Pennsylvania Registration Statistics, 2016-present

[S019]

Pennsylvania is not a tilt R swing state, and insinuating it is, is a pretty bad take, agreed on the other parts of the above post tho

I think Yankee is saying Tilt R in terms of PVI/partisan lean relative to the nation, not necessarily how it votes in an election. Saying PA would tilt R if the NPV was tied is definitely a fair take, and it's probably the accurate one, too.

[Person Man]

Pennsylvania is not a tilt R swing state, and insinuating it is, is a pretty bad take, agreed on the other parts of the above post tho

I think Yankee is saying Tilt R in terms of PVI/partisan lean relative to the nation, not necessarily how it votes in an election. Saying PA would tilt R if the NPV was tied is definitely a fair take, and it's probably the accurate one, too.

Of course this is all happening in isolation. If California starts (albeit more slowly) goes the way of Texas, it might return Pennsylvania to zero PVI. At the rate Pennsylvania is going, it probably will be plurality Republican by the late 2020's.

I wonder how national voter party identification is going. At this point, it looks like Pennsylvania could vote to the right of Arizona and Georgia.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Pennsylvania is not a tilt R swing state, and insinuating it is, is a pretty bad take, agreed on the other parts of the above post tho

I think Yankee is saying Tilt R in terms of PVI/partisan lean relative to the nation, not necessarily how it votes in an election. Saying PA would tilt R if the NPV was tied is definitely a fair take, and it's probably the accurate one, too.

Of course this is all happening in isolation. If California starts (albeit more slowly) goes the way of Texas, it might return Pennsylvania to zero PVI. At the rate Pennsylvania is going, it probably will be plurality Republican by the late 2020's.

I wonder how national voter party identification is going. At this point, it looks like Pennsylvania could vote to the right of Arizona and Georgia.

Several of us have said for years that GA and AZ could end to the left of the rust belt and PA as well.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Another factor that people need to consider about PA is that it is not just Philly that drives Democrats early lead on election night.  A lot of the counties have heavily Democratic towns or cities in them. The example I often cite is Crawford in 2010, how it reported with Sestak in the lead or tied at first and many thought this meant Toomey was doomed, but when it finished, it was 61% Republican.

These towns and cities are collapsing in population, ex mining and manufacturing areas. So while the population of these rural counties is declining, it is not necessarily hitting the Republicans as hard as it might seem at first glance, but in many cases it is the Democrats taking the hit. We also have one of many more examples as to Philly basically plateauing for the Democrats and likewise with Pittsburgh.

This is worse than a simple party registration switch, because the implication is that these people are moving out of the state and is thus a true loss for the Democrats rather than a Demosaur finally catching up to reality (though that certainly is a factor in these places too).

Pennsylvania is not a tilt R swing state, and insinuating it is, is a pretty bad take, agreed on the other parts of the above post tho

I think Yankee is saying Tilt R in terms of PVI/partisan lean relative to the nation, not necessarily how it votes in an election. Saying PA would tilt R if the NPV was tied is definitely a fair take, and it's probably the accurate one, too.

Yes, also the fact that it is R PVI is going to make it so that Republicans continually work to win it because it is easier to flip PA than it is to flip VA/CO and eventually will be likewise for GA/AZ. Pointing to WI and MI also doesn't mean much in this context, because WI and MI on their own cannot get to 270 without GA. This means Republicans not spooking naturally Republican voters in the Pittsburgh suburbs, Lancaster and Bucks county into voting Democratic.

[Annatar]

An update to this thread, as of the 4th of October which is the last date for which we have voter registration data from PA, the democratic lead is down 607,642, over 2 months from the start of August to the start of October, the lead has fallen by around 9,000. It is likely that in the next few months the democratic lead will go below 600,000 as ancestral democrats continue to pass away.

[Non Swing Voter]

This is all a nothing burger.  9,000 in a state as large as PA?  When we all know it's just Dems who haven't voted Dem for years anyways. 

I think we need to stop looking at states based on how they vote relative to the nation.  The "nation" if it were a state would be tilt or lean D.  Dems consistently win the national popular vote by 3-5 points and that's without drumming up huge turnout in states like NY and CA. 

The reality is that SEPA is the fastest growing part of the state and even the GOP exurban counties around that area, which are seeing heavy growth, are only gaining because of Dem transplants.  PA will probably end up like the Dem version of FL, a "swing" state that mostly favors Dems and stabilizes as a Dem +3 state.

