NYT/Siena Polls of 6 Battleground States

[krb08]

Interesting:

Will vote for Trump/will vote for the Dem nominee in 2020:

Wisconsin: 40/46%
Pennsylvania: 41/45%
Florida: 39/43%
Arizona: 41/44%
Michigan: 38/41%
Iowa: 41/43%
NC: 44/45%

That's from this set of polls? Interesting, especially FL/IA/NC

[krb08]

Obviously these polls are good for Trump. What I don't get, though, is Biden in a tie w/ Trump in MI but ahead in FL? MOE and everything, but I don't see a scenario where FL is blue and MI isn't.

Based on Cohn's comments about their trouble polling MI I think their poll there should be taken with a grain of salt. The others are likely accurate though.

[krb08]

So there could be a decent amount of Clinton-Trump voters in the Midwest? Who are these people? Clinton was an abysmal candidate for the Midwest, hardly campaigned in Michigan and Wisconsin, and lost them by less than 1%. The Democratic nominee will heavily target these states in 2020, and likely won't be as unpopular as Clinton. How could Trump realistically expand his margin there?