Rank the Southern States from easiest to hardest to win for Democrats

[OSR stands with Israel]

In Gubernatorial Races(Not Presidential or Senate) and dont do generic dem vs generic gop, consider things like who each party is likely to nominate.

Likely D:
1. Virginia

Tossup:
2. North Carolina

Lean R:
3. Georgia
4. Florida

Likely R(Dems can win right now either due to running an excellent campaign or GOP running a terrible one)
5. Louisiana
6. Kentucky
7. West Virginia(Dems still have a good track record of here as of late but this likely will fall to number 11 or 12 in 4-5 years)

Likely R, Closer to Safe than Lean(These probably wont be within 5 points till 2030 at least):
8. Mississippi
9. Texas( Explain more below)

Safe R:
10. Arkansas
11. South Carolina
12. Tennessee
13. Alabama
14. Oklahoma



While Texas now in federal races(Presidential and Senate) would be ranked as the 5th most Dem state on this list its a whole different story at gubernatorial candidates . Texas GOP bench remains very strong with Abbott being able to run for another term if he wants to and George P Bush likely being Abbott successor will keep this seat in Republican hands till at least 2030.

Also running  a state wide race in Texas is very very difficult while in the more smaller states like KY/MS/WV/LA its much easier to get your campaign tailor made for that state and win. Also add in the fact that KY/WV/LA GOP is no where near as competent as the Texas GOP(with the KY GOP and WV GOP being in the incompetent range) .

[One Term Floridian]

FL Gov belongs in a tier of its own for Democrats - fool’s gold. Always so close, yet so far. SC should be ahead of AR and TX Gov should become more competitive once Abbott retires.

[OSR stands with Israel]

FL Gov belongs in a tier of its own for Democrats - fool’s gold. Always so close, yet so far. SC should be ahead of AR and TX Gov should become more competitive once Abbott retires.

Not with George P Bush being on the horizon. To me SC in this analogy is MS and AR is KY , with KY/AR being the more redder state at the Presidential level and in a pure gen dem vs gen gop race but they are more elastic as well

[One Term Floridian]

FL Gov belongs in a tier of its own for Democrats - fool’s gold. Always so close, yet so far. SC should be ahead of AR and TX Gov should become more competitive once Abbott retires.

Not with George P Bush being on the horizon. To me SC in this analogy is MS and AR is KY , with KY/AR being the more redder state at the Presidential level and in a pure gen dem vs gen gop race but they are more elastic as well

I think AR has lost any elasticity it once had and is now just another Titanium R state down there

[😥]

In gubernatorial races:
1. Virginia
2. North Carolina
3. Louisiana
4. Kentucky
5. Texas* (without Abbott)
5. Florida
6. Georgia
7. West Virginia
8. South Carolina
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas (with Abbott)
11. Tennessee
12. Arkansas
13. Mississippi
14. Alabama

[One Term Floridian]

In gubernatorial races:
1. Virginia
2. North Carolina
3. Louisiana
4. Kentucky
5. Texas* (without Abbott)
5. Florida
6. Georgia
7. West Virginia
8. South Carolina
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas (with Abbott)
11. Tennessee
12. Arkansas
13. Mississippi
14. Alabama

Honestly if even Jim Hood is barely getting within 5 points in MS, I agree it’s totally unwinnable for Dems at this point

[MillennialModerate]

I don’t consider Oklahoma a “Southern State” - to me it’s more Southwest.

But other than Oklahoma, I’d say Tennessee is the hardest. That senate race last year was one of the more shameful results I have ever seen. The fact Bredesen lost to that swamp monster hack McSally says a lot. I honestly think Roy Moore would win that state, disgusting.

[Sir Mohamed]

A quick reminder: Dems have won 3 gov races in KY since 2000, in FL they have won ZERO. Since the last Dem victory in FL (1994), they won 5 in KY. FL Dems are hilarious.

Actually, all of these states except TX have elected Dem govs more recently than FL.

[coolface1572]

In gubernatorial races:
1. Virginia
2. North Carolina
3. Louisiana
4. Kentucky
5. Texas* (without Abbott)
5. Florida
6. Georgia
7. West Virginia
8. South Carolina
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas (with Abbott)
11. Tennessee
12. Arkansas
13. Mississippi
14. Alabama

Honestly if even Jim Hood is barely getting within 5 points in MS, I agree it’s totally unwinnable for Dems at this point

They could give it one more shot if Brandon Presley runs. If that fails, the dem party of MS might as well let the GOP go unopposed.

[pppolitics]

FL Gov belongs in a tier of its own for Democrats - fool’s gold. Always so close, yet so far. SC should be ahead of AR and TX Gov should become more competitive once Abbott retires.

That's only because Florida Democratic Party is the most incompetent state party in the nation.

[One Term Floridian]

FL Gov belongs in a tier of its own for Democrats - fool’s gold. Always so close, yet so far. SC should be ahead of AR and TX Gov should become more competitive once Abbott retires.

