2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[lfromnj]

Anyway know a map the GOP could flip the state senate map with a GOP leaning gerrymander from a court?
First things first, make district 21 Safe for the GOP by removing VA tech(this is actually a fair move and not a gerrymander)

How can they get the 21st seat ? Can't take another seat from NOVA obviously as those seats will have to shrink
so the remaining 9 D seats are
1 Charlottesville
3 Richmond(2 black Safe D and 1 Clinton +12 white seat but also another Clinton +2 seat thats R held that they have to shore up)
5 D hampton roads and 1 R held Clinton +0 seat. All 5 are very Safe D. I guess the best bet is to split Charlottesville? Gonna be a hard push for a court to split it but is the easiest to take care of as there would be no other GOP seat at risk.

[nerd73]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Krazen's losing his touch - there's some red precincts inside his VA03, VA04, and NOVA packs that could easily be swapped for nearby blue ones.

[morgieb]

How likely is that the map gets chucked to the Supreme Court rather than the commission working?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Krazen's losing his touch - there's some red precincts inside his VA03, VA04, and NOVA packs that could easily be swapped for nearby blue ones.

His map is cleaner than yours tbf and both va 7 and va 2 are redder.
However I did warn him about the water usage.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Krazen's losing his touch - there's some red precincts inside his VA03, VA04, and NOVA packs that could easily be swapped for nearby blue ones.

His map is cleaner than yours tbf and both va 7 and va 2 are redder.
However I did warn him about the water usage.

That's because I didn't draw a GOP gerry LOL. This is my 7-5 GOP gerry:



VA01: 56/38 Trump, R+10
VA02: 53/41 Trump, R+7.15
VA05: 56.5/38 trump, R+10.2
VA06: 60/34 Trump, R+13.8
VA07: 56/38 Trump, R+11.6
VA09: 62.5/33 Trump, R+14.4

Like I said, losing his touch.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Krazen's losing his touch - there's some red precincts inside his VA03, VA04, and NOVA packs that could easily be swapped for nearby blue ones.

His map is cleaner than yours tbf and both va 7 and va 2 are redder.
However I did warn him about the water usage.

That's because I didn't draw a GOP gerry LOL. This is my 7-5 GOP gerry:



VA01: 56/38 Trump, R+10
VA02: 53/41 Trump, R+7.15
VA05: 56.5/38 trump, R+10.2
VA06: 60/34 Trump, R+13.8
VA07: 56/38 Trump, R+11.6
VA09: 62.5/33 Trump, R+14.4

Like I said, losing his touch.

He wanted it to be clean as possible for a court map
https://mobile.twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1258427751830302722
Was talking about this map.
The gop could very easily push Krazens map to the Suprmee court and they might just auto pick it. I mean literally anyone would call your map a gerrymander but krazen's is really clean outside of NOVA 10.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Krazen's losing his touch - there's some red precincts inside his VA03, VA04, and NOVA packs that could easily be swapped for nearby blue ones.

His map is cleaner than yours tbf and both va 7 and va 2 are redder.
However I did warn him about the water usage.

That's because I didn't draw a GOP gerry LOL. This is my 7-5 GOP gerry:



VA01: 56/38 Trump, R+10
VA02: 53/41 Trump, R+7.15
VA05: 56.5/38 trump, R+10.2
VA06: 60/34 Trump, R+13.8
VA07: 56/38 Trump, R+11.6
VA09: 62.5/33 Trump, R+14.4

Like I said, losing his touch.

He wanted it to be clean as possible for a court map
https://mobile.twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1258427751830302722
Was talking about this map.
The gop could very easily push Krazens map to the Suprmee court and they might just auto pick it.

Could the Dem legislature impeach the Supreme Court justices for picking a map like this?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Krazen's losing his touch - there's some red precincts inside his VA03, VA04, and NOVA packs that could easily be swapped for nearby blue ones.

His map is cleaner than yours tbf and both va 7 and va 2 are redder.
However I did warn him about the water usage.

