2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Idaho Conservative]

Here's my take on a fair map (7D-3R, 2 Black VRA, etc.)



I really hate connecting Charlottesville and Richmond, but if you undo that, then you end up with a two-lobe district connected via a neck in Spotsylvania County (I'm not willing to change my Shenendoah, Southwest, and Richmond/Southside VRA seats). Are there any better ways to fix this problem?

I'm also conflicted about whether to pull a district out of Fairfax and create a more compact outer suburban seat, but I think NoVa is ultimately more characterized by three corridors outside the beltway along Dulles Toll Road, I-68, and I-95 than by inner and outer ring suburbs.

Fair? HAHAHAHAHAHA

What are your specific criticisms? The Southside, Newport News-Norfolk, and Virginia Beach-Delmarva seats are basically locked in place by VRA and geography. The SWVA and Shenandoah seats are compact and follow clear COIs. Finally, four blue NoVa seats are unavoidable in any reasonable configuration. I've already discussed my issues with drawing Richmond, Charlottesville, and the Tidewater but even if you make a Tidewater-Charlottesville dumbbell seat and a more compact Richmond seat then the underlying partisanship won't change.

Dicing up Fairfax 4 ways is absurd.  Why not a compact seat in the county?  Also splitting up Richmond unnecessarily.  A compact seat could be made there.

I discussed this earlier. I think NoVa is more accurately divided into an inside the beltway region and three corridors (basically Reston-Loudoun, Vienna-Manassas, and Springfield-Fredricksburg.) Even if  I change NoVa around to consist of a Loudon-West PWC-Fauquier based seat, a Fairfax seat, a PWC-Fredricksburg seat, and an Arlington-Alexandria seat then the partisanship will be the exact same.

As for Richmond, you have to split it for VRA. It would be illegal not to do so. I can pull VA-08 in so VA-07 isn't in the metro area at all, but again, that won't change the partisanship of the map.

This is still a 7-3 map:

Laughable, parts of Fairfax have more in common with other parts of Fairfax than Appalachia.  Just admit this is parrisan, you look so bad trying todeny the obvious.  Also a compact 40% black seat can be created in Richmond metro.  Due to racially polarized voting and a largely black dem primary electorate (but not so racially polarized a republican would win), a black candidate would likely win. 

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's my take on a fair map (7D-3R, 2 Black VRA, etc.)



I really hate connecting Charlottesville and Richmond, but if you undo that, then you end up with a two-lobe district connected via a neck in Spotsylvania County (I'm not willing to change my Shenendoah, Southwest, and Richmond/Southside VRA seats). Are there any better ways to fix this problem?

I'm also conflicted about whether to pull a district out of Fairfax and create a more compact outer suburban seat, but I think NoVa is ultimately more characterized by three corridors outside the beltway along Dulles Toll Road, I-68, and I-95 than by inner and outer ring suburbs.

Fair? HAHAHAHAHAHA

What are your specific criticisms? The Southside, Newport News-Norfolk, and Virginia Beach-Delmarva seats are basically locked in place by VRA and geography. The SWVA and Shenandoah seats are compact and follow clear COIs. Finally, four blue NoVa seats are unavoidable in any reasonable configuration. I've already discussed my issues with drawing Richmond, Charlottesville, and the Tidewater but even if you make a Tidewater-Charlottesville dumbbell seat and a more compact Richmond seat then the underlying partisanship won't change.

Dicing up Fairfax 4 ways is absurd.  Why not a compact seat in the county?  Also splitting up Richmond unnecessarily.  A compact seat could be made there.

I discussed this earlier. I think NoVa is more accurately divided into an inside the beltway region and three corridors (basically Reston-Loudoun, Vienna-Manassas, and Springfield-Fredricksburg.) Even if  I change NoVa around to consist of a Loudon-West PWC-Fauquier based seat, a Fairfax seat, a PWC-Fredricksburg seat, and an Arlington-Alexandria seat then the partisanship will be the exact same.

