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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: VirginiŠ)
  Pennsylvania Registration Statistics, 2016-present
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Author Topic: Pennsylvania Registration Statistics, 2016-present  (Read 630 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: November 04, 2019, 07:00:18 am »
« edited: November 04, 2019, 07:10:41 am by wbrocks67 »

Feel free to move this wherever else, but it's interesting for trends.

PENNSYLVANIA
November 2016: Dems +916,274
November 2017: Dems +808,918
November 2018: Dems +840,443
November 2019: Dems +813,876

Allegheny (Clinton +16.4, Casey +33.1)
November 2016: Dems +280,366
November 2017: Dems +277,908
November 2018: Dems +284,703
November 2019: Dems +291,626

Berks (Trump +9.9, Casey +3.8 )
November 2016: Dems +19,435
November 2017: Dems +15,185
November 2018: Dems +15,559
November 2019: Dems +13,437

Bucks (Clinton +0.8, Casey +14.0)
November 2016: Dems +9,382
November 2017: Dems +6,905
November 2018: Dems +10,361
November 2019: Dems +11,409

Centre (Clinton +2.4, Casey +17.2)
November 2016: Dems +3,502
November 2017: Dems +1,037
November 2018: Dems +2,383
November 2019: Dems +2,741

Chester (Clinton +9.4, Casey +20.2)
November 2016: Reps +18,468
November 2017: Reps +17,668
November 2018: Reps +11,300
November 2019: Reps +6,966

Dauphin (Clinton +2.9, Casey +11.4)
November 2016: Dems +10,067
November 2017: Dems +7,991
November 2018: Dems +9,786
November 2019: Dems +10,356

Delco (Clinton +22.3, Casey +31.4)
November 2016: Dems +17,569
November 2017: Dems +16,619
November 2018: Dems +26,637
November 2019: Dems +33,001

Erie (Trump +1.6, Casey +18.4)
November 2016: Dems +30,103
November 2017: Dems +29,223
November 2018: Dems +28,559
November 2019: Dems +27,679

Lackawanna (Clinton +3.5, Casey +23.2)
November 2016: Dems +48,493
November 2017: Dems +44,710
November 2018: Dems +44,357
November 2019: Dems +42,051

Lehigh (Clinton +4.7, Casey +16.4)
November 2016: Dems +35,122
November 2017: Dems +31,658
November 2018: Dems +33,718
November 2019: Dems +32,983

Lancaster (Trump +19.1, Barletta +8.4)
November 2016: Reps +66,193
November 2017: Reps +65,694
November 2018: Reps +62,936
November 2019: Reps +60,777

Luzerne (Trump +19.3, Barletta +8.2)
November 2016: Dems +33,939
November 2017: Dems +32,154
November 2018: Dems +30,022
November 2019: Dems +27,971

Montgomery (Clinton +21.3, Casey +31.9)
November 2016: Dems +56,510
November 2017: Dems +56,147
November 2018: Dems +67,225
November 2019: Dems +73,194

Philadelphia (Clinton +67.0, Casey +74.8 )
November 2016: Dems +727,534
November 2017: Dems +679,775
November 2018: Dems +699,390
November 2019: Dems +697,876
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redeagleofficial
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2019, 09:54:16 am »

YES, PA is trending red in my opinion, and I do believe Trump will win it by about 100K votes in 2020.  However, I take these registration numbers with a grain of salt.  Arizona and Nevada have seen more Republicans register, yet studies do show that republicans change their registrations more often when they move when you are a year out from an election.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2019, 09:59:11 am »

Isn't Pennsylvania one of those states where there are tons of conservadems that are registered D but vote R? Looking at the county numbers cited here that seems to be driving the change.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2019, 03:23:37 pm »

Isn't Pennsylvania one of those states where there are tons of conservadems that are registered D but vote R? Looking at the county numbers cited here that seems to be driving the change.

In counties like Luzerne, yeah, that's pretty much where it's headed.

What I thought was interesting though is that Dems are slowly leaking in these counties, but Reps are REALLY leaking in the suburban counties. Reallly shows the Trump-era shift.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2020, 06:59:26 am »

Bit of an update... and this is not including Indies, just the difference between Registered Ds and Rs