[wbrocks67]

Here's an update for ya

PENNSYLVANIA
November 2016: Dems +916,274
November 2017: Dems +808,918
November 2018: Dems +840,443
November 2019: Dems +813,876
February 2020: Dems +791,848
May 2020: Dems +809,164
August 2021: Dems +616,962
May 2024: Dems +389,609

Allegheny
November 2016: Dems +280,366
November 2017: Dems +277,908
November 2018: Dems +284,703
November 2019: Dems +291,626
February 2020: Dems +268,000
May 2020: Dems +271,496
August 2021: Dems +268,065
May 2024: Dems +250,737

Berks
November 2016: Dems +19,435
November 2017: Dems +15,185
November 2018: Dems +15,559
November 2019: Dems +13,437
February 2020: Dems +13,154
May 2020: Dems +13,367
August 2021: Dems +5,511
May 2024: Reps +4,106

Bucks
November 2016: Dems +9,382
November 2017: Dems +6,905
November 2018: Dems +10,361
November 2019: Dems +11,409
February 2020: Dems +13,462
May 2020: Dems +15,449
August 2021: Dems +10,702
May 2024: Dems +1,496

Centre
November 2016: Dems +3,502
November 2017: Dems +1,037
November 2018: Dems +2,383
November 2019: Dems +2,741
February 2020: Dems +3,200
May 2020: Dems +3,617
August 2021: Dems +1,803
May 2024: Dems +1,250

Chester
November 2016: Reps +18,468
November 2017: Reps +17,668
November 2018: Reps +11,300
November 2019: Reps +6,966
February 2020: Reps +3,505
May 2020: Reps +310
August 2021: Dems +4,453
May 2024: Dems +7,224

Dauphin
November 2016: Dems +10,067
November 2017: Dems +7,991
November 2018: Dems +9,786
November 2019: Dems +10,356
February 2020: Dems +11,193
May 2020: Dems +12,068
August 2021: Dems +12,458
May 2024: Dems +11,071

Delco
November 2016: Dems +17,569
November 2017: Dems +16,619
November 2018: Dems +26,637
November 2019: Dems +33,001
February 2020: Dems +37,092
May 2020: Dems +40,191
August 2021: Dems +49,709
May 2024: Dems +57,469

Erie
November 2016: Dems +30,103
November 2017: Dems +29,223
November 2018: Dems +28,559
November 2019: Dems +27,679
May 2024: Dems +11,378

Lackawanna
November 2016: Dems +48,493
November 2017: Dems +44,710
November 2018: Dems +44,357
November 2019: Dems +42,051
February 2020: Dems +41,241
May 2020: Dems +41,058
August 2021: Dems +37,022
May 2024: Dems +29,451

Lehigh
November 2016: Dems +35,122
November 2017: Dems +31,658
November 2018: Dems +33,718
November 2019: Dems +32,983
February 2020: Dems +33,857
May 2020: Dems +34,662
August 2021: Dems +31,888
May 2024: Dems +26,308

Lancaster
November 2016: Reps +66,193
November 2017: Reps +65,694
November 2018: Reps +62,936
November 2019: Reps +60,777
February 2020: Reps +59,742
May 2020: Reps +58,771
August 2021: Reps +64,069
May 2024: Reps +66,443

Luzerne
November 2016: Dems +33,939
November 2017: Dems +32,154
November 2018: Dems +30,022
November 2019: Dems +27,971
May 2024: Dems +2,609

Montgomery
November 2016: Dems +56,510
November 2017: Dems +56,147
November 2018: Dems +67,225
November 2019: Dems +73,194
February 2020: Dems +78,843
May 2020: Dems +83,301
August 2021: Dems +92,522
May 2024: Dems +98,045

Philadelphia
November 2016: Dems +727,534
November 2017: Dems +679,775
November 2018: Dems +699,390
November 2019: Dems +697,876
February 2020: Dems +702,439
May 2020: Dems +706,611
August 2021: Dems +687,816
May 2024: Dems +657,212

[wbrocks67]

A very unsurprising movement if you follow PA's trajectory.

At the baseline level, clear that a lot of ancestral D/Rs are moving but way more R-voting Democrats are continuing to make the move to Ds. Berks County is a good one, that finally made its way into R-registration majority after continuing to move rightward towards Republicans throughout the Trump era.

Ancestral D areas like Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Erie continue to see some movement towards Rs as well with a lot of those R-voting Democrats making it official.

Dauphin/Centre continue to hold steady for Ds.

Montco, Delco and Chester continue to bolster Ds suburban strength. Bucks continues to be very swingy.

Allegheny has lot Ds, but has moved leftward since 2016, so I think that's a good example of Independents also making a difference here - same with Philly, though with Philly it's also some population loss.

Was hoping Ds had some better movement in Lancaster given its slight leftward movement, but looks like Rs are still comfortably ahead there.