As for Richmond, you have to split it for VRA. It would be illegal not to do so. I can pull VA-08 in so VA-07 isn't in the metro area at all, but again, that won't change the partisanship of the map.

This is still a 7-3 map:

Laughable, parts of Fairfax have more in common with other parts of Fairfax than Appalachia.  Just admit this is parrisan, you look so bad trying todeny the obvious.  Also a compact 40% black seat can be created in Richmond metro.  Due to racially polarized voting and a largely black dem primary electorate (but not so racially polarized a republican would win), a black candidate would likely win. 

Uh, nobody cares about where Winchester is and moving it around for population adjustment won't significantly affect partisanship. And yeah, Reston is definitely more connected with Ashburn than it is with Springfield, Fair Oaks is more connected with Manassas than it is with Great Falls, and Lorton is more connected with Woodbridge than it is with Chantilly. This is genuinely nonpartisan. A fair map of Virginia has six to eight safe Dem seats (just as a fair map of Tennessee has one or two, despite neither breakdown accurately reflecting the partisanship of the state.)

As for Richmond, 40% black is not good enough. 45% should be a minimum.

Anyhow, this map should address all of your concerns although you should know that in 2018 it would have been 9-2 Dem:

[Idaho Conservative]

Here's my take on a fair map (7D-3R, 2 Black VRA, etc.)



I really hate connecting Charlottesville and Richmond, but if you undo that, then you end up with a two-lobe district connected via a neck in Spotsylvania County (I'm not willing to change my Shenendoah, Southwest, and Richmond/Southside VRA seats). Are there any better ways to fix this problem?

I'm also conflicted about whether to pull a district out of Fairfax and create a more compact outer suburban seat, but I think NoVa is ultimately more characterized by three corridors outside the beltway along Dulles Toll Road, I-68, and I-95 than by inner and outer ring suburbs.

Fair? HAHAHAHAHAHA

What are your specific criticisms? The Southside, Newport News-Norfolk, and Virginia Beach-Delmarva seats are basically locked in place by VRA and geography. The SWVA and Shenandoah seats are compact and follow clear COIs. Finally, four blue NoVa seats are unavoidable in any reasonable configuration. I've already discussed my issues with drawing Richmond, Charlottesville, and the Tidewater but even if you make a Tidewater-Charlottesville dumbbell seat and a more compact Richmond seat then the underlying partisanship won't change.

Dicing up Fairfax 4 ways is absurd.  Why not a compact seat in the county?  Also splitting up Richmond unnecessarily.  A compact seat could be made there.

I discussed this earlier. I think NoVa is more accurately divided into an inside the beltway region and three corridors (basically Reston-Loudoun, Vienna-Manassas, and Springfield-Fredricksburg.) Even if  I change NoVa around to consist of a Loudon-West PWC-Fauquier based seat, a Fairfax seat, a PWC-Fredricksburg seat, and an Arlington-Alexandria seat then the partisanship will be the exact same.

As for Richmond, you have to split it for VRA. It would be illegal not to do so. I can pull VA-08 in so VA-07 isn't in the metro area at all, but again, that won't change the partisanship of the map.

This is still a 7-3 map:

Laughable, parts of Fairfax have more in common with other parts of Fairfax than Appalachia.  Just admit this is parrisan, you look so bad trying todeny the obvious.  Also a compact 40% black seat can be created in Richmond metro.  Due to racially polarized voting and a largely black dem primary electorate (but not so racially polarized a republican would win), a black candidate would likely win. 

Uh, nobody cares about where Winchester is and moving it around for population adjustment won't significantly affect partisanship. And yeah, Reston is definitely more connected with Ashburn than it is with Springfield, Fair Oaks is more connected with Manassas than it is with Great Falls, and Lorton is more connected with Woodbridge than it is with Chantilly. This is genuinely nonpartisan. A fair map of Virginia has six to eight safe Dem seats (just as a fair map of Tennessee has one or two, despite neither breakdown accurately reflecting the partisanship of the state.)

As for Richmond, 40% black is not good enough. 45% should be a minimum.

