NYT/Siena Polls of 6 Battleground States (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 29, 2024, 01:27:08 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  NYT/Siena Polls of 6 Battleground States (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: NYT/Siena Polls of 6 Battleground States  (Read 13675 times)
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,581
Venezuela


« on: November 04, 2019, 06:45:29 AM »
« edited: November 04, 2019, 06:48:43 AM by Skye »







Quote
The Times/Siena poll of 3,766 registered voters was conducted from Oct. 13 to Oct. 26. The margin of sampling error for an individual state poll is plus or minus 4.4, except for Michigan at plus or minus 5.1 points. Together, the battleground sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.

Also, I found this to be interesting:

Quote
The Biden voters who say Ms. Warren is too far to the left are relatively well educated and disproportionately reside in precincts that flipped from Mitt Romney in 2012 to Mrs. Clinton four years later. They oppose single-payer health care or free college, and they support the Republicans’ 2017 tax law. They are not natural Democratic voters: 41 percent consider themselves conservative; 20 percent say they’re Republican; 33 percent supported Mr. Trump or Mr. Johnson in 2016.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,581
Venezuela


« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2019, 07:25:47 AM »

Cohn uploaded the crosstabs here: https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019

Overall (6 states):
Biden 46
Trump 45

Trump 46
Warren 44

Trump 45
Sanders 45

AZ:
Biden 50
Trump 45

Warren 47
Trump 45

Trump 47
Sanders 46

FL:
Biden 46
Trump 44

Trump 45
Warren 41

Trump 45
Sanders 44

MI:
Trump 45
Biden 44

Trump 46
Warren 39

Sanders 45
Trump 43

NC:
Trump 48
Biden 46

Trump 47
Warren 44

Trump 48
Sanders 45

PA:
Biden 47
Trump 44

Trump 45
Warren 44

Sanders 45
Trump 44

WI:
Biden 47
Trump 43

Warren 46
Trump 46

Sanders 47
Trump 45

IA (not part of this poll):
Trump 45
Biden 44

Trump 47
Warren 40

Trump 47
Sanders 43

Trump 45
Buttigieg 41

Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,581
Venezuela


« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2019, 07:45:11 AM »

Fun tidbits I found:

AZ: Phoenix: Biden 58-Trump 35. IIRC the city vote was Clinton 54-Trump 39.

FL: Miami-Dade is Biden 61-Trump 32. Warren 52-Trump 32. Overall, Hispanics break 56-36 to Biden, and 46-38 to Warren. Maybe that explains the disparity in Dade.

WI: "Milwaukee suburbs" (who knows if it's just Milwaukee county excluding the city, or if it also includes the WOW counties): Trump wins: 47/45 against Biden, 49/42 against Warren, and 51/42 against Sanders. Dane county: Biden up 64/25, Warren up 60/30 (lol), Sanders up 64/29.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,581
Venezuela


« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2019, 08:30:14 AM »

Its really important to note that Trump is only at about 45% except in NC, where he's at 47%, and IA, where they had a small sample and had Trump at 45-47%. We are a year out as well, so dont start freaking out or cheering because of this poll.

No, Iowa was polled separately, and the sample is from 1400 RV, which certainly isn't small lol.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,581
Venezuela


« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2019, 10:17:27 AM »

Stop creating your own fairy tale about what I actually said. This board is insufferable.


Dude, read your post again. It reads like an OC post, seriously.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.028 seconds with 12 queries.