Hawaii

[MaC]

are they really pro-incumbent?

Where's the basis for this?  Barring a landslide (Nixon '72, Reagan '84) when have they not voted Democratic?

You can't say that Nixon and Reagan are the basis for being pro-incumbent either since they voted Clinton over Bush Sr. and Kerry over Bush Jr.

[minionofmidas]

Um.

1960, no incumbent but Rep vice president running for president
Hawaii 0.0 Dem, Nation 0.1 Dem (0.1 more Rep)
1964, Dem incumbent
Hawaii 57.6 Dem, Nation 22.6 Dem (35.0 more Dem)
1968, no incumbent but Dem vice president running for president
Hawaii 21.1 Dem, Nation 0.7 Rep (21.8 more Dem)
1972, Rep incumbent
Hawaii 25.0 Rep, Nation 23.2 Rep (1.8 more Rep)
1976, Rep incumbent
Hawaii 2.5 Dem, Nation 2.1 Dem (0.4 more Dem)
1980, Dem incumbent
Hawaii 1.9 Dem, Nation 9.7 Rep (11.6 more Dem)
1984, Rep incumbent
Hawaii 11.3 Rep, Nation 18.2 Rep (6.9 more Dem)
1988, no incumbent but Rep vice president running for president
Hawaii 9.5 Dem, Nation 7.8 Rep (17.3 more Dem)
1992, Rep incumbent
Hawaii 11.4 Dem, Nation 5.6 Dem (5.8 more Dem)
1996, Dem incumbent
Hawaii 25.3 Dem, Nation 8.5 Dem (16.8 more Dem)
2000, no incumbent but Dem vice president running for president
Hawaii 18.3 Dem, Nation 0.5 Dem (17.8 more Dem)
2004, Rep incumbent
Hawaii 8.7 Dem, Nation 2.4 Rep (11.1 more Dem)

1964d 35.0
1968d 21.8
2000d 17.8
1996d 16.8
1988r 17.3
1980d 11.6
2004r 11.1
1984r 6.9
1992r 5.8
1976r 0.4
1960r -0.1
1972r -1.8

1988 is the only election where no pro-incumbent bonus is apparent.

[WalterMitty]

the question is--why are they pro-incumbent?

[minionofmidas]

Not sure, but military traditions might play a role in that.

[WalterMitty]

Not sure, but military traditions might play a role in that.

are pacific islanders living elsewhere in the us also pro-incumbent?

[minionofmidas]

Not sure, but military traditions might play a role in that.

are pacific islanders living elsewhere in the us also pro-incumbent?

Who says it's pacific islanders doing all the swinging? In 2004, the most Republican areas in Hawaii are around Ewa, Mililani Town etc. Unfortunately, I don't know about swing.

[Alcon]

Not sure, but military traditions might play a role in that.

are pacific islanders living elsewhere in the us also pro-incumbent?

Who says it's pacific islanders doing all the swinging? In 2004, the most Republican areas in Hawaii are around Ewa, Mililani Town etc. Unfortunately, I don't know about swing.

Filipinos, then?

[MaC]

Um.

1960, no incumbent but Rep vice president running for president
Hawaii 0.0 Dem, Nation 0.1 Dem (0.1 more Rep)
1964, Dem incumbent
Hawaii 57.6 Dem, Nation 22.6 Dem (35.0 more Dem)
1968, no incumbent but Dem vice president running for president
Hawaii 21.1 Dem, Nation 0.7 Rep (21.8 more Dem)
1972, Rep incumbent
Hawaii 25.0 Rep, Nation 23.2 Rep (1.8 more Rep)
1976, Rep incumbent
Hawaii 2.5 Dem, Nation 2.1 Dem (0.4 more Dem)
1980, Dem incumbent
Hawaii 1.9 Dem, Nation 9.7 Rep (11.6 more Dem)
1984, Rep incumbent
Hawaii 11.3 Rep, Nation 18.2 Rep (6.9 more Dem)
1988, no incumbent but Rep vice president running for president
Hawaii 9.5 Dem, Nation 7.8 Rep (17.3 more Dem)
1992, Rep incumbent
Hawaii 11.4 Dem, Nation 5.6 Dem (5.8 more Dem)
1996, Dem incumbent
Hawaii 25.3 Dem, Nation 8.5 Dem (16.8 more Dem)
2000, no incumbent but Dem vice president running for president
Hawaii 18.3 Dem, Nation 0.5 Dem (17.8 more Dem)
2004, Rep incumbent
Hawaii 8.7 Dem, Nation 2.4 Rep (11.1 more Dem)

1964d 35.0
1968d 21.8
2000d 17.8
1996d 16.8
1988r 17.3
1980d 11.6
2004r 11.1
1984r 6.9
1992r 5.8
1976r 0.4
1960r -0.1
1972r -1.8

1988 is the only election where no pro-incumbent bonus is apparent.

how does a VP running count?  That's not incumbency.

