These numbers are weird, to say at least. Only FL and NC seem about accurate. But MI to the right of AZ and FL? Nah, not happening.
I might add that I don't buy the MI/WI/PA numbers showing Dems ahead by double digits for a minute. These polls here may overestimate Trump like him leading Warren by 6 in MI, but overall closer than Emerson's recent MI GE poll numbers.
Trump isn't "likely" to win all 3 again. There's a remote chance it happens again, and if he's reelected, at least one of these states will go for him. WI is the most likely one, with PA and MI following, respectively.
There is no evidence that Trump is favored in these battlegrounds. It's not like GA, where Dems fell (narrowly) short in the midterms. I'm not saying it's impossible he wins 1,2 or 3 of these states, but neither polling nor election results since 2016 support the narrative of "Trump is favored". I'm not buying the double digit polling leads for Dems either, but if Trump is stuck at around 40% as sitting prez and has approvals underwater, I'd be worried if I was on his campaign.
