannot have just 1 AA seat in VA.

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting that even with 2 VRA districts and what not; a 7R-4D map is theoretically possible; it's just that it would be a huge dummymander by Republicans.

But here is how such a map could hypothetically look like. This map has 7 districts that voted for Gillespie in the Governor election



District 2 is Gillespie+6, Trump+12, R+7
District 6 is Gillespie+2, Trump+6, R+6
District 7 is Gillespie+3, Trump+6, R+6
District 10 is Glillespie+4, Trump+6, R+6

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7ea55af7-8cd5-42d5-808f-26016a75643c

Of course in practice this map is not really 7R-4D; more like 4R-4D-3S

With some even more extreme snakes you could make use of the southwesternmost part of the state and finally get a full 7-4 but it would be way too ugly.

[S019]

Worth noting that even with 2 VRA districts and what not; a 7R-4D map is theoretically possible; it's just that it would be a huge dummymander by Republicans.

But here is how such a map could hypothetically look like. This map has 7 districts that voted for Gillespie in the Governor election



District 2 is Gillespie+6, Trump+12, R+7
District 6 is Gillespie+2, Trump+6, R+6
District 7 is Gillespie+3, Trump+6, R+6
District 10 is Glillespie+4, Trump+6, R+6

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7ea55af7-8cd5-42d5-808f-26016a75643c

Of course in practice this map is not really 7R-4D; more like 4R-4D-3S

With some even more extreme snakes you could make use of the southwesternmost part of the state and finally get a full 7-4 but it would be way too ugly.

Yeah, places like east Loudoun and Leesburg have gotten so blue and even the formerly Republican bastion in northern Fairfax of McLean/Great Falls has blued significantly, ceding a third NoVA seat is basically required (also because a lot of PWC is not covered by just two sinks)

[Torie]

VA is one place the geography of which is not that kind to the Pubs, with most of their vote surplus tucked away in the western part of the state. The Dems have 5 safe seats, and it is only a matter of time until the western burbs of Richmond + Charlottesville seat ceases to be much of a swing CD, which would make 6. The Pubs also look wan in the white part of the Norfolk metro area, so that may be on the road to the Dem's 7th seat. The Pubs could make things more erose to shore up the west of Richmond CD but excising Charlottesville, but that is about all that they would seem to have in the gerrymandering cupboard.

[lfromnj]

Splitting both Southside and the Shenandoah is a big nope.

Its much better to just accept the unfortunate placement of Roanake and split that area in most scenarios.

[Torie]

Splitting both Southside and the Shenandoah is a big nope.

Its much better to just accept the unfortunate placement of Roanake and split that area in most scenarios.

Is that illegal too? Or is it just a thought crime like chopping Bucks in PA? I don't give a damn about convention, particularly when it leads to non compact districts. I suspect the CD's would then look like two parallel fajita strips. I find those ugly. It might also take down the Pubs to just 3 safe CD's, if uniting the Shenandoah creates another Pub vote sink, by taking away from them the CD that starts with Loudoun (sp), by having to take in Charlottesville.  Why on earth would the Pubs agree to that? The west of Richmond CD will still be trending Dem even without Charlottesville. Richmond plus NOVA plus Norfolk are just one big Pub hate fest these days.

[Sol]

Splitting both Southside and the Shenandoah is a big nope.

Its much better to just accept the unfortunate placement of Roanake and split that area in most scenarios.

Is that illegal too? Or is it just a thought crime like chopping Bucks in PA? I don't give a damn about convention, particularly when it leads to non compact districts. I suspect the CD's would then look like two parallel fajita strips. I find those ugly. It might also take down the Pubs to just 3 safe CD's, if uniting the Shenandoah creates another Pub vote sink, by taking away from them the CD that starts with Loudoun (sp), by having to take in Charlottesville.  Why on earth would the Pubs agree to that? The west of Richmond CD will still be trending Dem even without Charlottesville. Richmond plus NOVA plus Norfolk are just one big Pub hate fest these days.

The Shenandoah being unified isn't a mindless tradition like Bucks--it's a pretty tightly defined community, both in terms of culture and topography, as you can see on this map:


(image by Karl Musser; link to license.)

