DeWine leads Hackett by 4%, Brown by 5%

[TheresNoMoney]

In the new premium Rasmussen poll out today:

DeWine  43%
Hackett  39%

DeWine 45%
Brown   40%

[Speed of Sound]

Woah! Thats not good. I hope this trend doesnt continue. Is there an article with it?

[nini2287]

This proves what we already know:

1) The race will be a tossup

2) Hackett is the stronger candidate (lower name recognition and still closer to DeWine)

Oh, Scoonie, do they have the OH Governor poll results up yet (premium only I think)?

[TheresNoMoney]

Oh, Scoonie, do they have the OH Governor poll results up yet (premium only I think)?

I don't have the premium membership but the results were posted on Daily Kos:

Strickland 44%
Blackwell 40%

Strickland 43%
Petro: 38%

Strickland: 49%
Montgomery  32%

[Gabu]

Woah! Thats not good. I hope this trend doesnt continue. Is there an article with it?

I wouldn't be so quick to say that this is all bad news; while DeWine is ahead, he is not over 50% (the comfort zone in politics), which means that this race will likely be decided by those who have yet to make up their minds.

[TheresNoMoney]

Woah! Thats not good.

DeWine is still quite vulnerable.

Is there an article with it?

I don't have a premium membership. I got the poll numbers off of Daily Kos.

[nini2287]

Thanks, those governor results aren't really surprising either.

[Speed of Sound]

It is true that im happy to see him <50%, but I guess it was just a shock from the last poll results, thats all.

[Joe Republic]

I predict this race to widen somewhat.

[CavanaughPark]

DeWine will win in the end. While undecides typically break for a challenger, many of the Ohio undecideds aren't liberal enough to break for Hackett or Brown. Besides, Brown will win the Democratic Primary anyway.

[TomC]

We politicos may know who Hackett is, but a lot of people don't. With his story, his affective campaigning, and Ohio's weak economy, Hackett will catch up and win. 4% is nothing.

[Ben.]

2) Hackett is the stronger candidate (lower name recognition and still closer to DeWine)

I rather think that’s the crux of it.

As Brown’s positions on the issues becomes widely known and the perception of him as a generic democrat – as most folks in Ohio who vaguely remember him being SoS a decade ago tend to believe – shifts to a perception of him as a “liberal Democrat”, in the Boxer/Pelosi/Kennedy mould, moderates and conservative democrats in rural and suburban Ohio will rally to DeWine, no doubt helped by an aggressive campaign on the part of the GOP.

Should it be Brown vs DeWine, then the incumbent Mike DeWine will have pushed his numbers into the 48-51% range by the summer, as the perception of Brown as being “too liberal” takes shape flames fanned as much by Brown’s own voting record as by the DeWine campaign, at the same time Brown simply fails to move beyond the Democratic core vote hovering round 42-44% and at least 5 points behind DeWine.


In contrast Hackett is less well-known but what perception of him that there is relates primarily to him being perceived as “tough” (what ever that means) as a result of him being a combat veteran. It is much harder for Hackett to provide his opponents with the kind of rope they’ll gleefully hang Brown and as a result Hackett can’t be boxed into Democratic base (or if we’re thinking geographically Cleveland ) and can as a result carry the campaign into rural and suburban Ohio, seriously challenging DeWine in the process.   

If we have Hackett facing off against DeWine it’s a whole different race IMHO. As an incumbent who while uninspiring and representing a party that’s had its reputation tarnished nationally and dragged through the mud state wide DeWine is still a competent Senator, capable campaigner and not chronically tied to any ethical transgressions and as a result he’ll start out with a modest advantage the 2-5% range but nothing beyond that.   

As I’ve said while Brown will, in all likelihood, be quickly painted (and padlocked) into the Democratic base Hackett won’t and should be able to carry the election into the state as a whole. There probably is plenty of movement between the two in the polls but DeWine probably leads for the most part however neither candidate breaks 46-47% in the polls with the final break of undecideds deciding the race and being entirely down to the relative strength of the rival campaigns… in other words it’ll be a toss-up should Hackett be the Democratic candidate on election day, perhaps a slight edge to DeWine thanks to incumbency but nothing more.         