Anyhow, this map should address all of your concerns although you should know that in 2018 it would have been 9-2 Dem:

How isn't 40% enough?  Also, mask off there.  You admitted rural interests don't matter in your map and it's all about partisanship. 

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's my take on a fair map (7D-3R, 2 Black VRA, etc.)



I really hate connecting Charlottesville and Richmond, but if you undo that, then you end up with a two-lobe district connected via a neck in Spotsylvania County (I'm not willing to change my Shenendoah, Southwest, and Richmond/Southside VRA seats). Are there any better ways to fix this problem?

I'm also conflicted about whether to pull a district out of Fairfax and create a more compact outer suburban seat, but I think NoVa is ultimately more characterized by three corridors outside the beltway along Dulles Toll Road, I-68, and I-95 than by inner and outer ring suburbs.

Fair? HAHAHAHAHAHA

What are your specific criticisms? The Southside, Newport News-Norfolk, and Virginia Beach-Delmarva seats are basically locked in place by VRA and geography. The SWVA and Shenandoah seats are compact and follow clear COIs. Finally, four blue NoVa seats are unavoidable in any reasonable configuration. I've already discussed my issues with drawing Richmond, Charlottesville, and the Tidewater but even if you make a Tidewater-Charlottesville dumbbell seat and a more compact Richmond seat then the underlying partisanship won't change.

Dicing up Fairfax 4 ways is absurd.  Why not a compact seat in the county?  Also splitting up Richmond unnecessarily.  A compact seat could be made there.

I discussed this earlier. I think NoVa is more accurately divided into an inside the beltway region and three corridors (basically Reston-Loudoun, Vienna-Manassas, and Springfield-Fredricksburg.) Even if  I change NoVa around to consist of a Loudon-West PWC-Fauquier based seat, a Fairfax seat, a PWC-Fredricksburg seat, and an Arlington-Alexandria seat then the partisanship will be the exact same.

As for Richmond, you have to split it for VRA. It would be illegal not to do so. I can pull VA-08 in so VA-07 isn't in the metro area at all, but again, that won't change the partisanship of the map.

This is still a 7-3 map:

Laughable, parts of Fairfax have more in common with other parts of Fairfax than Appalachia.  Just admit this is parrisan, you look so bad trying todeny the obvious.  Also a compact 40% black seat can be created in Richmond metro.  Due to racially polarized voting and a largely black dem primary electorate (but not so racially polarized a republican would win), a black candidate would likely win.  

Uh, nobody cares about where Winchester is and moving it around for population adjustment won't significantly affect partisanship. And yeah, Reston is definitely more connected with Ashburn than it is with Springfield, Fair Oaks is more connected with Manassas than it is with Great Falls, and Lorton is more connected with Woodbridge than it is with Chantilly. This is genuinely nonpartisan. A fair map of Virginia has six to eight safe Dem seats (just as a fair map of Tennessee has one or two, despite neither breakdown accurately reflecting the partisanship of the state.)

As for Richmond, 40% black is not good enough. 45% should be a minimum.

Anyhow, this map should address all of your concerns although you should know that in 2018 it would have been 9-2 Dem:

How isn't 40% enough?  Also, mask off there.  You admitted rural interests don't matter in your map and it's all about partisanship.  

Because the current VA-03 and VA-04 districts are 45% and 41% black, respectively, but crucially keep the white population below 52%. Also, VRA mandates that if minority communities can easily be kept together, then they must be put together and it's pretty damn easy to put Richmond and the Southside together to hit 45% AA so that is what you should do.

When you claim I said rural interests don't matter, I assume you're referring to my comment about Winchester. That's more because it doesn't fit that strongly into any current region. Certainly, it could be argued it belongs more with Shenandoah than with NoVA, but it's waaaay closer to Leesburg than Lynchburg which is why I said nobody cares. In fairness, I should have more accurately said nobody can make an overwhelming case for putting Winchester in a certain region so you should use it as balance for population adjustment. If I were to put it in the Shenendoah district, then I'd have to do a tri-chop of Roanoke or ditch Lynchburg which would obviously be way worse.