That's because I didn't draw a GOP gerry LOL. This is my 7-5 GOP gerry:



VA01: 56/38 Trump, R+10
VA02: 53/41 Trump, R+7.15
VA05: 56.5/38 trump, R+10.2
VA06: 60/34 Trump, R+13.8
VA07: 56/38 Trump, R+11.6
VA09: 62.5/33 Trump, R+14.4

Like I said, losing his touch.

He wanted it to be clean as possible for a court map
https://mobile.twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1258427751830302722
Was talking about this map.
The gop could very easily push Krazens map to the Suprmee court and they might just auto pick it.

Could the Dem legislature impeach the Supreme Court justices for picking a map like this?

No for either map, you would need 2/3 of the vote I assume. PA GOP considered doing it as they had a majority in the state house and a super-majority in the state senate which is what was required but that was not gonna work as it would just result in Democrats reelecting the same justices and more anger at the GOP. Oryxslayers map goes a bit too ugly, the goal is to pass a map that is clean to the public eye but still a blatant gerrymander.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Krazen's losing his touch - there's some red precincts inside his VA03, VA04, and NOVA packs that could easily be swapped for nearby blue ones.

His map is cleaner than yours tbf and both va 7 and va 2 are redder.
However I did warn him about the water usage.

That's because I didn't draw a GOP gerry LOL. This is my 7-5 GOP gerry:



VA01: 56/38 Trump, R+10
VA02: 53/41 Trump, R+7.15
VA05: 56.5/38 trump, R+10.2
VA06: 60/34 Trump, R+13.8
VA07: 56/38 Trump, R+11.6
VA09: 62.5/33 Trump, R+14.4

Like I said, losing his touch.

He wanted it to be clean as possible for a court map
https://mobile.twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1258427751830302722
Was talking about this map.
The gop could very easily push Krazens map to the Suprmee court and they might just auto pick it.

Could the Dem legislature impeach the Supreme Court justices for picking a map like this?

No for either map, you would need 2/3 of the vote I assume. PA GOP considered doing it as they had a majority in the state house and a super-majority in the state senate which is what was required but that was not gonna work as it would just result in Democrats reelecting the same justices and more anger at the GOP. Oryxslayers map goes a bit too ugly, the goal is to pass a map that is clean to the public eye but still a blatant gerrymander.

Can’t they just strike it down and do a complete redraw once the VA SC inevitably flips?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Krazen's losing his touch - there's some red precincts inside his VA03, VA04, and NOVA packs that could easily be swapped for nearby blue ones.

His map is cleaner than yours tbf and both va 7 and va 2 are redder.
However I did warn him about the water usage.

That's because I didn't draw a GOP gerry LOL. This is my 7-5 GOP gerry:



VA01: 56/38 Trump, R+10
VA02: 53/41 Trump, R+7.15
VA05: 56.5/38 trump, R+10.2
VA06: 60/34 Trump, R+13.8
VA07: 56/38 Trump, R+11.6
VA09: 62.5/33 Trump, R+14.4

Like I said, losing his touch.

He wanted it to be clean as possible for a court map
https://mobile.twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1258427751830302722
Was talking about this map.
The gop could very easily push Krazens map to the Suprmee court and they might just auto pick it.

Could the Dem legislature impeach the Supreme Court justices for picking a map like this?

No for either map, you would need 2/3 of the vote I assume. PA GOP considered doing it as they had a majority in the state house and a super-majority in the state senate which is what was required but that was not gonna work as it would just result in Democrats reelecting the same justices and more anger at the GOP. Oryxslayers map goes a bit too ugly, the goal is to pass a map that is clean to the public eye but still a blatant gerrymander.

Can’t they just strike it down and do a complete redraw once the VA SC inevitably flips?

Takes till 2028 IIRc or even 2030. Also Rs can try to gerrymander the legislature  and hope for a GOp governor down the line to replace the old justices.
I guess coz charlottesville is already split they take that seat for the state senate and then make a fair district for roanake.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Krazen's losing his touch - there's some red precincts inside his VA03, VA04, and NOVA packs that could easily be swapped for nearby blue ones.