If you want a reasonable comparison, doing a district connecting the Shenandoah to the Piedmont is a bit like linking Monterrey to Fresno.

[lfromnj]

Yeah the northern 2 counties and that city can arguably be placed with NOVA but for the rest of the valley one should always strive as hard as possible to keep it together.

[Torie]

Looks like I drew a CD that goes almost all the way to its headwaters. I guess we shall see if both parties consider those puny little hills akin to the Sierras, or even the coastal range in CA to which you refer. Hell maybe you are right. You have a map for this area out of curiosity?

[Sol]

I've been playing around with two fair maps, and I'd be interesting in getting your thoughts on both.

Map 1 (link):


Hampton Roads/Richmond


NOVA:


This map has a few advantages. It keeps several logical CoIs whole or mostly whole, like the Shenandoah Valley, the Fredericksburg Area, Hampton Roads cities, greater Roanoke, etc. The lines are pretty clean. However, it has a slight Republican bias (5/11 Clinton seats) though Democrats would have a decent shot in many Trump districts. It also puts Danville in with SW VA which is very unfortunate, and does split the Winchester area. It would also be nice to have a minority-majority district in NOVA.

Map 2: (link)



(Hampton Roads is the same as before no zoom there).



In this version, VA-9 makes a bit more sense. Unfortunately, it does this by splitting the Roanoke area. VA-6 also takes in more of non-Shenandoah rural areas, like Madison and Rappahannock, which aren't great fits. It has 6 Clinton seats instead of 5.

Playing around with another though lol

[lfromnj]

Looks like I drew a CD that goes almost all the way to its headwaters. I guess we shall see if both parties consider those puny little hills akin to the Sierras, or even the coastal range in CA to which you refer. Hell maybe you are right. You have a map for this area out of curiosity?

Yellow + Teal is what I consider the valley. Teal is also part of NOVA to a degree but yellow really should be kept together. Adding those 2 together means you would be around 180k short of pop which you can take from surrounding areas like Roanake or even arguably Charlottesville or just rurals/Lynchburg. Interstate 64 does connect Charlottesville to the Valley FWIW. The area is a bit long but its still pretty compact.

Interestingly Dumping Charlottesville with the valley makes it remarkably similar to the Western NC district with Asheville.

[Torie]

Thank you. I think you are consigned the Pubs to three vote sinks however, and there are two CD's chopping into NOVA. So again, there are choices to be made. There is no free lunch.

[lfromnj]

Ah I see you are looking at it from a bipartisan commision persepctive and trying to avoid too big of a GOP vote sink besides SW one.



Try this district then. I actually think in a vacuum this district is really nice but I can't find a way to fit it with the rest of the map so I don't really argue for drawing it.

[It’s so Joever]

IMO a fair map must separate parts of NoVa. Having been in the area once in my life, I can safely tell you all that there is far more in common between Arlington and Buchanan County, VA than Arlington and Alexandria.

Yes it means Dems partially benefit from the splitting, but it’s worth it to protect COIs.

[Sol]

IMO a fair map must separate parts of NoVa. Having been in the area once in my life, I can safely tell you all that there is far more in common between Arlington and Buchanan County, VA than Arlington and Alexandria.

Yes it means Dems partially benefit from the splitting, but it’s worth it to protect COIs.

This is an incredible tedious schtick.

[Stuart98]

Drew this about a month ago, tweaked it today:

