New Jersey legislative elections megathread
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Mr. Matt
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« on: November 04, 2019, 11:24:26 AM »

Not too much expected to change really, IMHO, but based on this weather prediction:


RIP NJDEMS
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2019, 05:30:34 PM »

I'm up at school right now so I haven't been super involved in this as an observer or otherwise, but my educated guess for my LD (LD-25) based on last year's races and demographic trends is that Bucco Jr (R) takes the top spot, and Bhimani (D) barely takes the second one, then Bucco Jr gets appointed to his late dad's senate seat and his running mate Bergen (R) gets appointed to the Assembly in his place. I really have no idea though. Based on what I've read from others on the forum the Republican campaign is mostly just lashing out angrily over various national happenings and cultural grievances (muh sp00ky socialists) while Democrats are remaining focused on pertinent local issues, which shows that Dems are probably a lot more confident than Republicans are right now, as should be expected for a state as generally suburban and educated as New Jersey is.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2019, 07:09:29 PM »

I expect dismal turnout, as always in off-year New Jersey elections, but even more so with the weather forecast. Weirdly, it's rained three years in a row on election day here.

I have no doubt that the legislature will stay majority Democratic in both chambers, I just really don't want my Councilman, Chris DiPiazza, to win a seat in my Assembly district. I actually went to middle school with him, he was kind of an arrogant prick, if I'm being honest. Back then, he gave me a scar on my lip when he idiotically zipped the sweatshirt I was wearing all the way up to my lip, causing it to gush blood to the point of leaving a scar. I didn't cry or resent him for that. I was mostly just confused about why he did that for seemingly no reason. I mean, who even does that?That's not why I don't want him to win though, it's because he's a Republican, and apparently a very ambitious one. My district is usually solidly Democratic, but in an off-year election with low turnout like this, he or the other Republican he is running with could possibly win. They are already winning the lawn sign campaign.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2019, 09:00:02 PM »

Will be interesting to see how LD21 pans out. I'm guessing that Bramnick and Muñoz both lose, but I'm not sure what the margin is going to be. That district has trended so quickly to the Democrats it's hard to tell what that will look like.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2019, 04:21:39 PM »

I expect dismal turnout, as always in off-year New Jersey elections, but even more so with the weather forecast. Weirdly, it's rained three years in a row on election day here.

I have no doubt that the legislature will stay majority Democratic in both chambers, I just really don't want my Councilman, Chris DiPiazza, to win a seat in my Assembly district. I actually went to middle school with him, he was kind of an arrogant prick, if I'm being honest. Back then, he gave me a scar on my lip when he idiotically zipped the sweatshirt I was wearing all the way up to my lip, causing it to gush blood to the point of leaving a scar. I didn't cry or resent him for that. I was mostly just confused about why he did that for seemingly no reason. I mean, who even does that?That's not why I don't want him to win though, it's because he's a Republican, and apparently a very ambitious one. My district is usually solidly Democratic, but in an off-year election with low turnout like this, he or the other Republican he is running with could possibly win. They are already winning the lawn sign campaign.

I see DiPiazza as a future leader in NJ.

Was he really a prick? He has a charismatic look about him.

https://savejersey.com/2019/10/election-2019-new-jersey-assembly-legislative-race-results/

Other than that, I think Bramnick and Munoz both lose, and that does not bode well for Kean Jr. ext year. I think he loses to Malinowski and retires in 2021.

Suburban Westfield/Union County is trending D because of a lot of New Yorkers moving in.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2019, 06:18:45 PM »

I expect dismal turnout, as always in off-year New Jersey elections, but even more so with the weather forecast. Weirdly, it's rained three years in a row on election day here.