His map is cleaner than yours tbf and both va 7 and va 2 are redder.
However I did warn him about the water usage.

That's because I didn't draw a GOP gerry LOL. This is my 7-5 GOP gerry:



VA01: 56/38 Trump, R+10
VA02: 53/41 Trump, R+7.15
VA05: 56.5/38 trump, R+10.2
VA06: 60/34 Trump, R+13.8
VA07: 56/38 Trump, R+11.6
VA09: 62.5/33 Trump, R+14.4

Like I said, losing his touch.

He wanted it to be clean as possible for a court map
https://mobile.twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1258427751830302722
Was talking about this map.
The gop could very easily push Krazens map to the Suprmee court and they might just auto pick it.

Could the Dem legislature impeach the Supreme Court justices for picking a map like this?

No for either map, you would need 2/3 of the vote I assume. PA GOP considered doing it as they had a majority in the state house and a super-majority in the state senate which is what was required but that was not gonna work as it would just result in Democrats reelecting the same justices and more anger at the GOP. Oryxslayers map goes a bit too ugly, the goal is to pass a map that is clean to the public eye but still a blatant gerrymander.

Can’t they just strike it down and do a complete redraw once the VA SC inevitably flips?

Takes till 2028 IIRc or even 2030. Also Rs can try to gerrymander the legislature  and hope for a GOp governor down the line to replace the old justices.
I guess coz charlottesville is already split they take that seat for the state senate and then make a fair district for roanake.

IIRC, we only need one more Justice to flip the VA SC and one of the Republicans is termed out in March 2024.  The Democrats could seek emergency relief and full redraws of the state legislative maps and certainly the congressional map.  I mean, there's only so much that can be done to us in NOVA and once you add in the rest of the state, the Republicans really need to run the board even with a favorable map.  The State Senate could get dicey, but it's also a little trickier to gerrymander the non-NOVA seats to give the Republicans the kind of help they'd need.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Obviously I can't match the exact precincts, but I'm quite sure that VA-4 is only around 39% AA.  Putting all the white Richmond suburbs in the district lowers the black percentage quite a bit.

VA Dems can just make a superior AA seat and win in the courts with that map.   Visual aesthetics isn't the only thing they look at.  



The VA-5 in that map is also only 31% AA.   It's an obvious pack and crack.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Obviously I can't match the exact precincts, but I'm quite sure that VA-4 is only around 39% AA.  Putting all the white Richmond suburbs in the district lowers the black percentage quite a bit.

VA Dems can just make a superior AA seat and win in the courts with that map.   Visual aesthetics isn't the only thing they look at.  



The VA-5 in that map is also only 31% AA.   It's an obvious pack and crack.

Which courts?
The Old VA03 was a blatantly ugly map which clearly packed blacks, VA 04 is a clear compact COI to the Gingles test and would still very likely elect the black groups choice. There is 0 chance Scotus strikes down that VA04.
 You can't say that VA 4 doesn't have enough blacks but then say VA 5 is too cracked.

[voice_of_resistance]

Here's my take on what a blatant 9-2 Dem gerrymander could look like, should a Dem win VA-05 given the recent Riggleman events.




https://davesredistricting.org/join/b17d81b0-17da-4200-970d-b0a96597fd3c

VA-01: Richmond, western Henrico and Tidewater
Clinton 47-46, Northam 51-47, Kaine 55-43

VA-02: Virginia Beach and Hampton
Clinton 51-43, Northam 57-42, Kaine 59-39

VA-03: Newport News, eastern Henrico and Richmond
49.5% WVAP, 42% BVAP, Clinton 61-34, Northam 64-35, Kaine 67-32

VA-04: Petersburg, Chesapeake, south Chesterfield
55% WVAP, 38% BVAP, Clinton 51-45, Northam 55-44, Kaine 57-42

VA-05: Lynchburg, Southside, Spotsylvania
Trump 60-35, Gillespie 62-37, Stewart 57-41

