OK Gov 2018-Would Mary Fallin have won re-election?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

After seeing Bevin lose, I think it's reasonable to conclude she would have lost.

[OBD]

It's a different case. Kentucky is more elastic than Oklahoma, and Oklahoma is a redder state anyway.

[DaWN]

She would have won. It would have been closer though.

[Skunk]

I don't think so, but for very different reasons than Kentucky. I think Fallin would have absolutely cratered in OKC and Tulsa and its surrounding suburbs, but I don't see a rural resurgence in places like Coal County that happened in Elliott and other rural countines in East Kentucky.

[Pericles]

I think she'd have won very narrowly, given Kentucky is not as Republican as Oklahoma and Oklahoma is less inclined to vote for Democrats down-ballot, and so since Bevin lost she'd win by a few points. However, it would be much closer than Stitt's margin, and it does go to show in retrospect that this race wasn't a great comparison with Kentucky due to the incumbent not running.

[Frenchrepublican]

Unlikely. Tulsa, Payne, Osage, Comanche would flip

[MT Treasurer]

Pure Tossup, either Edmonson wins by a similar margin as Beshear or Fallin gets Brownback'd. I don’t think people realize how toxic Fallin was in OK, she only won in 2014 of all years by 15% when she was more popular than in 2018. She could have easily lost.

[ElectionsGuy]

It definitely would've been a toss-up, instead of Lean or Likely R. Fallin was more unpopular than Bevin but in a redder state and a more reliably Republican state with less registered Democrats (but still a significant amount for how it usually votes). Probably would've gone down to the wire but if I had to say I think Fallin would pull it out by a <1% margin.

[SnowLabrador]

She would have won. It would have been closer though.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

It's a different case. Kentucky is more elastic than Oklahoma, and Oklahoma is a redder state anyway.

True, but Edmondson was more a conservative candidate than Andy Beshear.

[Skill and Chance]

Fallin wins, but likely by <5%.  Part of the reason Beshear made it over the line is that it's inherently harder to nationalize odd year elections.  The VA GOP, NJ GOP, and MS Dems all did substantially better in 2019 than in 2018, and JBE is in a toss up runoff at worst in nearly 60% Trump LA.  VA and NJ 2017 were very Dem relative to the past, but even those ended up being a Dem underperformance in ancestrally R suburbs vs. 2018.  It's still easier to be the "wrong" party in an odd year.