That's only because Florida Democratic Party is the most incompetent state party in the nation.

Yep started a thread about their losing streak a couple months ago. They’re a national embarrassment

[junior chįmp]

I can't see Arkansas, Alabama, or Tennessee ever going Dem

[Rookie Yinzer]

Virginia
North Carolina
Louisiana
Georgia
Florida
South Carolina
Texas
Mississippi
Alabama
Tennessee
Arkansas

[Sir Mohamed]

I can't see Arkansas, Alabama, or Tennessee ever going Dem

Not the near future, I agree, but it's noteworthy TN and AR reelected Dem govs in 2006 and 2010, respectively, with massive landslides and majority in every single county.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

VA
NC
—
GA
FL
—
Combination of Strong Dem/flawed Republican = win
TX—this one can easily shift up a category or two with a decade or two, but not there yet. At least for midterm electorates. A Ken Paxton vs. Collin Allred race would be close
SC—more than the states in the category below, SC has enough urban and suburban areas to propel a Democrat to victory if the conditions are right.
LA—this one could easily fall into the category below, particularly if JBE loses
—
Dead Girl/Live Boy (never say never, but only under extreme circumstances going forward, like Roy Moore)
KY—happy to be wrong about Beshear winning, but this seems very much like a swan song for the KYDP. There’s no real bench left after Beshear, and no one else is going to have his family name and deep statewide ties.
MS—if Hood couldn’t get within 5, we’re gonna be locked out of here for a long time.
WV—see KY. Manchin’s victory last year seems like a swan song as well.
AR
TN
AL

[OSR stands with Israel]

VA
NC
—
GA
FL
—
Combination of Strong Dem/flawed Republican = win
TX—this one can easily shift up a category or two with a decade or two, but not there yet. At least for midterm electorates. A Ken Paxton vs. Collin Allred race would be close
SC—more than the states in the category below, SC has enough urban and suburban areas to propel a Democrat to victory if the conditions are right.
LA—this one could easily fall into the category below, particularly if JBE loses
—
Dead Girl/Live Boy (never say never, but only under extreme circumstances going forward, like Roy Moore)
KY—happy to be wrong about Beshear winning, but this seems very much like a swan song for the KYDP. There’s no real bench left after Beshear, and no one else is going to have his family name and deep statewide ties.
MS—if Hood couldn’t get within 5, we’re gonna be locked out of here for a long time.
WV—see KY. Manchin’s victory last year seems like a swan song as well.
AR
TN
AL

TX GOP has a very strong bench though , like for example George P Bush . After a George P Bush gubernatorial term this one will go up in the air . On MS, the demographic trends are so bad there for the GOP that it easily could be worse than TX or even GA demographics .

To win MS , the GOP relies on winning an abnormal propertion of white voters and I think someone on here showed if Dems got that number down to 78% while keeping pretty decent  turnout of African Americans , the MS Dems win . With Baby Boomers share of the electorate dropping , MS very well could be a swing state by the late 2020s and early 2030s . In TX individual  Republicans  have proven to make inroads with Hispanic voters and do very well with suburbanites too and George P Bush is exactly that guy while in MS , there have been almost no Republicans who have proven they can do well with African Americans voters .

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Is there any evidence that Mississippi’s demographics are going to get significantly more favorable for Democrats over time? It seems like the black counties are losing the most population.

I’d sooner bet on a Democrat winning a South Carolina gubernatorial race going forward before any of MS-LA-AR-TN-AL. The urban and suburban areas of SC have shown they are definitely amenable to voting for Democrats under the right circumstances, and there’s less of a hump to clear in that state compared to say, Mississippi.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Is there any evidence that Mississippi’s demographics are going to get significantly more favorable for Democrats over time? It seems like the black counties are losing the most population.

I’d sooner bet on a Democrat winning a South Carolina gubernatorial race going forward before any of MS-LA-AR-TN-AL. The urban and suburban areas of SC have shown they are definitely amenable to voting for Democrats under the right circumstances, and there’s less of a hump to clear in that state compared to say, Mississippi.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=299900.0

North Carolina Yankees explains it well here . I think MS Republicans like TX Republicans will control the Gubernatorial office until 2030 at least for TX GOP and 2031 at the latest for MS GOP . Given how small MS is I really don’t think the  National GOP will do very little to starve of the collapse of the state wide GOP while with TX they will put in a lot of efforts to keep it Republican and even adapt to the changing Demographics and George P Bush would be great at helping the party adapt as if the Republicans lose TX , the GOP nation wide would be locked out of the WH for quite some time



Unfortunately I don’t have much confidence in the GA GOP given how bad their bench will be for adapting to trends in GA

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

There is next to nothing the GOP can do to “adapt to the Texas trends” unless they totally revamp the way the national party is heading. You can’t isolate one from the other (ask the CA GOP or the AR Dems). George P. Bush isn’t some magical bullet for that just because he’s half Hispanic. And there’s no guarantee he’d beat Paxton or Patrick in a primary anyway

[OSR stands with Israel]

There is next to nothing the GOP can do to “adapt to the Texas trends” unless they totally revamp the way the national party is heading. You can’t isolate one from the other (ask the CA GOP or the AR Dems). George P. Bush isn’t some magical bullet for that just because he’s half Hispanic. And there’s no guarantee he’d beat Paxton or Patrick in a primary anyway

Trends are real but they are not destiny like you believe . When the Republicans were losing CA they made up for it by turning TX and the Deep South solidly Republican(which netted the GOP actually more EV then CA did ) and Dems just let AR go because it’s a state so small there is no point adapting to save it .