VA-06: Charlottesville, Shenandoah, Roanoke, Blacksburg
Trump 48-45, Northam 51-48, Kaine 54-44

VA-07: Stafford, eastern Prince William
53% WVAP, Clinton 60-34, Northam 63-36, Kaine 66-32

VA-08: Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church
Clinton 72-21, Northam 75-24, Kaine 78-20

VA-09: Southwest, Salem
Trump 71-25, Gillespie 70-29, Stewart 67-32

VA-10: Winchester, Leesburg, Reston
Clinton 51-42, Northam 56-43, Kaine 59-39

VA-11: Culpeper, Centreville, Manassas
Clinton 50-44, Northam 54-45, Kaine 57-41

VA-01: Abigail Spanberger (D), Likely D
VA-02: Elaine Luria (D), Likely D
VA-03: Bobby Scott (D), Safe D
VA-04: Donald McEachin (D), Safe D (has to move but would easily get reelected)
VA-05: new R seat (Matt Farris?), Safe R
VA-06: new D seat (RD Huffstetler?), Tossup/Tilt D
VA-07: new D seat (Qasim Rashid?), Safe D
VA-08: Don Beyer (D), Safe D
VA-09: Morgan Griffith (R), Safe R
VA-10: Jennifer Wexton (D), Safe D
VA-11: Gerry Connolly (D), Safe D

9-2 D. You're welcome.

[lfromnj]

Put Lyncbhurg in the 6th district, its pretty swing and then remove some titanium R areas.

[voice_of_resistance]

I would have, but I didn't want it to become too ugly. When I drew the Dem-leaning rural seat I was thinking I could either pair Cville with Lynchburg/Roanoke or Shenandoah/Roanoke. Pairing with the Shenandoah makes for a less ridiculous-looking R southside district. I do see your point though.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's my take on a fair map (7D-3R, 2 Black VRA, etc.)



I really hate connecting Charlottesville and Richmond, but if you undo that, then you end up with a two-lobe district connected via a neck in Spotsylvania County (I'm not willing to change my Shenendoah, Southwest, and Richmond/Southside VRA seats). Are there any better ways to fix this problem?

I'm also conflicted about whether to pull a district out of Fairfax and create a more compact outer suburban seat, but I think NoVa is ultimately more characterized by three corridors outside the beltway along Dulles Toll Road, I-68, and I-95 than by inner and outer ring suburbs.

[voice_of_resistance]

This is a pretty good map, but I also don't usually like putting Cville with Richmond. Cville is better paired with either the Southside or the Shenandoah.

[Idaho Conservative]

Here's my take on a fair map (7D-3R, 2 Black VRA, etc.)



I really hate connecting Charlottesville and Richmond, but if you undo that, then you end up with a two-lobe district connected via a neck in Spotsylvania County (I'm not willing to change my Shenendoah, Southwest, and Richmond/Southside VRA seats). Are there any better ways to fix this problem?

I'm also conflicted about whether to pull a district out of Fairfax and create a more compact outer suburban seat, but I think NoVa is ultimately more characterized by three corridors outside the beltway along Dulles Toll Road, I-68, and I-95 than by inner and outer ring suburbs.

Fair? HAHAHAHAHAHA

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is not a fair map, this is a non-partisan map, and all that entails.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's my take on a fair map (7D-3R, 2 Black VRA, etc.)



I really hate connecting Charlottesville and Richmond, but if you undo that, then you end up with a two-lobe district connected via a neck in Spotsylvania County (I'm not willing to change my Shenendoah, Southwest, and Richmond/Southside VRA seats). Are there any better ways to fix this problem?

I'm also conflicted about whether to pull a district out of Fairfax and create a more compact outer suburban seat, but I think NoVa is ultimately more characterized by three corridors outside the beltway along Dulles Toll Road, I-68, and I-95 than by inner and outer ring suburbs.