I have no doubt that the legislature will stay majority Democratic in both chambers, I just really don't want my Councilman, Chris DiPiazza, to win a seat in my Assembly district. I actually went to middle school with him, he was kind of an arrogant prick, if I'm being honest. Back then, he gave me a scar on my lip when he idiotically zipped the sweatshirt I was wearing all the way up to my lip, causing it to gush blood to the point of leaving a scar. I didn't cry or resent him for that. I was mostly just confused about why he did that for seemingly no reason. I mean, who even does that?That's not why I don't want him to win though, it's because he's a Republican, and apparently a very ambitious one. My district is usually solidly Democratic, but in an off-year election with low turnout like this, he or the other Republican he is running with could possibly win. They are already winning the lawn sign campaign.

I see DiPiazza as a future leader in NJ.

Was he really a prick? He has a charismatic look about him.

https://savejersey.com/2019/10/election-2019-new-jersey-assembly-legislative-race-results/

Other than that, I think Bramnick and Munoz both lose, and that does not bode well for Kean Jr. ext year. I think he loses to Malinowski and retires in 2021.

Suburban Westfield/Union County is trending D because of a lot of New Yorkers moving in.

I'm sure he's matured since middle school, he went to private school instead of public high school where I went. But back then he was very in your face and loudmouthed. I haven't actually seen or talked to him since eighth grade, but I can see how he is probably considered charismatic. His middle school persona probably translated into that. I won't deny that he could definitely have a future within the New Jersey GOP. But if he loses today, it might delay that.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2019, 07:43:01 PM »

I expect dismal turnout, as always in off-year New Jersey elections, but even more so with the weather forecast. Weirdly, it's rained three years in a row on election day here.

I have no doubt that the legislature will stay majority Democratic in both chambers, I just really don't want my Councilman, Chris DiPiazza, to win a seat in my Assembly district. I actually went to middle school with him, he was kind of an arrogant prick, if I'm being honest. Back then, he gave me a scar on my lip when he idiotically zipped the sweatshirt I was wearing all the way up to my lip, causing it to gush blood to the point of leaving a scar. I didn't cry or resent him for that. I was mostly just confused about why he did that for seemingly no reason. I mean, who even does that?That's not why I don't want him to win though, it's because he's a Republican, and apparently a very ambitious one. My district is usually solidly Democratic, but in an off-year election with low turnout like this, he or the other Republican he is running with could possibly win. They are already winning the lawn sign campaign.
My dad always zips my jackets too far up.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2019, 09:25:09 PM »

Any word on these yet?
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hurricanehink
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2019, 10:19:10 PM »

NJ’s 1st district  could be a flip, the GOP is in the lead by 3,500 votes. In the 2nd assembly district, GOP is up by 700.
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hurricanehink
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2019, 10:26:23 PM »

In the special state senate election, Testa is up by 3,800 over the incumbent (appointed) Democrat Bob Andrzejczak. Pretty embarrassing for the “Van Drew Team”.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2019, 10:28:49 PM »

Wildstein says 8, 21 and 25 have all stayed R, along with the flips in 1. https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1191917346975354880.

I guess the NJGOP is better than anyone gave them credit for.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2019, 10:30:42 PM »

Wildstein says 8, 21 and 25 have all stayed R, along with the flips in 1. https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1191917346975354880.

I guess the NJGOP is better than anyone gave them credit for.

I'd wait on calling LD8 and LD21 for now. They'll be close
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Cinemark
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2019, 10:32:09 PM »

Stockton really screwed the pooch with their 1st District poll.

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2019-1024-stockton-poll-1st-district-senate-and-assembly.pdf

14 point lead my butt.
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hurricanehink
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2019, 10:59:13 PM »
« Edited: November 05, 2019, 11:03:48 PM by hurricanehink »

100% of precincts in: in LD1, GOP is up by 2,400 votes. In LD2, GOP is up by 800 votes. For the state senate special election, 70% is in, and GOP is up by 3,600 votes.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2019, 11:20:50 PM »

JESUS absolute disaster for NJ democrats

R's flipped NJ 2nd legislative, this is still in south jersey like NJ01 but its not a trump +10 district, its a Clinton+12 district.