Republicans know that it’s either keep TX Republican or go into the political wilderness for quite some time and yes they will adapt to the changing demographics to not save Texas GOP but to save the GOP period . So yes the GOP will revamp and if Trump loses in 2020 , they will nominate Haley or DeSantis who will signal that revamp

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Is there any evidence that Mississippi’s demographics are going to get significantly more favorable for Democrats over time? It seems like the black counties are losing the most population.

I’d sooner bet on a Democrat winning a South Carolina gubernatorial race going forward before any of MS-LA-AR-TN-AL. The urban and suburban areas of SC have shown they are definitely amenable to voting for Democrats under the right circumstances, and there’s less of a hump to clear in that state compared to say, Mississippi.

Not happening.Older whites are moving to SC in droves and the white population is actually increasing. There's no hope for dems in SC.  Mississippi's black population is slowly increasing and I think it will eventually be competitive especially if republicans lose Madison and Lafayette. The only reason they win MS is because whites are 90% R. Obviously it will not happen anytime soon but there's a possibility.

[un]

Lower numbers easier, higher numbers harder:

Already blue states:
1. Virginia

Toss-up states: (these two could be interchangeable imo)
2. Florida
3. North Carolina

Lean red:
4. Georgia

Likely red:
5. Texas

Safe red:
6. South Carolina
7. Missouri (if you want to count that as southern and not midwestern)
8. West Virginia
9. Kentucky
10. Louisiana
11th. Tennessee
12 (or 13). Mississippi
13 (or 12). Alabama
14. Oklahoma (if you want to count that as southern and not Great Plains)
15. Arkansas (seriously, republicans have such a gigantic lead here demographically)

[OSR stands with Israel]

Lower numbers easier, higher numbers harder:

Already blue states:
1. Virginia

Toss-up states: (these two could be interchangeable imo)
2. Florida
3. North Carolina

Lean red:
4. Georgia

Likely red:
5. Texas

Safe red:
6. South Carolina
7. Missouri (if you want to count that as southern and not midwestern)
8. West Virginia
9. Kentucky
10. Louisiana
11th. Tennessee
12 (or 13). Mississippi
13 (or 12). Alabama
14. Oklahoma (if you want to count that as southern and not Great Plains)
15. Arkansas (seriously, republicans have such a gigantic lead here demographically)

Dems just won in Kentucky and will probably win in Louisiana so its not Safe at a Gubernatorial Level.  Dems also won WV Gov during the same year Trump won that state by 42 points lol so thats not Safe either.

Missouri isnt safe at the Gubernatorial level either

[MT Treasurer]

Only gubernatorial races and keeping each party's "bench" in mind:

1. VA

2. NC (would probably be GA if NC didn’t elect their governors in presidential years)
3. GA

4. FL
5. WV (for now, should be replaced by TX soon)
6. TX (lol at the idea of George P. Bush being the Republican savior here or the notion that TX is going back to being Safe R the moment Trump is gone)

7. MS
8. SC (you could certainly swap MS and SC)
9. KY (Beshear's win was hardly a sign of a massive Democratic resurgence here, the circumstances that allowed him to win were very unique.)
10. LA (I don’t think Democrats will be able to replicate JBE's success after (maybe?) 2019.)
11. OK
12. AL

13. TN

14. AR

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Is there any evidence that Mississippi’s demographics are going to get significantly more favorable for Democrats over time? It seems like the black counties are losing the most population.

I’d sooner bet on a Democrat winning a South Carolina gubernatorial race going forward before any of MS-LA-AR-TN-AL. The urban and suburban areas of SC have shown they are definitely amenable to voting for Democrats under the right circumstances, and there’s less of a hump to clear in that state compared to say, Mississippi.

Not happening.Older whites are moving to SC in droves and the white population is actually increasing. There's no hope for dems in SC.  Mississippi's black population is slowly increasing and I think it will eventually be competitive especially if republicans lose Madison and Lafayette. The only reason they win MS is because whites are 90% R. Obviously it will not happen anytime soon but there's a possibility.

The difference is SC is much more urban/suburban than Mississippi is (and that’s pretty much what matters most along with education in predicting where Dems have openings), and Democrats start with a decently higher floor in SC.

This is of course not to suggest that SC is in any real way favorable to Democrats or trending in their direction. But it’s not too hard to imagine a highly unpopular Republican Governor/candidate being toppled by a suburban coalition from a decent Democratic challenger