Fair? HAHAHAHAHAHA

What are your specific criticisms? The Southside, Newport News-Norfolk, and Virginia Beach-Delmarva seats are basically locked in place by VRA and geography. The SWVA and Shenandoah seats are compact and follow clear COIs. Finally, four blue NoVa seats are unavoidable in any reasonable configuration. I've already discussed my issues with drawing Richmond, Charlottesville, and the Tidewater but even if you make a Tidewater-Charlottesville dumbbell seat and a more compact Richmond seat, the underlying partisanship won't change.

[Idaho Conservative]

Here's my take on a fair map (7D-3R, 2 Black VRA, etc.)



I really hate connecting Charlottesville and Richmond, but if you undo that, then you end up with a two-lobe district connected via a neck in Spotsylvania County (I'm not willing to change my Shenendoah, Southwest, and Richmond/Southside VRA seats). Are there any better ways to fix this problem?

I'm also conflicted about whether to pull a district out of Fairfax and create a more compact outer suburban seat, but I think NoVa is ultimately more characterized by three corridors outside the beltway along Dulles Toll Road, I-68, and I-95 than by inner and outer ring suburbs.

Fair? HAHAHAHAHAHA

What are your specific criticisms? The Southside, Newport News-Norfolk, and Virginia Beach-Delmarva seats are basically locked in place by VRA and geography. The SWVA and Shenandoah seats are compact and follow clear COIs. Finally, four blue NoVa seats are unavoidable in any reasonable configuration. I've already discussed my issues with drawing Richmond, Charlottesville, and the Tidewater but even if you make a Tidewater-Charlottesville dumbbell seat and a more compact Richmond seat then the underlying partisanship won't change.

Dicing up Fairfax 4 ways is absurd.  Why not a compact seat in the county?  Also splitting up Richmond unnecessarily.  A compact seat could be made there.

[S019]

I would probably make VA-03 take in more of Norfolk, and I've actually drawn it in such a way where you don't need to extend it west, and I'd move some of those more western parts of the 3rd into the 4th, the 4th simply went too far west, which led to the 5th being placed oddly. I actually don't have a problem with the Charlottesville to Richmond snake, but I'd shift the 1st north into your present 5th, and recreate the 5th in southern Virginia, as the 4th was pushed back to the east. Also maybe keeping the 11th compact in Fairfax/PWC avoids having to place Manassas and Fairfax into your 5th.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's my take on a fair map (7D-3R, 2 Black VRA, etc.)



I really hate connecting Charlottesville and Richmond, but if you undo that, then you end up with a two-lobe district connected via a neck in Spotsylvania County (I'm not willing to change my Shenendoah, Southwest, and Richmond/Southside VRA seats). Are there any better ways to fix this problem?

I'm also conflicted about whether to pull a district out of Fairfax and create a more compact outer suburban seat, but I think NoVa is ultimately more characterized by three corridors outside the beltway along Dulles Toll Road, I-68, and I-95 than by inner and outer ring suburbs.

Fair? HAHAHAHAHAHA

What are your specific criticisms? The Southside, Newport News-Norfolk, and Virginia Beach-Delmarva seats are basically locked in place by VRA and geography. The SWVA and Shenandoah seats are compact and follow clear COIs. Finally, four blue NoVa seats are unavoidable in any reasonable configuration. I've already discussed my issues with drawing Richmond, Charlottesville, and the Tidewater but even if you make a Tidewater-Charlottesville dumbbell seat and a more compact Richmond seat then the underlying partisanship won't change.

Dicing up Fairfax 4 ways is absurd.  Why not a compact seat in the county?  Also splitting up Richmond unnecessarily.  A compact seat could be made there.

I discussed this earlier. I think NoVa is more accurately divided into an inside the beltway region and three corridors (basically Reston-Loudoun, Vienna-Manassas, and Springfield-Fredricksburg.) Even if  I change NoVa around to consist of a Loudon-West PWC-Fauquier based seat, a Fairfax seat, a PWC-Fredricksburg seat, and an Arlington-Alexandria seat then the partisanship will be the exact same.

As for Richmond, you have to split it for VRA. It would be illegal not to do so. I can pull VA-08 in so VA-07 isn't in the metro area at all, but again, that won't change the partisanship of the map.

This is still a 7-3 map: