New Jersey legislative elections megathread

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I'm up at school right now so I haven't been super involved in this as an observer or otherwise, but my educated guess for my LD (LD-25) based on last year's races and demographic trends is that Bucco Jr (R) takes the top spot, and Bhimani (D) barely takes the second one, then Bucco Jr gets appointed to his late dad's senate seat and his running mate Bergen (R) gets appointed to the Assembly in his place. I really have no idea though. Based on what I've read from others on the forum the Republican campaign is mostly just lashing out angrily over various national happenings and cultural grievances (muh sp00ky socialists) while Democrats are remaining focused on pertinent local issues, which shows that Dems are probably a lot more confident than Republicans are right now, as should be expected for a state as generally suburban and educated as New Jersey is.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

So LD-25 stayed Republican after all. Morris County is definitely proving a very tough nut to crack for Dems not named Mikie Sherrill. They can get to the mid-high 40s, but they can't seem to get over the last little hump. However, Dems will have another crack at the Senate seat next year because there will be a special election to replace the late Anthony Bucco who died in September, and presidential turnout may change the calculus since Clinton narrowly won the district in the '16. I'm assuming there will be a special for one LD-25 Assembly seat at that time as well, since I'm assuming Assemblyman Bucco Jr. will be shortly be appointed to the Senate seat. Who would replace him in the Assembly is beyond my political knowledge (perhaps outgoing Assemblyman Michael Patrick Carroll, who lost the primary for Morris County Surrogate in June, will return?)

At the municipal level Dems continued to chip away at Republican dominance, though. They picked up the mayor's office in Boonton Town and Chatham Borough, as well as some council seats. Probably the best news was in Dover, the County's big Hispanic enclave, where Trump Democrat-turned-Indy Mayor James Dodd appears to have lost by about 19 votes to Democrat Carolyn Blackman, who will be the town's first black and first female mayor.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

And overall in the state, in the Assembly Dem losses were limited to far South Jersey (beyond even Metro Philly at the southern end of the state). Up in the Philly and North Jersey/NYC burbs, there doesn't seem to have been much Dem erosion at all, at least not enough to change the outcome.

(Regarding "Christie as a boogeyman" from earlier in the thread, as a lifelong New Jerseyan I still have whiplash from how quickly he went from Worse than Satan, to Untouchable God-Emperor, and back to Worse than Satan...)

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

And overall in the state, in the Assembly Dem losses were limited to far South Jersey (beyond even Metro Philly at the southern end of the state). Up in the Philly and North Jersey/NYC burbs, there doesn't seem to have been much Dem erosion at all, at least not enough to change the outcome.

(Regarding "Christie as a boogeyman" from earlier in the thread, as a lifelong New Jerseyan I still have whiplash from how quickly he went from Worse than Satan, to Untouchable God-Emperor, and back to Worse than Satan...)

I'm thankful to have been vindicated about Christie. I always hated him. Just because he didn't spit in Obama's face and managed to not be incompetent when it came to the aftermath of a hurricane never meant that he was a good Governor or even a good person.

I think the issue with Morris County's slow as molasses Somersetization, or tease of it, is that their voters (as with other voters in the state too) seem to be making a distinction between Trenton Republicans and Washington Republicans. They still favor the former while moving away from the latter. I wouldn't completely write off Morris County trending D in national elections, but in statewide elections, especially while Murphy is Governor, it will probably remain the solidly Republican county it always was.

I think that's it, for the most part. I know plenty of middle aged people (including my own mother) who were more than happy to vote for nice, middle-of-the-road army helicopter lady, to send a message to mean Trump but have a much harder time finding the will to "vote with Newark and Camden" on the state level. A lot of it is because of already-quite-high state taxes, but it's hard to deny there's not a level of racial animosity in the mix as well, especially since lots of people here are post-'67-riots white flight "refugees" from Newark and its immediate suburbs. In fact, while I'm sure there's a lot of literature about it, I don't think the '67 riots and their legacy gets enough attention wrt to how it affects suburban North Jersey politics.

In any case. demographic change will probably gradually start pulling Morris left, but that could take years. My sister's high school has a hell of a lot more Hispanics and Indian-Americans than when I went there, and it hasn't been THAT long since I went there. Change is on the way, but it could take a while yet...