[Gustaf]

Lol, sure it is.

[minionofmidas]

It's not quite the same, but obviously it does convey some bonus of incumbency. Anyways, exclude the VP runs, and you get:
1964d 35.0
1996d 16.8
1980d 11.6
2004r 11.1
1984r 6.9
1992r 5.8
1976r 0.4
1972r -1.8

[True Democrat]

I tried to find an old post on this, but here you go:

Hawaii has swung to the incumbent every election since its creation.

The partisan index shows the relative standing of Democrats and Republicans in a given state by comparing the state popular vote of the two parties with the national popular vote of the two parties.

Here is Hawaii's partisan index:

1960: 0.11 (R)
1964: 34.94 (D)
1968: 21.8 (D)
1972: 1.8 (R)
1976: 0.5 (D)
1980: 11.6(D)
1984: 6.9 (D)
1988: 17.2(D)
1992: 5.8 (D)
1996: 16.8 (D)
2000: 17.8 (D)
2004: 11.2 (D)

Reelection attempts (or incumbent election attempts for 1964) are in bold.

Just because Hawaii didn't necessarily swing to a candidate with its electoral votes, that doesn't mean the incumbent did not do better compared to the national average compared to their first election.

1964: Johnson took Kennedy's 0.11 R to a 34.94 D
1972: Nixon took his first 21.8 D to a 1.8 R (1.8% more Republican than the national average)
1980: Carter barely had an advantage on Ford (1.5D), but turned it into a 11.6 (D) against Reagan
1984: Reagan took Carter's 11.6(D) and improved to make it only 6.9% more Democratic than the national average
1992: Bush lost big to Duakakis (17.2% more Democratic than the national average) and made it only 5.8% more D than the national average against Clinton
1996: Clinton went from 5.8D to 16.8D
2004: Bush lost big to Gore here (17.8D) to making it only 11.2% more Democratic than the national average

EDIT: My mistake, I forgot to count 1976 as a reelection-like attempt.  This is the only one where Hawaii swung against the incumbent (though not by much).

[MaC]

Well, it is right about the swing.  Still, calling Hawaii pro-incumbent makes it sound like it voted for the incumbent all those times.  Still a democratic state. (Come to think of it, since Vermont is the only state to not increase it's vote total for Bush in 2004, aren't 49 of the states pro-incumbent in this instance?)

[True Democrat]

Well, it is right about the swing.  Still, calling Hawaii pro-incumbent makes it sound like it voted for the incumbent all those times.  Still a democratic state. (Come to think of it, since Vermont is the only state to not increase it's vote total for Bush in 2004, aren't 49 of the states pro-incumbent in this instance?)

But Hawaii always swings to the incumbent.

[minionofmidas]

Well, it is right about the swing.  Still, calling Hawaii pro-incumbent makes it sound like it voted for the incumbent all those times.  Still a democratic state. (Come to think of it, since Vermont is the only state to not increase it's vote total for Bush in 2004, aren't 49 of the states pro-incumbent in this instance?)

No, since we were comparing to national average as well.

[minionofmidas]

Here's election results by State House district. Any errors be mine (I compiled these from precinct results). Descriptions may be vague.

Hawaii County
1 66.9 - 32.1 North coast
2 61.6 - 37.5 Hilo north
3 60.9 - 38.5 Hilo south
4 65.0 - 34.0 around Cape Kumukahi
5 65.3 - 33.6 Southern 40% of island
6 51.4 - 47.6 Kailua-Kona
7 55.9 - 43.3 East coast north from Kailua-Kona

Maui County
8 60.8 - 38.2 Wailuku area west
9 62.5 - 36.8 Wailuku area east
10 56.5 - 42.7 west half of island, remainder
11 55.4 - 43.7 east half of island, west coast
12 61.4 - 37.8 east half of island, inland
13 66.7 - 32.0 east half of island, n and e coasts; Molokai, Lanai

Kauai County
14 62.4 - 36.6 North
15 60.4 - 38.8 Southeast
16 56.9 - 42.3 Southwest; Niihau

