2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The quad-cut aside, you should drop Albemarle from the brown district and have it take in all the non-AA parts of the Richmond metro. Put Albemarle in Yellow, push the Lynchburg district north up the Shenandoah Valley, and backfill the Southside with red. That's basically how you clean this map up to make it look more reasonable.

It might look cleaner but it has the unfortunate effect of spreading out some of the rural areas.

Not really. Like your map, mine basically has four rural-dominated districts but mine match four unique areas of the state: the southwest, Southside, Shenandoah, and Tidewater+rural Central VA.

[SevenEleven]

Reston and Ashburn should be in the same district.

[lfromnj]

Here

Main communities left is Leesburg paired with the Shenandoah for population reasons,  However half of the Loudoun split is perfectly justified due to the much more rural nature of the western part of Loudoun and how expansion is limited there anyway by the hilly terrain
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catoctin_County,_Virginia

The black Richmond district is a bit low on the black population at 40.2 but if one wishes they can precint trade and split the city of Richmond for a more black district

Virginia beach should mostly take in Chesapeake due to the much more suburban nature of the latter compared to Norfolk .

Now theres an argument for 4 possible D NOVA districts depending on the split but just carving Fairfax like that into 4 is a blatant gerrymander.

[SevenEleven]

Here

Main communities left is Leesburg paired with the Shenandoah for population reasons,  However half of the Loudoun split is perfectly justified due to the much more rural nature of the western part of Loudoun and how expansion is limited there anyway by the hilly terrain
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catoctin_County,_Virginia

The black Richmond district is a bit low on the black population at 40.2 but if one wishes they can precint trade and split the city of Richmond for a more black district

Virginia beach should mostly take in Chesapeake due to the much more suburban nature of the latter compared to Norfolk .

Now theres an argument for 4 possible D NOVA districts depending on the split but just carving Fairfax like that into 4 is a blatant gerrymander.

Why in the world is Gainesville with Springfield? Yuck.

[lfromnj]

You literally did the same thing in your map lol(or looks like it)



And heres a rotation if you want it, was a bit lazy with city boundaries due the huge population size for each precinct but should be easy to fix and still have a similar shape.

[SevenEleven]

You literally did the same thing in your map lol(or looks like it)



And heres a rotation if you want it, was a bit lazy with city boundaries due the huge population size for each precinct but should be easy to fix and still have a similar shape.

No, I definitely did not. And you ought to have Reston and Ashburn in the same district.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

One thing: keeping East PWC with West PWC is a really bad map. East PWC belongs with Springfield and Lorton whereas West PWC should be with Chantilly or South Riding.

[lfromnj]

Heres another way

Splitting Fairfax to 4 districts when it and its cities form just 2 districts +35k population is a blatant gerrymander.

The blue district keeps a nice exurban feeling with moderately educated exurbs with high amounts of wealth and a few rurals and then connects it cleanly with Charlottesville.
Very clean Shenandoah district with only downside there is Roanake split,
SW district does touch the Piedmont region a bit unfortunately.


Overall 5 Safe D
1 pure tossup(Charlottesville) Trump +0.2
1 lean R( VA beach) Trump +2.6
one Lean/Likely R which is Tidewater/Richmond at Trump +7.
3 Safe R.


And yes exurbs are a valid COI with regards to the culture and other similar ideas they have even if they aren't as close as one wishes.

[SevenEleven]

LOL, 6 Trump districts in a Dem state and you're calling our maps gerrymanders.

"Exurbs" are not a COI, they are part of a metro and should be treated as such. Your map is ridiculous. I suggest you learn what a COI is.

[lfromnj]

LOL, 6 Trump districts in a Dem state and you're calling our maps gerrymanders.

ok I can shift 2 precints and make the blue one a Clinton district if you so desire,
If you use expected outcome you have an expected outcome of around 6.2 D seats on average)
(this assumes no incumbents etc)
5 D*100
+0.5 D(VA 1)
+0.4 D(VA2)
+0.3 (VA7)
= 6.2 D seats and 4.8 R seats while the perfectly expected value using the cube rule for districts is 6.4 D seats and 4.6 D seats.

And 2020 census in Loudoun probably shrinks the blue district just a bit further into NOVA to probably make it Clinton anyway, I didn't even look at partisanship while making the districts.