1st - Loses the Richmond suburbs, gains more NoVa. This pushes it a point or two to the right currently, though by the end of the decade it's probably more left than its current iteration would have been.
2nd - Loses Hampton and Williamsburg, gains Chesapeake. This pushes it about a point to the right. I'm not sure if Luria lives in this or not?
3rd - Gets pushed north a bit compared to the current district, becomes about 1.5 points less black and less Democratic (but not enough to matter)
4th - Loses whiter parts of the Richmond metro to gain rural black areas, becoming a majority black district and also being slightly more democratic.
5th - Loses NoVa and some rural black areas in exchange for Roanoke and Lynchburg. Becomes slightly more democratic as a result (Tim Kaine won it by a point in 2018) but probably has less favorable trends than the old district?
6th - Loses Roanoke and Lynchburg while gaining the western outskirts of NoVa. Shifts a couple points to the left as a result. I doubt it would be competitive by the end of the decade nonetheless.
7th - Loses most of its rural areas, refocused around the Richmond metro. This shifts it to the right by less than a point. Spanberger would still have won it in 2018 and 2020, though it would have been closer.
8th - Contracts a bit and is reconfigured slightly to take in whiter areas. Shifts right by about 8 points, but obviously that won't matter.
9th - Expands a bit but is mostly unchanged.
10th - Becomes a D vote sink that is shifting rapidly left, having voted for Clinton by 20 points in 2016.
11th - Becomes a majority minority seat by total population (CVAP: 48% white, 14% hispanic, 24% black, 13% asian; total population: 38% white, 25% hispanic, 24% black, 15% asian). It loses whiter areas in Fairfax but gains more minority heavy areas in Fairfax and Prince William to achieve this.

[MaxQue]

3rd - Gets pushed north a bit compared to the current district, becomes about 1.5 points less black and less Democratic (but not enough to matter)

From what Internet records implies is her address, seems you did (between the military base and Lafayette River).

[lfromnj]

https://www.virginiamercury.com/2021/01/13/pro-trump-republican-picked-for-va-redistricting-commission-tweeted-about-rigged-election-used-slurs-for-female-celebrities/
Lmao Virginia,.

Also because they only pay 30 dollars a day all the commisoners already make 200k a year.

[lfromnj]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/virginia-redistricting-member-removal/2021/01/21/ce719d72-5c34-11eb-b8bd-ee36b1cd18bf_story.html

VA Democrats want to remove the above mentioned dude.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

[Former President tack50]

For fun, here is how a hypothetical non-VRA, fair map would look like

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d2f8ded0-1d16-49f9-b529-c112255faabe



VA-01 (Tidewater): Trump+15, Gillespie+12, Stewart+4, R+9
VA-02 (Virginia Beach): Trump+2, Northam+7, Kaine+12, R+2
VA-03 (Newport News): Clinton+27, Northam+32, Kaine+37, D+14 (44.9% black, 45% white)
VA-04 (Richmond): Clinton+28, Northam+30, Kaine+39, D+11 (51% white, 35% black)
VA-05 (Central Virginia): Trump+6, Gillespie+2, Kaine+5, R+5
VA-06 (Appalachia): Trump+34, Gillespie+32, Kaine+25, R+17
VA-07 (Southern Virginia): Trump+14, Gillespie+16, Stewart+9, R+7
VA-08 (Alexandria & Arlington): Clinton+53, Northam+53, Kaine+59, D+22
VA-09 (Southwest Virginia): Trump+34, Gillespie+29, Stewart+21, R+16
VA-10 (South Fairfax & East PWC): Clinton+29, Northam+29, Kaine+38, D+11
VA-11 (North Fairfax & East Loudoun): Clinton+30, Northam+34, Kaine+40, D+10

Interestingly, even when you don't consider the VRA, the 3rd district still remains a black district. The 4th however becomes a Richmond centred district which probably elects a white Democrat?

[Nyvin]

Put together a "plain" VA Senate map, which is kind of a pain due to Virginia having way too many giant precincts to balance out.









https://davesredistricting.org/join/969436ef-edf0-4bad-8ec0-fafa4f429ccc

I managed to get six AA districts.   The map probably works out to be 21D - 16R - 3s, the three swing districts being 6, 8, and 12.

I think 12 Nova dem districts is inevitable, also can't see a way the commission (or court) doesn't draw a Charlottesville seat.   There's also going to be some AA seats (at least 4?) in any map too.   That starts the Dems with a base of around 17 seats.

I love that Richmond almost perfectly forms an AA seat all by itself, that's beautiful. 

[VAR]

How easy is it to draw out Bob Good? He’s such a joke.

[Brittain33]

How easy is it to draw out Bob Good? He’s such a joke.

Not sure where he lives, but Virginia geography requires a conservative Southside district, so if he’s willing to move it is hard.