Beet
Atlas Star
Posts: 28,914
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« on: November 04, 2019, 10:14:44 AM » |
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To be a bit contrarian, I don't think an incumbent doing in the mid-40s against a few people who have not even unified their own party is all that great for him. The Dem numbers in this poll are basically irrelevant, all that matters is that Trump is within the same 1-2 points against all of them. Again, the candidates with the most name recognition among the Dems will benefit the most. The difference there is with the Hispanic and "Other" vote, who are the most marginalized and also the group undersampled by Siena in 2018.
That may explain some of their misses in House races too: In Texas, they had Gina Ortiz Jones down by 9 and she ended up losing by 0.5; they had Lizzie Fletcher down by 1 and 3, and she ended up winning by 5.
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