Not sure how this exposes some hidden partisan bias as I've been explaining in literally every post why I think my placement makes sense from a COI perspective, although I suppose it's just you projecting your unnuanced party over country mentality on everyone else.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I would probably make VA-03 take in more of Norfolk, and I've actually drawn it in such a way where you don't need to extend it west, and I'd move some of those more western parts of the 3rd into the 4th, the 4th simply went too far west, which led to the 5th being placed oddly. I actually don't have a problem with the Charlottesville to Richmond snake, but I'd shift the 1st north into your present 5th, and recreate the 5th in southern Virginia, as the 4th was pushed back to the east. Also maybe keeping the 11th compact in Fairfax/PWC avoids having to place Manassas and Fairfax into your 5th.

I really don't want to connect Virginia beach with the cities on the peninsula. (I didn't even want to do this with the Norfolk-Newport Beach district, but it is VRA mandated. Also, you can see in my new map that I cleaned up the Fairfax/PWC lines, although I'm still not convinced that makes a better map.

[Idaho Conservative]

I would probably make VA-03 take in more of Norfolk, and I've actually drawn it in such a way where you don't need to extend it west, and I'd move some of those more western parts of the 3rd into the 4th, the 4th simply went too far west, which led to the 5th being placed oddly. I actually don't have a problem with the Charlottesville to Richmond snake, but I'd shift the 1st north into your present 5th, and recreate the 5th in southern Virginia, as the 4th was pushed back to the east. Also maybe keeping the 11th compact in Fairfax/PWC avoids having to place Manassas and Fairfax into your 5th.

I really don't want to connect Virginia beach with the cities on the peninsula. (I didn't even want to do this with the Norfolk-Newport Beach district, but it is VRA mandated. Also, you can see in my new map that I cleaned up the Fairfax/PWC lines, although I'm still not convinced that makes a better map.

5-1-5 fair map.  Richmond seat is 42% black, 46% white.  The swing seat in VA beach is Trump+2, bluer than the current seat there.  I'd expect this to end up being 6D-5R, due to how SEVA trended in the gov race and senate race, but the tossup could definitely go red in an election which leans republican even by a point nationally.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I would probably make VA-03 take in more of Norfolk, and I've actually drawn it in such a way where you don't need to extend it west, and I'd move some of those more western parts of the 3rd into the 4th, the 4th simply went too far west, which led to the 5th being placed oddly. I actually don't have a problem with the Charlottesville to Richmond snake, but I'd shift the 1st north into your present 5th, and recreate the 5th in southern Virginia, as the 4th was pushed back to the east. Also maybe keeping the 11th compact in Fairfax/PWC avoids having to place Manassas and Fairfax into your 5th.

I really don't want to connect Virginia beach with the cities on the peninsula. (I didn't even want to do this with the Norfolk-Newport Beach district, but it is VRA mandated. Also, you can see in my new map that I cleaned up the Fairfax/PWC lines, although I'm still not convinced that makes a better map.

5-1-5 fair map.  Richmond seat is 42% black, 46% white.  The swing seat in VA beach is Trump+2, bluer than the current seat there.  I'd expect this to end up being 6D-5R, due to how SEVA trended in the gov race and senate race, but the tossup could definitely go red in an election which leans republican even by a point nationally.

Woooow. And I'm the partisan mapmaker? Four rings in NoVa is INSANE. You're connecting Woodbridge to Ashburn and Fredericksburg to Leesburg. If the most efficient route between any two points in a NoVa district involves passing through another district, then you've done something wrong. That's why the area needs wedges radiating out from the beltway, not skinny concentric rings.

Fixing that alone should make four safe D districts. You made an extremely awkward Southwest VA, Shenandoah, and Southside configuration but that's just a mistake instead of gerrymandering so I'll ignore that.

Placing the Delmarva Peninsula with the Tidewater makes no sense given where the bridge is, your VA Beach/Norfolk district line is an obvious gerrymander given it requires crossing twice from the Southside to the Peninsula to go between the two lobes of your yellow district. VA Beach needs to take in the Delmarva Peninsula and some of Norfolk under any fair map which should push it further left. Also, your Richmond district looks unnecessarily weird.