[SevenEleven]

Loudoun to Charlottesville is a giant NO.

You should never have districts circling other districts unless there is a VRA requirement that mandates it.

[lfromnj]

Ok then Loudoun to Winchester, oh wait its now Safe R and the Charlottesville seat is Likely R(Kaine won it by 0.5)

Now you can complain its a gerrymander. First of all its not even really Loudoun, its Catotcin county which is rural/exurban and by no degree at all suburban.

[SevenEleven]

Ok then Loudoun to Winchester, oh wait its now Safe R and the Charlottesville seat is Likely R(Kaine won it by 0.5)

Now you can complain its a gerrymander.

Stafford County and Loudoun County should not share a district. You're entire map drawing process is partisan.

Also no one cares about your made up county.

[lfromnj]

Ok here we go again,
made a small rotation, gave the rest of Loudoun to Loudoun and moved blue to take Manassas which now moves it to tilt D.

Realistically Western Loudoun has more in common with Charlottesville than Manassas which is a Hispanic majority town almost but again this is both a partisanlly fair map(I don't even look at partisanship till the map is finished anyway when I make a fair map)

[SevenEleven]

That's starting to look better. 🙂

When are you going to draw a California map?

[SevenEleven]

Exurban/suburban doesn't matter. Districts shouldn't loop around for no reason. Manassas should go with Fairfax.

[SevenEleven]

Looping around is never worth it. The only time it's acceptable is when mandated by the VRA. You first tried it with Springfield-Gainsville, then you tried again with Loudon-Stafford. Don't do it. It's wrong and it makes for poorly representative districts.

Edit: previous posts deleted.

[lfromnj]

Again Western vs Eastern Loudoun have a lot of local issues at play and basically hate each other because Western Loudoun wants to protect its  atmosphere and other factors. Call it NIMBYISM or whatever you want but Eastern Loudoun has interest in a congressman who will increase development in their area while Western Loudoun might prefer one who might be able to limit road access.



And here we go, we take some middle areas in PWC and we get the narrowest Clinton district in the nation at +300 votes

Do you really think I am gerrymandering over a 0.2 points swing?(Trump +0.2 or Clinton +0)
No I legitimately believe Western Loudoun is much more belonging in the district. It doesn't matter if it loops , you just believe thats ugly for some reason but you still haven't proven why its some precincts from suburban PWC should be there.

[SevenEleven]

Western Loudoun having different political views does not make it a distinct community of interest. Weird that you're so upset about a reasonable split of Fairfax but are so aggressive about splitting Loudoun meaninglessly.

Tyson's should be in VA-8.

Protip: look at the roads.

[lfromnj]

Western Loudoun having different political views does not make it a distinct community of interest. Weird that you're so upset about a reasonable split of Fairfax but are so aggressive about splitting Loudoun meaninglessly.

The split of Fairfax was obviously a partisan gerrymander and had major differences, Im literally arguing over a swing of 0.2 points here.
Infact the precincts I took from PWC county are just a tiny bit more D than the Western Loudoun precincts, there is no national political difference really. This is literally 0.2 points. Loudoun county is basically like Passiac NJ except replace the urban poor Patterson with rich suburban towns and then rural/exurban Western half. Its not political besides the local issues which is a very valid reason for it to be separate due to different interests for federal funding. On the other hand Western and central PWC both are developing quite rapidly and have the terrain to do so. Therefore they belong in a true suburban NOVA district rather than a rural/exurban mix.

The decision to put Western Loudoun with the blue district is purely non partisan.

Now about Tyson and all those cities in Fairfax, they can all be easily rotated between VA 8/10/11

[SevenEleven]

Western Loudoun having different political views does not make it a distinct community of interest. Weird that you're so upset about a reasonable split of Fairfax but are so aggressive about splitting Loudoun meaninglessly.

The split of Fairfax was obviously a partisan gerrymander and had major differences, Im literally arguing over a swing of 0.2 points here.
Infact the precincts I took from PWC county are just a tiny bit more D than the Western Loudoun precincts, there is no national political difference really. This is literally 0.2 points. Loudoun county is basically like Passiac NJ except replace the urban poor Patterson with rich suburban towns and then rural/exurban Western half. Its not political besides the local issues which is a very valid reason for it to be separate due to different interests for federal funding. On the other hand Western and central PWC both are developing quite rapidly and have the terrain to do so. Therefore they belong in a true suburban NOVA district rather than a rural/exurban mix.