Honolulu County
17 49.8 - 49.8 Koko Head (three votes' margin)
18 51.3 - 48.2 Wailupe, Maunalua Bay
19 53.0 - 46.4 Waialae, Kahala
20 60.4 - 38.8 Saint Louis Heights (20 to 29 appears to be, roughly speaking, Honolulu)
21 60.1 - 39.1 Diamond Head
22 59.2 - 40.1 north of Kapiolani Boulevard
23 54.9 - 44.3 Waikiki
24 62.0 - 37.4 University area
25 57.9 - 41.4 Noho Ave, North Central Honolulu?
26 57.1 - 42.2 Punchbowl
27 54.7 - 44.7 North of Harbor area
28 53.1 - 45.8 Harbor area
29 45.6 - 53.6 Dillingham Boulevard
30 51.2 - 48.3 Likelike Highway
31 50.8 - 48.7 Salt Lake
32 45.3 - 54.2 Airport, Ford Island
33 51.3 - 48.3 Aiea
34 53.6 - 45.8 Pearl City, Royal Summit
35 48.5 - 51.0 Waipahu, Crestview
36 54.2 -45.4 Pacific Palisades
37 48.7 - 50.8 Mililani Town South
38 46.6 - 53. Mililani Town North
39 49.0 - 50.2 Wahiawa, Whitmore Village
40 40.9 - 58.5 Ewa west, Makakilo
41 45.3 - 54.2 area between Mililani Town and Pearl Harbor
42 45.6 - 53.7 Ewa
43 40.8 - 58.8 Ewa Beach
44 44.0 - 55.4 Nanakuli, Maili
45 46.9 - 52.0 Waianawe
46 46.6 - 52.8 north coast
47 45.8 - 53.3 northeast coast
48 53.7- 45.8 Kaneohe west
49 50.1 - 49.4 Kaneohe east
50 48.8 - 50.6 Kailua
51 51.9 - 47.2 Lanikai, Waimanolo

[Kevin]

   I had a teacher from HI one time and she said Hi was trending Republican because of issues like high taxes and poor management. Also I wouldn't be too shocked to see the Republicans gain a Congressial seat in HI or even gaining one or both Senate seats when Inahole or Akakia both retaire or die. In addition to this I read somewhere that 20 or so years from now HI could be as Republican as MO or TN.       

[Alcon]

   I had a teacher from HI one time and she said Hi was trending Republican because of issues like high taxes and poor management. Also I wouldn't be too shocked to see the Republicans gain a Congressial seat in HI or even gaining one or both Senate seats when Inahole or Akakia both retaire or die. In addition to this I read somewhere that 20 or so years from now HI could be as Republican as MO or TN.       

Wherever you read this was dreaming a tad.

Hawaii is fairly lbieral both socially and economically.  Foreign policy may be a different story, but on a whole, the state is very Democratic.

Both Congressional Districts trended nearly equally GOP this time around.  In 2000, Gore received 55% in the 1st and 56% in the 2nd.

I'd be surprised to not see Hawai'i strongly Democratic in 2008.  As Republican as Tennessee or Missouri?  I can't imagine why, without a change in the national parties.  A big one.

[Kevin]

  Look at states like NJ or CT 20 years ago and you could see the reasoning with HI.

[Alcon]

  Look at states like NJ or CT 20 years ago and you could see the reasoning with HI.

Look at most of the country 20 years ago...CT and NJ have gone to slightly more Republican than national average to more Democratic than national average, to be fair.

I think we've seen more than a little national issues shift over 20 years.  It isn't that Connecticut and New Jersey went from conservative to liberal.  Social issues became more important, among other things.

However, Hawai'i won't become Republican unless the important issues shift or the national parties do.

[Kevin]

      HI politics are more then a little diffrent from mainland US politics because HI is so isolated from the country in terms of geography and economics. In concern to economics just about everything in HI has to be imported and the way HI been so stunly Democratic since statehood and with this dominice has come very high taxes and regulations on these imports and this has made life difficult in some aspects for the averge citizen in HI. Also in addition these high taxes along with uncontrolled spending drove out the sugar industry of HI in the 1980s and when the sugar industry left so did the jobs with it. The island also has been suffering from not just high taxes and regulation but poor management, high corruption, and social problems aggervited by high crime levels patcuarly in the poorer parts of the Houloulu area.               

[Kevin]

     As I said before I knew a teacher from HI and she said that the people are tired of all of this and want change in their state and are voting for it.

[PBrunsel]

I recall a pundit saying in 2000 that you can get elected to office in Hawaii by giving out free potato chips. That's quite a ringing endorsemnt of the state.

[Kevin]

LOL! However did you did you read what I posted?   

[ottermax]

Hawaii has a very high cost of living, and most people have to work hard to earn a living. My relatives in Hawaii are Asian-Americans, and traditionally Democrat. My grandparents live in a small 1 story house where the rooms merge together. Its very different here on the mainland where you can get a huge house for about the same price. My other relatives live in apartments, and although the unemployment rate the lowest in the nation (3.3 according to wikipedia) most of the jobs pay the same as on the mainland, but everything costs twice as much. These struggles with money and the Democrats' views for programs such as free healthcare and welfare appeal to many Hawaiians struggling to make ends meet.

I also remember an article I read from the 2004 election about the different ethnic groups and their voting patterns. The largest group, the Japanese, vote heavily Democratic, while Filipinos, Military, and Native Hawaiians were voting for Bush (the reason the election was closer than expected). The Whites were split down the middle.

I hope this clears out some debate, and much of these are assumptions that I can't prove since I don't live in Hawaii.

[Flying Dog]

Hawaii is a safe democratic enclave. If they lose america they can always retreat to Hawaii.