Anyway, you should clean up green and make that a safe Dem seat and move teal a couple points left if you want that seriously considered as a fair map.

[Idaho Conservative]

I would probably make VA-03 take in more of Norfolk, and I've actually drawn it in such a way where you don't need to extend it west, and I'd move some of those more western parts of the 3rd into the 4th, the 4th simply went too far west, which led to the 5th being placed oddly. I actually don't have a problem with the Charlottesville to Richmond snake, but I'd shift the 1st north into your present 5th, and recreate the 5th in southern Virginia, as the 4th was pushed back to the east. Also maybe keeping the 11th compact in Fairfax/PWC avoids having to place Manassas and Fairfax into your 5th.

I really don't want to connect Virginia beach with the cities on the peninsula. (I didn't even want to do this with the Norfolk-Newport Beach district, but it is VRA mandated. Also, you can see in my new map that I cleaned up the Fairfax/PWC lines, although I'm still not convinced that makes a better map.

5-1-5 fair map.  Richmond seat is 42% black, 46% white.  The swing seat in VA beach is Trump+2, bluer than the current seat there.  I'd expect this to end up being 6D-5R, due to how SEVA trended in the gov race and senate race, but the tossup could definitely go red in an election which leans republican even by a point nationally.

Woooow. And I'm the partisan mapmaker? Four rings in NoVa is INSANE. You're connecting Woodbridge to Ashburn and Fredericksburg to Leesburg. If the most efficient route between any two points in a NoVa district involves passing through another district, then you've done something wrong. That's why the area needs wedges radiating out from the beltway, not skinny concentric rings.

Fixing that alone should make four safe D districts. You made an extremely awkward Southwest VA, Shenandoah, and Southside configuration but that's just a mistake instead of gerrymandering so I'll ignore that.

Placing the Delmarva Peninsula with the Tidewater makes no sense given where the bridge is, your VA Beach/Norfolk district line is an obvious gerrymander given it requires crossing twice from the Southside to the Peninsula to go between the two lobes of your yellow district. VA Beach needs to take in the Delmarva Peninsula and some of Norfolk under any fair map which should push it further left. Also, your Richmond district looks unnecessarily weird.

Anyway, you should clean up green and make that a safe Dem seat and move teal a couple points left if you want that seriously considered as a fair map.

Cleaned up NoVa, doesn't really change anything except aesthetics however.  And SEVA is drawn fair, could be much more gop friendly.  The Norfolk district could be made more compact, but then the VA Beach seat becomes redder

[Former President tack50]

Given Virginia is a Lean D state at this point, a fair map should probably be 6D-5R or something functionally equivalent (like say, 5D-4R-2S). Here is an example; a 5D-4R-2S map



VA-01: Trump+10; Gillespie+7; Kaine+1; R+6
VA-02: Trump+2; Northam+6; Kaine+10; R+2
VA-03: Clinton+29; Northam+34; Kaine+39; D+15 (46% black, 44% white)
VA-04: Clinton+19, Northam+19, Kaine+25, D+9 (47% black, 46% white)
VA-05: Trump+27, Gillespie+25, Stewart+18, R+14
VA-06: Trump+9, Gillespie+3, Kaine+2, R+6
VA-07: Trump+2, Northam+1, Kaine+10, R+5
VA-08: Clinton+52, Northam+53, Kaine+59, D+22
VA-09: Trump+42, Gillespie+37, Stewart+30, R+20
VA-10: Clinton+30, Northam+33, Kaine+40, D+10
VA-11: Clinton+23, Northam+25, Kaine+33, D+9

So basically 5 Safe D districts (3 NOVA and the 2 VRA ones), 2 swing districts (the 2nd and 7th) and 4 Safe R districts, though I suppose if VA keeps trending D maybe the 6th will open up? (or possibly the 1st though that one is probably safe for the entire decade).

