Think Bob Ney is Outta Here?

[Galactic Overlord]

The recent guilty plea and cooperation by Jack Abramoff can't be good news for Ney.  If he sings, think Ney will resign?  Or get beaten in a primary?  Perhaps a Democrat will defeat him for re-election? 

Personally, I'm thinking this guy may be done for...if the rumors are correct.

[Smash255]

Ney is in DEEEEPPPPPP.

He seems very aarogant about the whole thing.  I'm not too sure about a primary loss either because  the GOP may want to hold off on a Primary by taking up the spin game no matter how bad the Abramoff case gets.  Regardless Ney will not be representing Congress in a year.  He will lose in the General if he runs, I would say only way he doesn't lose in a race, is if their is no race for him because he is in jail.  He's done for.

[TheresNoMoney]

Ney will be the first congressman to go.

[MarkWarner08]

Ohio gerrymandering shored him up with a conservative seat.

[Alcon]

Ohio gerrymandering shored him up with a conservative seat.

Yeah - his seat went from moderately conservative to fairly solidly.

[Galactic Overlord]

True, but a safe seat is no guarantee. Remember Dan Rostenkowski? (His seat was regained by a Democrat two years later, but the point is he still got beat by a Republican).

[TheresNoMoney]

Hey will be forced to resign before the 2006 elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

if Ney doesn't resign he'll have a lot of trouble getting re-elected methinks...
His district isn't especially conservative either; it's a hell of a lot safer than his old district, where there was always the lurking fear of a sudden defeat (and if that district was still around there'd be no question of him getting the boot; the only question would be whether or not his opponent could crack 60% or not) and where his intial election was a bit of a fluke anyway.
His current district is actually quite mixed; while there are a couple of solidly conservative cornbelt counties in it's western fringes, the right sort of Democrat (read: socially moderate at the very least) can poll well in most of the rest of the district. Bush took about 57% there in 2004; a solid number for sure, but nothing special, especially for a small town/rural district in Ohio. Economically parts of the district have been doing extremely badly of late.

[socaldem]

if Ney doesn't resign he'll have a lot of trouble getting re-elected methinks...
His district isn't especially conservative either; it's a hell of a lot safer than his old district, where there was always the lurking fear of a sudden defeat (and if that district was still around there'd be no question of him getting the boot; the only question would be whether or not his opponent could crack 60% or not) and where his intial election was a bit of a fluke anyway.
His current district is actually quite mixed; while there are a couple of solidly conservative cornbelt counties in it's western fringes, the right sort of Democrat (read: socially moderate at the very least) can poll well in most of the rest of the district. Bush took about 57% there in 2004; a solid number for sure, but nothing special, especially for a small town/rural district in Ohio. Economically parts of the district have been doing extremely badly of late.

Also, I can't help but think that all of those reliable Republicans in the Amish counties might be a bit outraged by Ney's fondness for gambling!

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

if Ney doesn't resign he'll have a lot of trouble getting re-elected methinks...
His district isn't especially conservative either; it's a hell of a lot safer than his old district, where there was always the lurking fear of a sudden defeat (and if that district was still around there'd be no question of him getting the boot; the only question would be whether or not his opponent could crack 60% or not) and where his intial election was a bit of a fluke anyway.
His current district is actually quite mixed; while there are a couple of solidly conservative cornbelt counties in it's western fringes, the right sort of Democrat (read: socially moderate at the very least) can poll well in most of the rest of the district. Bush took about 57% there in 2004; a solid number for sure, but nothing special, especially for a small town/rural district in Ohio. Economically parts of the district have been doing extremely badly of late.

Also, I can't help but think that all of those reliable Republicans in the Amish counties might be a bit outraged by Ney's fondness for gambling!

Do they even vote?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do they even vote?

Oh yes. There's a reason why Holmes county is overwhelmingly Republican.

[WalterMitty]

if Ney doesn't resign he'll have a lot of trouble getting re-elected methinks...
His district isn't especially conservative either; it's a hell of a lot safer than his old district, where there was always the lurking fear of a sudden defeat (and if that district was still around there'd be no question of him getting the boot; the only question would be whether or not his opponent could crack 60% or not) and where his intial election was a bit of a fluke anyway.
His current district is actually quite mixed; while there are a couple of solidly conservative cornbelt counties in it's western fringes, the right sort of Democrat (read: socially moderate at the very least) can poll well in most of the rest of the district. Bush took about 57% there in 2004; a solid number for sure, but nothing special, especially for a small town/rural district in Ohio. Economically parts of the district have been doing extremely badly of late.

Also, I can't help but think that all of those reliable Republicans in the Amish counties might be a bit outraged by Ney's fondness for gambling!

if  he is an avid gambler, that makes him a freedom fighter in my book!

ney 06!