STATEWIDE
November 2019: Dems +813,876
February 2020: Dems +791,848

ALLEGHENY
November 2019: Dems +291,626
February 2020: Dems +268,000

BERKS
November 2019: Dems +13,437
February 2020: Dems +13,154

BUCKS
November 2019: Dems +11,409
February 2020: Dems +13,462

CENTRE
November 2019: Dems +2,741
February 2020: Dems +3,200

CHESTER
November 2019: Reps +6,966
February 2020: Reps +3,505

DAUPHIN
November 2019: Dems +10,356
February 2020: Dems +11,193

DELCO
November 2019: Dems +33,001
February 2020: Dems +37,092

LACKAWANNA
November 2019: Dems +42,051
February 2020: Dems +41,241

LEHIGH
November 2019: Dems +32,983
February 2020: Dems +33,857

LANCASTER
November 2019: Reps +60,777
February 2020: Reps +59,742

MONTGOMERY
November 2020: Dems +73,194
February 2020: Dems +78,843

PHILADELPHIA
November 2020: Dems +697,876
February 2020: Dems +702,439

Not sure what happened in Allegheny since November, but interesting and not surprising that the leftward shift dramatically continues in places like Montgomery and Delaware, and Chester will finally be in the hands of Ds soon, after having an R+19,000 advantage in 2016.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #5 on: February 28, 2020, 02:45:28 pm »

Bit of an update... and this is not including Indies, just the difference between Registered Ds and Rs

STATEWIDE
November 2019: Dems +813,876
February 2020: Dems +791,848

ALLEGHENY
November 2019: Dems +291,626
February 2020: Dems +268,000

BERKS
November 2019: Dems +13,437
February 2020: Dems +13,154

BUCKS
November 2019: Dems +11,409
February 2020: Dems +13,462

CENTRE
November 2019: Dems +2,741
February 2020: Dems +3,200

CHESTER
November 2019: Reps +6,966
February 2020: Reps +3,505

DAUPHIN
November 2019: Dems +10,356
February 2020: Dems +11,193

DELCO
November 2019: Dems +33,001
February 2020: Dems +37,092

LACKAWANNA
November 2019: Dems +42,051
February 2020: Dems +41,241

LEHIGH
November 2019: Dems +32,983
February 2020: Dems +33,857

LANCASTER
November 2019: Reps +60,777
February 2020: Reps +59,742

MONTGOMERY
November 2020: Dems +73,194
February 2020: Dems +78,843

PHILADELPHIA
November 2020: Dems +697,876
February 2020: Dems +702,439

Not sure what happened in Allegheny since November, but interesting and not surprising that the leftward shift dramatically continues in places like Montgomery and Delaware, and Chester will finally be in the hands of Ds soon, after having an R+19,000 advantage in 2016.

Any reason why R gains in Lackawanna are so slow ? Especially when compared to luzerne ?
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538Electoral
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« Reply #6 on: February 28, 2020, 02:47:13 pm »

Interesting.
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AGA
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« Reply #7 on: February 28, 2020, 03:00:51 pm »

Where can one find this data?
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #8 on: February 29, 2020, 10:57:48 am »

Bit of an update... and this is not including Indies, just the difference between Registered Ds and Rs

STATEWIDE
November 2019: Dems +813,876
February 2020: Dems +791,848

ALLEGHENY
November 2019: Dems +291,626
February 2020: Dems +268,000

BERKS
November 2019: Dems +13,437
February 2020: Dems +13,154

BUCKS
November 2019: Dems +11,409
February 2020: Dems +13,462

CENTRE
November 2019: Dems +2,741
February 2020: Dems +3,200

CHESTER
November 2019: Reps +6,966
February 2020: Reps +3,505

DAUPHIN
November 2019: Dems +10,356
February 2020: Dems +11,193

DELCO
November 2019: Dems +33,001
February 2020: Dems +37,092

LACKAWANNA
November 2019: Dems +42,051
February 2020: Dems +41,241

LEHIGH
November 2019: Dems +32,983
February 2020: Dems +33,857

LANCASTER
November 2019: Reps +60,777
February 2020: Reps +59,742

MONTGOMERY
November 2020: Dems +73,194
February 2020: Dems +78,843

PHILADELPHIA
November 2020: Dems +697,876
February 2020: Dems +702,439

Not sure what happened in Allegheny since November, but interesting and not surprising that the leftward shift dramatically continues in places like Montgomery and Delaware, and Chester will finally be in the hands of Ds soon, after having an R+19,000 advantage in 2016.

Any reason why R gains in Lackawanna are so slow ? Especially when compared to luzerne ?

Probably that Luzerne doesn't have a city comparable to Scranton
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: February 29, 2020, 12:42:28 pm »


Our SOS, whoever that is (not a position you can run for in an election, apparently) does a good job at keeping the stats up to date each week-

https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections/OtherServicesEvents/VotingElectionStatistics/pages/votingelectionstatistics.aspx
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: February 29, 2020, 01:59:25 pm »

Isn't Pennsylvania one of those states where there are tons of conservadems that are registered D but vote R? Looking at the county numbers cited here that seems to be driving the change.

Yeah, party registration is a strong trailing indicator.
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Cyrusman
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« Reply #11 on: March 05, 2020, 11:31:54 pm »

Then why donít more people on here consider Pennsylvania a tossup?
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