The decision to put Western Loudoun with the blue district is purely non partisan.

That's not how metropolitan areas work. The suburbs and exurbs are tied to the urban core more than they are tied to each other.

[lfromnj]

When you look at common interests and the types of people , people in exurbs are easily more connected to each other than some common road uniting them, especially considering how the exurbs themselves aren't exactly disconnected either.

Literally no one else on this forum cares about direction of road this much besides you and Blairite, I even remember the idea that somehow rurals should be mixed with Cincinatti suburbs instead of just combing one mega suburban district around Cinci. Like sure I can agree Reston and Ashburn are connected but Western Loudoun is not really connected to the rest of Loudoun culturally and demographically and terrian wise.

[SevenEleven]

When you look at common interests and the types of people , people in exurbs are easily more connected to each other than some common road uniting them, especially considering how the exurbs themselves aren't exactly disconnected either.

Literally no one else on this forum cares about direction of road this much besides you and Blairite, I even remember the idea that somehow rurals should be mixed with Cincinatti suburbs instead of just combing one mega suburban district around Cinci. Like sure I can agree Reston and Ashburn are connected but Western Loudoun is not really connected to the rest of Loudoun culturally and demographically and terrian wise.

Putting Purcellville and Falmouth in the same district is ridiculous. The roads and highways are what connect communities together. I'm certain the reason Blairites and I have such strong opinions about this is because we have actually lived in the area. Drawing looping suburban and exurban districts is logic-defying. The entire NoVA metro starts at Arlington and spreads outward.

[Idaho Conservative]

LOL, 6 Trump districts in a Dem state and you're calling our maps gerrymanders.

"Exurbs" are not a COI, they are part of a metro and should be treated as such. Your map is ridiculous. I suggest you learn what a COI is.

Exurbs are absolutely a COI. I suggest you learn what a COI is.  You only deem communities COIs if it benefits the Democratic party.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I see both sides here. As SevenEleven said, I have lived in the area (albeit on the other side of the Potomac) and NoVa is absolutely defined by three corridors: the Silver Line/Dulles Toll Road cities from Rosslyn to Tysons to Leesburg, the Orange Line/I-66 cities from Rosslyn to Vienna to Manassas, and the Blue Line/I-95 cities from Alexandria to Woodbridge to Fredericksburg. These are the routes that people travel along, live along, and meet other people along. A person in Reston is way more likely to travel inward to Ballston than down to Burke. At the same time, each corridor is *roughly* defined by similar demographics/densities/ways of life as you travel further and further from Arlington in that the average person in Chantilly is way more like someone in Ashburn than they are like someone in Crystal City. If you use this to define COIs then you want an inside the beltway/inner suburban/outer suburban divisions for perfectly good reasons.

However, this characterization ignores two key facts about NoVa: the exurbs aren't all that distinct from the suburbs and the I-95 corridor is very much its own thing. Compare Brambleton, way out in Loudon County with Mantua, just outside the beltway. Mantua is better established and has far nicer commutes, but they aren't all that distinct from each other. The case for spinning off Loudon from Fairfax is weak. At the same time, the I-95 corridor is different--it has lower incomes, a higher AA population, and a stronger military presence. You can see that Mantua is much more different from suburban Dale City than it is from exurban Brambleton. Interestingly, the corridor model also shows that the I-95 corridor is distinct from the other two. The split between Leesburg/Tysons and Vienna/Manassas happens out in Falls Church, not at the Potomac, and there are consistent built up areas and arterials between Dulles Toll Road and I-66. However, there is much more empty space between I-66 and I-95, hence my earlier recommendation to always divide PWC.

With this in mind, I would suggest a hybrid model for Northern Virginia. First establish the obvious inside the beltway district. Then construct a I-66/Dulles Corridor district within Fairfax including Tysons, Chantilly, Reston, Vienna, and so on. Spin off the more distinct I-95 corridor with everything from Woodbridge to Fredericksburg. With the leftovers on the western fringes of the metro, mostly in Loudon and West PWC, construct a fourth district which connects to whichever parts of RoVa you deem most appropriate.