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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2019, 11:32:34 PM »

I expect dismal turnout, as always in off-year New Jersey elections, but even more so with the weather forecast. Weirdly, it's rained three years in a row on election day here.

I have no doubt that the legislature will stay majority Democratic in both chambers, I just really don't want my Councilman, Chris DiPiazza, to win a seat in my Assembly district. I actually went to middle school with him, he was kind of an arrogant prick, if I'm being honest. Back then, he gave me a scar on my lip when he idiotically zipped the sweatshirt I was wearing all the way up to my lip, causing it to gush blood to the point of leaving a scar. I didn't cry or resent him for that. I was mostly just confused about why he did that for seemingly no reason. I mean, who even does that?That's not why I don't want him to win though, it's because he's a Republican, and apparently a very ambitious one. My district is usually solidly Democratic, but in an off-year election with low turnout like this, he or the other Republican he is running with could possibly win. They are already winning the lawn sign campaign.
My dad always zips my jackets too far up.

That's your dad though, not another student who you are only slightly acquainted with doing so for no damned reason and now, 17 years later will probably represent you in the Assembly.

That's what off-year New Jersey election turnout gets you...it didn't even end up raining. Weirdly, I have more pride in Kentucky tonight than in my fellow New Jersey voters.
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Cinemark
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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2019, 11:40:47 PM »

I lived in NJ for 20 years and rarely voted in these off year elections. Guess many current New Jerseians have similar experiences.

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Roll Roons
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2019, 11:56:14 PM »

So looks like the GOP will pick up at least 4, if not 6, seats and not lose any of their own. Did ANYONE expect anything close to this?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2019, 11:57:02 PM »
« Edited: November 06, 2019, 12:04:55 AM by Progressive Pessimist »

So looks like the GOP will pick up at least 4, if not 6, seats and not lose any of their own. Did ANYONE expect anything close to this?

I expected a couple losses for the Democrats, but not anywhere near that many.

EDIT: Swain and Tully just pulled ahead again by a few thousand votes with 94% reporting in my district. This has been a good night after all. I take back how I characterized it for me, personally in my previous post in this thread. Though it is without a doubt at least slightly disappointing for the New Jersey Democratic Party as a whole.

And for those of you who enjoyed my previous schadenfreude, the Republicans still managed to pick up a seat on my town council. So there is still some, albeit more minor disappointment from my partisan ass. I can't find any results for the Freeholder race yet.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2019, 06:23:05 AM »

WTF happened here? Why did nobody go out?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2019, 06:34:09 AM »

WTF happened here? Why did nobody go out?

It may just be that NJ Dems hit their high water mark with a big trifecta and Republicans are starting to fight back.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2019, 07:20:54 AM »

Going from a 56-24 to 48-32 majority is insane. NJ Dems need to get their ish together.
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Cinemark
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« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2019, 07:53:52 AM »

Going from a 56-24 to 48-32 majority is insane. NJ Dems need to get their ish together.

Ehh, they're not running the state all that well from what I hear.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2019, 07:57:02 AM »

Going from a 56-24 to 48-32 majority is insane. NJ Dems need to get their ish together.

Ehh, they're not running the state all that well from what I hear.

Nobody ever seems to run New Jersey all that well.  Maybe that's part of the reason why we see swings between the governorship.  
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Cinemark
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« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2019, 08:07:19 AM »

Going from a 56-24 to 48-32 majority is insane. NJ Dems need to get their ish together.

Ehh, they're not running the state all that well from what I hear.

Nobody ever seems to run New Jersey all that well.  Maybe that's part of the reason why we see swings between the governorship.  

Probably.

And I should note, NJ is a blue state. But its not that blue. This giant trifecta they've had the last few years was untenable. There are alot of moderates turned off by Trump, but that doesn't mean they are permanent blue voters on the state level. 
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