NYT/Siena Polls of 6 Battleground States

[Walmart_shopper]

Not surprised to see Warren getting dumpstered.

Why would anyone be surprised?  She has little appeal outside the Democratic base.  Won’t win next year.

And given Donald Trump's incredibly expansive, bipartisan base, obviously Trump will win 400 EVs against her.

[Walmart_shopper]

Gore? Michelle Obama? Karl Dean? We need backups.

Or, you know, a polling attention span of more than six hours. These numbers are largely incongruous with not only national polling bit also almost all other state polling in these states. Siena may be a fine pollster, but an outlier is still, alas, an outlier.

[Walmart_shopper]

Interesting:

Will vote for Trump/will vote for the Dem nominee in 2020:

Wisconsin: 40/46%
Pennsylvania: 41/45%
Florida: 39/43%
Arizona: 41/44%
Michigan: 38/41%
Iowa: 41/43%
NC: 44/45%

Right now it is clear Trump is doing better in MI than PA and WI slightly.

No it's not. Virtually all Michigan polling over the last two years showed him cratering in Michigan, but less so in Wisconsin. And the 2018 results largely tracked this. A GOP president with national approval in the low 40s doesn't win Michigan. Maybe he wins Wisconsin, but not Michigan.

[Walmart_shopper]

So there could be a decent amount of Clinton-Trump voters in the Midwest? Who are these people? Clinton was an abysmal candidate for the Midwest, hardly campaigned in Michigan and Wisconsin, and lost them by less than 1%. The Democratic nominee will heavily target these states in 2020, and likely won't be as unpopular as Clinton. How could Trump realistically expand his margin there?

The inverse is more true, that Obama-Trump voters arguably tipped the Rust Belt to Trump. They came back to the Dems in 2018. There is zero evidence of Trump expanding his base with new voters or Obama-Trump-Dem2018 voters once again returning to Trump en masse (one of which Trump needs to win MI/PA/WI again). In fact, it seems quite clear--the Siena outlier aside--that the Obama-Trump voters took a shot on Trump the Outsider and do not at all feel compelled to make that choice again, and they will either stay home or come home to the Dems.