Granted it is also very easy to make an R gerrymander even with this map (in fact my first attempt was a soft R gerrymander with VA 2nd and 7th around Trump+5, so I had to swap a few precincts around to make them true swing districts); but a fair map should also account for the overall partisanship of the state (though keeping COIs takes priority)

[Sol]

I don't think Lynchburg really belongs in a Shenandoah Valley district if you're trying to use fair districting principles.




(mods, let me know if there are licensing issues with the above images; they're an image made by Karl Musser on Wikipedia and from a website which purports to take it from a state gov. source).

[lfromnj]

I highly doubt a court is going to shutdown a compact 39 or 40% black district based in Richmond and Petersburg,the current district is 41% black lol

[voice_of_resistance]

While we're at it, why then can't we bring back the pre-1992 VA-03 that was based predominantly in Richmond?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/46789234-44a0-4160-b0fc-3152e98193ae

This is a 6D-5R map that attempts to respect COIs and all, without caring about incumbency.

Scott is likely screwed, as Newport News is now in Trump +3 VA-01.
Luria can survive in VA-02.
McEachin survives in a restored Richmond-based VA-03, given how white libs vote, but also Spanberger is now screwed.
Scott could carpetbag or some other Dem could survive in VA-04.
VA-05 would be a competitive but R-leaning seat. Kaine lost it 50-49.
Cline is safe in VA-06.
VA-07 is now a NoVA red seat, where maybe someone like Nick Freitas can run.
VA-08, VA-10, and VA-11 don't really change that much. NoVA breakdown is 3D-1R which is fair.
VA-09 is safe R.

[Oryxslayer]

While we're at it, why then can't we bring back the pre-1992 VA-03 that was based predominantly in Richmond?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/46789234-44a0-4160-b0fc-3152e98193ae

This is a 6D-5R map that attempts to respect COIs and all, without caring about incumbency.

Scott is likely screwed, as Newport News is now in Trump +3 VA-01.
Luria can survive in VA-02.
McEachin survives in a restored Richmond-based VA-03, given how white libs vote, but also Spanberger is now screwed.
Scott could carpetbag or some other Dem could survive in VA-04.
VA-05 would be a competitive but R-leaning seat. Kaine lost it 50-49.
Cline is safe in VA-06.
VA-07 is now a NoVA red seat, where maybe someone like Nick Freitas can run.
VA-08, VA-10, and VA-11 don't really change that much. NoVA breakdown is 3D-1R which is fair.
VA-09 is safe R.

Because VRA is a thing. VA03 and VA04 both need to have high AA population, ideally about over 42%ish.

[voice_of_resistance]

While we're at it, why then can't we bring back the pre-1992 VA-03 that was based predominantly in Richmond?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/46789234-44a0-4160-b0fc-3152e98193ae

This is a 6D-5R map that attempts to respect COIs and all, without caring about incumbency.

Scott is likely screwed, as Newport News is now in Trump +3 VA-01.
Luria can survive in VA-02.
McEachin survives in a restored Richmond-based VA-03, given how white libs vote, but also Spanberger is now screwed.
Scott could carpetbag or some other Dem could survive in VA-04.
VA-05 would be a competitive but R-leaning seat. Kaine lost it 50-49.
Cline is safe in VA-06.
VA-07 is now a NoVA red seat, where maybe someone like Nick Freitas can run.
VA-08, VA-10, and VA-11 don't really change that much. NoVA breakdown is 3D-1R which is fair.
VA-09 is safe R.

Because VRA is a thing. VA03 and VA04 both need to have high AA population, ideally about over 42%ish.

Aren't Scott and McEachin popular enough that they could easily get re-elected without it? The 4th may be a bit dicey in a red-wave year, but especially McEachin in the 3rd, I don't see how these VRA seats are as absolutely necessary as say AL-07 or SC-06.

[Oryxslayer]

While we're at it, why then can't we bring back the pre-1992 VA-03 that was based predominantly in Richmond?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/46789234-44a0-4160-b0fc-3152e98193ae

This is a 6D-5R map that attempts to respect COIs and all, without caring about incumbency.

