NYT/Siena Polls of 6 Battleground States (user search)
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  NYT/Siena Polls of 6 Battleground States (search mode)
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Author Topic: NYT/Siena Polls of 6 Battleground States  (Read 13476 times)
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
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Posts: 24,075


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

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« on: November 04, 2019, 03:01:18 PM »

I still think Warren is a much weaker candidate than many realize. She has really no appeal outside of her base, and her policy ideas are not something that will play well with those not on the far left. These are the polls you have to pay attention to for the election. Nationwide polls should be ignored because it is unlikely that Trump wins the popular vote in any circumstance.

This election is far from a slam dunk to get Trump out of office.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,075


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

P P
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2019, 03:25:54 PM »

Again, it's certainly possible that Warren can beat Trump.  But that sure looks like a shakier proposition than Biden beating Trump.  Every Democrat out there needs to ask themselves: would I rather lose with Warren or win with Biden?  Of course neither of those outcomes is a given, but right now it sure looks like Biden is more likely than not to beat Trump, while Warren is IMO a 50-50 bet.

Lose with Warren, get a Dem landslide in 2022 and impeach Trump after taking the Senate.

Taking the Senate isn't enough; you need 67 votes to convict and remove Trump.  But even if you manage that, Trump would still have had at least two more years to inflict further damage on the country.  And even then you're left with Pence (or whoever replaces him on the ticket) as President. 

Would you REALLY prefer four more years of Trump or Trump/Pence to four years of Biden?  Wouldn't you rather have Trump out in January 2021? 

Right. All of these scenarios are up in the air. I personally fear a President Pence over a President Trump because Pence is more shrewd and probably more dangerous than Trump. The country seems to be humming along despite Trump's incompetence. Pence could really do some damage.

I think Trump would be thrilled with a Warren nomination and it would probably be his best bet to stay in the White House.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,075


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

P P
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2019, 05:19:21 PM »

I still think Warren is a much weaker candidate than many realize. She has really no appeal outside of her base, and her policy ideas are not something that will play well with those not on the far left. These are the polls you have to pay attention to for the election. Nationwide polls should be ignored because it is unlikely that Trump wins the popular vote in any circumstance.

This election is far from a slam dunk to get Trump out of office.

She is weak, plus she has bad instincts as well. Rolling out a comprehensive Medicare 4 all plan was beyond dumb. She pretty much sunk any momentum she had and is taking shots from both the right and her own party.

She was forced into releasing it by her opponents, but there was no way it was going to come out well. To avoid middle-class tax hikes, she had to overcompensate by putting on a lot of these unconstitutional taxes and payments, which will be challenged and likely defeated in the court system. She also hast his rosy view that she can close all loopholes so the rich will not be able to avoid taxes.

I still don't see Medicare for all as a realistic policy proposal when it includes extinguishing the private and employer provided insurance industry. What is realistic is including a public option within Obamacare and expanding medicaid in all 50 states.

I, for one, like my health insurance plan and have no interest in trading it in for a government plan.
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