[CavanaughPark]

Hackett is going to need alot more than being "tough" to win a Senate race. Plus, DeWine should and probably would call into question his electoral experience. All he has been is a Milford (small town) City Council member. War combat is admirable but doesn't exclusively make one qualified for the US Senate. If Hackett isn't so well known, he'll gave to get known quickly to keep up the momentum.

[Gustaf]

Ouch. There goes that I guess...
Ohio just fell to 3rd place among likely senate gains for Democrats. It does seem kind of hard to beat an incumbent from that kind of position. I hope the OH Dems can get their act together and make a good campaign...err...

[Adlai Stevenson]

Surely its time for Democrats to take some offices in Ohio? The GOP's controlled the Governor's mansion since 1990 and both Senate seats since 1999.  Can Hackett beat Brown in the primary? I think its kind of interesting that Brown has had statewide experience as Secretary of State.  What was his record like? I really hope Hackett wins and beats DeWine.

[Gustaf]

I do think we'll take the Governor's mansion. But senate looks worse. It's really interesting that even the more pessimistic estimates have Democrats picking up 2-4 governorships, whereas senate is like...1...Dems might actually reach a majorit of governors, with a little luck, but senate is completely hopeless.

[WalterMitty]

im no fan of dewine, but im certainly pulling ofr him over g.i joe and that other inept.

[A18]

im no fan of dewine, but im certainly pulling ofr him over g.i joe and that other inept.

^^^

[AuH2O]

DeWine is going to do Hackett so dirty...

[Ben.]

Hackett is going to need alot more than being "tough" to win a Senate race.

Agree totally but political neophytes have many times beaten incumbents or won other hotly contested races… having an arresting personal narrative can go along way to achieving that.

But I agree again that Hackett will really have to pull the proverbial rabbit out the hat to beat DeWine.

As I say I’d expect DeWine to enjoy a very modest lead against Hackett in a campaign with the race being decided fairly late… it’s a race that may lean GOP ever so slightly but no more, though I’ll say again the obstacles between Hackett getting 46-47% of the vote and 50-51% are sizable to say the least. 

DeWine is going to do Hackett so dirty...

And that is based on what?

DeWine leads Hackett by a bare four points! And that’s in the context of Hackett having much lower name recognition than DeWine… DeWine may well crush Brown, Hackett is all together a tougher proposition. 

[Alcon]

DeWine is going to do Hackett so dirty...

Oh, God.  My eyes.

[Democratic Hawk]

Democrats are still in with a fair shout of picking up the Ohio governorship and Senate seat. It's early days

Dave

[MissCatholic]

Hackett will be lucky to get 85% of the democratic vote. So i think its a lost cause. If Dewine was more conservative Hackett would have a chance. But having someone running in a state that bush won who is against his legacy will result in bush campaigning for dewine.

[Ben.]

Hackett will be lucky to get 85% of the democratic vote. So i think its a lost cause. If Dewine was more conservative Hackett would have a chance. But having someone running in a state that bush won who is against his legacy will result in bush campaigning for dewine.

DeWine has cross over appeal this much is true but then again there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that so does Hackett, neither candidate would command 100% of their base some conservative Dems might go for DeWine, small-c conservatives and libertarians might well back Hackett and many on the right might abstain.   

Its still an eminently winnable race for the Democrats should Hackett be the candidate, though it will be tough for him to break out of the 46-48% range against an incumbent like DeWine.

Naturally Bush will back DeWine, and no doubt campaign for him helping with the GOP base but I don’t see much more effect than that, DeWine remains favoured in this race though not by that much against Hackett though by a wide margin should Brown be the candidate.   

[CavanaughPark]

Hackett's crossover appeal from the special election of OH-02 will not stand up in a Senate race. He's called Rush Limbaugh a jackass and also claimed without evidence that President Bush did cocaine. His love affair with the myDD and DailyKos crowd rubbed off on him and my guess is that through the course of a high profile Senate campaign, an environment Hackett has no experience in, he'd have his foot in his mouth many times (much like Howard Dean). DeWine comes off as a , moderate, and sensible statesmen. He's not popular with the firebrand Blackwell conservatives because of this but they'll have no one else to vote for in this election and that image of DeWine will sway independents, apolitical types, and maybe even some Democrats.  How Hackett's temper will stand through the course of a camapign (if he even makes it to the general) is the real question.