Scott is likely screwed, as Newport News is now in Trump +3 VA-01.
Luria can survive in VA-02.
McEachin survives in a restored Richmond-based VA-03, given how white libs vote, but also Spanberger is now screwed.
Scott could carpetbag or some other Dem could survive in VA-04.
VA-05 would be a competitive but R-leaning seat. Kaine lost it 50-49.
Cline is safe in VA-06.
VA-07 is now a NoVA red seat, where maybe someone like Nick Freitas can run.
VA-08, VA-10, and VA-11 don't really change that much. NoVA breakdown is 3D-1R which is fair.
VA-09 is safe R.

Because VRA is a thing. VA03 and VA04 both need to have high AA population, ideally about over 42%ish.

Aren't Scott and McEachin popular enough that they could easily get re-elected without it? The 4th may be a bit dicey in a red-wave year, but especially McEachin in the 3rd, I don't see how these VRA seats are as absolutely necessary as say AL-07 or SC-06.

Doesn't matter if someone is popular or not. Minority access is a crucial part of the law, and it must be guaranteed. Any map of any state is a non-starter without maintaining minority seats that are presently protected - unless the states minority population and patterns of settlement have significantly changed of course.

[voice_of_resistance]

While we're at it, why then can't we bring back the pre-1992 VA-03 that was based predominantly in Richmond?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/46789234-44a0-4160-b0fc-3152e98193ae

This is a 6D-5R map that attempts to respect COIs and all, without caring about incumbency.

Scott is likely screwed, as Newport News is now in Trump +3 VA-01.
Luria can survive in VA-02.
McEachin survives in a restored Richmond-based VA-03, given how white libs vote, but also Spanberger is now screwed.
Scott could carpetbag or some other Dem could survive in VA-04.
VA-05 would be a competitive but R-leaning seat. Kaine lost it 50-49.
Cline is safe in VA-06.
VA-07 is now a NoVA red seat, where maybe someone like Nick Freitas can run.
VA-08, VA-10, and VA-11 don't really change that much. NoVA breakdown is 3D-1R which is fair.
VA-09 is safe R.

Because VRA is a thing. VA03 and VA04 both need to have high AA population, ideally about over 42%ish.

Aren't Scott and McEachin popular enough that they could easily get re-elected without it? The 4th may be a bit dicey in a red-wave year, but especially McEachin in the 3rd, I don't see how these VRA seats are as absolutely necessary as say AL-07 or SC-06.

Doesn't matter if someone is popular or not. Minority access is a crucial part of the law, and it must be guaranteed. Any map of any state is a non-starter without maintaining minority seats that are presently protected - unless the states minority population and patterns of settlement have significantly changed of course.

Ok solid. Just wanted to clear it up.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, for those wondering I would pair the Charlottesville region, which is very different from most of its neighbors, and Richmond, even under a fair map. Why? Well, here's your dominant COI which influences the cultural perceptions of the resident population.

[lfromnj]

Also, for those wondering I would pair the Charlottesville region, which is very different from most of its neighbors, and Richmond, even under a fair map. Why? Well, here's your dominant COI which influences the cultural perceptions of the resident population.

Ok then put VA beach with Cheasapeake instead of Norfolk, and of course Hanover must go with the Richmond white district before Charlottesville gets shoved in.

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting that you could make a VA-03 that is mostly based on Richmond, though you probably still need to branch a bit outside the area to get the minority population high enough:



A district like this for instance would be 44% white and 43% black, which is probably enough to qualify?

[lfromnj]

Worth noting that you could make a VA-03 that is mostly based on Richmond, though you probably still need to branch a bit outside the area to get the minority population high enough:



A district like this for instance would be 44% white and 43% black, which is probably enough to qualify?

No court is actually going to strike down a 40% black district based in Richmond, Democrats just want it a bit blacker and going to the South side because thats more polarized and makes it less of a sink and frees up people for Spanberger.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, for those wondering I would pair the Charlottesville region, which is very different from most of its neighbors, and Richmond, even under a fair map. Why? Well, here's your dominant COI which influences the cultural perceptions of the resident population.

Ok then put VA beach with Cheasapeake instead of Norfolk, and of course Hanover must go with the Richmond white district before Charlottesville gets shoved in.

You Know, I mostly agree with you, albeit with specific modifications...

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I would probably make VA-03 take in more of Norfolk, and I've actually drawn it in such a way where you don't need to extend it west, and I'd move some of those more western parts of the 3rd into the 4th, the 4th simply went too far west, which led to the 5th being placed oddly. I actually don't have a problem with the Charlottesville to Richmond snake, but I'd shift the 1st north into your present 5th, and recreate the 5th in southern Virginia, as the 4th was pushed back to the east. Also maybe keeping the 11th compact in Fairfax/PWC avoids having to place Manassas and Fairfax into your 5th.

I really don't want to connect Virginia beach with the cities on the peninsula. (I didn't even want to do this with the Norfolk-Newport Beach district, but it is VRA mandated. Also, you can see in my new map that I cleaned up the Fairfax/PWC lines, although I'm still not convinced that makes a better map.

5-1-5 fair map.  Richmond seat is 42% black, 46% white.  The swing seat in VA beach is Trump+2, bluer than the current seat there.  I'd expect this to end up being 6D-5R, due to how SEVA trended in the gov race and senate race, but the tossup could definitely go red in an election which leans republican even by a point nationally.

Woooow. And I'm the partisan mapmaker? Four rings in NoVa is INSANE. You're connecting Woodbridge to Ashburn and Fredericksburg to Leesburg. If the most efficient route between any two points in a NoVa district involves passing through another district, then you've done something wrong. That's why the area needs wedges radiating out from the beltway, not skinny concentric rings.

Fixing that alone should make four safe D districts. You made an extremely awkward Southwest VA, Shenandoah, and Southside configuration but that's just a mistake instead of gerrymandering so I'll ignore that.

Placing the Delmarva Peninsula with the Tidewater makes no sense given where the bridge is, your VA Beach/Norfolk district line is an obvious gerrymander given it requires crossing twice from the Southside to the Peninsula to go between the two lobes of your yellow district. VA Beach needs to take in the Delmarva Peninsula and some of Norfolk under any fair map which should push it further left. Also, your Richmond district looks unnecessarily weird.

Anyway, you should clean up green and make that a safe Dem seat and move teal a couple points left if you want that seriously considered as a fair map.

Cleaned up NoVa, doesn't really change anything except aesthetics however.  And SEVA is drawn fair, could be much more gop friendly.  The Norfolk district could be made more compact, but then the VA Beach seat becomes redder

You shouldn't connect Fredricksburg to West Loudoun. Fredricksburg needs to move into the dark green district which forces some of Fairfax or PWC into the lime district. Breaking up the I-95 corridor is wrong. Also, Hampton Roads is insanely non-compact. On a map, your yellow district looks like this:



Basically, you carved out the inner neighborhoods of Portsmouth and Norfolk and attach them across a massive body of water to a butchered-up peninsula, from where you attach them back across the water to Suffolk and the Southside. At the same time, you pair the Delmarva Peninsula with the Hampton Roads Peninsula despite no fixed link attaching the two.

[Nyvin]

Northampton and Accomack (Delmarva) really does belong with Virginia Beach, it's just too awkward not to have them together.

[lfromnj]

Northampton and Accomack (Delmarva) really does belong with Virginia Beach, it's just too awkward not to have them together.

By COI they belong with Tidewater, however the problem is the only bridge they have to the mainland is  in Virginia Beach so you have to shove them with VA beach in almost any map.

[Idaho Conservative]

Northampton and Accomack (Delmarva) really does belong with Virginia Beach, it's just too awkward not to have them together.

By COI they belong with Tidewater, however the problem is the only bridge they have to the mainland is  in Virginia Beach so you have to shove them with VA beach in almost any map.

Is a bridge more important than the COI?  I don't really care about that honestly.