[tarheel-leftist85]

It's Ohio:  Expect the Republicans to retain the Gov.'s mansion, Senate seat, and if any house seats change, it'll be to the favor of Republicans.  Not to be mean, but it's going to continue to be Schmidt country.  The Democratic party shouldn't be placing their eggs in this basket.  FDR barely carried the place in 1932.  I know the upper South isn't glamorous to Democrats nowadays, but they'd be surprised to see what happend if they tried here as much as they do in Ohio. 

In closing, Ney will stay.

[Gustaf]

Ohio has experienced some swings back and forth. Don't forget that Truman carried Ohio in 1948, despite the fact that it was Dewey's home state. And Carter won it in 1976 as well. I also read in The Economist that Ohio was quite Democratic on the state level in the 80s.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Ohio has experienced some swings back and forth. Don't forget that Truman carried Ohio in 1948, despite the fact that it was Dewey's home state. And Carter won it in 1976 as well. I also read in The Economist that Ohio was quite Democratic on the state level in the 80s.

How do you get that? Dewey was governor of NY, and was born in Michigan.

[Gustaf]

Ohio has experienced some swings back and forth. Don't forget that Truman carried Ohio in 1948, despite the fact that it was Dewey's home state. And Carter won it in 1976 as well. I also read in The Economist that Ohio was quite Democratic on the state level in the 80s.

How do you get that? Dewey was governor of NY, and was born in Michigan.

Are you sure? In that case, I recall wrongly...now that you say it, it does ring a bell...

[tarheel-leftist85]

When was the last time excl. 1964 that a Dem. got a majority of the vote in OH.

[Gustaf]

When was the last time excl. 1964 that a Dem. got a majority of the vote in OH.

1940, Roosvelt winning 52% of the vote. But it's gone Dem plenty of times since then, but with a plurality. In 1936 FDR won it by 20 points though.

[Galactic Overlord]

It's Ohio:  Expect the Republicans to retain the Gov.'s mansion, Senate seat, and if any house seats change, it'll be to the favor of Republicans.  Not to be mean, but it's going to continue to be Schmidt country.  The Democratic party shouldn't be placing their eggs in this basket.  FDR barely carried the place in 1932.  I know the upper South isn't glamorous to Democrats nowadays, but they'd be surprised to see what happend if they tried here as much as they do in Ohio. 

In closing, Ney will stay.

Yeah, but it really wouldn't be smart for the Democrats to not make a real go at Ohio.  It's an important prize.  But it is tough.  Unlike much of the south, many of Ohio's rural areas do not have an ancestrally Democratic tradition, which is why some rural counties in the south swing back to the Democrats in local races.   Also, Southwest Ohio is growing much faster than the rest of the state, is casting a greater percentage of the vote, and is heavily Republican.  Northwest Ohio, the Youngstown area and such, is not growing much at all. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's Ohio:  Expect the Republicans to retain the Gov.'s mansion, Senate seat, and if any house seats change, it'll be to the favor of Republicans.  Not to be mean, but it's going to continue to be Schmidt country.  The Democratic party shouldn't be placing their eggs in this basket.  FDR barely carried the place in 1932.  I know the upper South isn't glamorous to Democrats nowadays, but they'd be surprised to see what happend if they tried here as much as they do in Ohio. 

In closing, Ney will stay.

Yeah, but it really wouldn't be smart for the Democrats to not make a real go at Ohio.  It's an important prize.  But it is tough.  Unlike much of the south, many of Ohio's rural areas do not have an ancestrally Democratic tradition, which is why some rural counties in the south swing back to the Democrats in local races.   Also, Southwest Ohio is growing much faster than the rest of the state, is casting a greater percentage of the vote, and is heavily Republican.  Northwest Ohio, the Youngstown area and such, is not growing much at all. 

The Democrats should clearly make a strong campaign in Ohio against corruption and the crappy economy. Maybe one day, Ohio will learn to ditch its Republican bonds, and tell Governor Taft the 37th to get lost.

[tarheel-leftist85]

When 2012 rolls around, we'll regret forgetting FL (especially), TN, AR, VA, WV, and NC.  The other insecure South we'll have no chance at (they have to vote Republican, don the Stars and Bars, etc. to feel like Southerners).  The southwest is not growing fast enough to compensate for the loses we'll sustain in Kerry states plus Ohio.  Not to mention, we are on our last straw with Pennsylvania.  Maybe the state is pro-choice according to most polls, but if a referendum were held, the state would outlaw said practice provided the opportunity (pro-lifers in the state are definitely more active and will be a force to reckon with as time goes on).  As Democrats we need to remember that it's economics that distinguishes the parties, not social wedge issues or even foreign policy.  If you get the House Republicans together, they won't be able to agree on anything except economic policy.  For this reason, I believe we should put less stock into Ohio (at all levels).  They really are a libertarian state (like South Carolina) no matter how much they gloss over it with county fairs or churches.  BTW, I don't have any problems with those who are libertarians, so long as they are proud of it (everyone should be proud of where they stand...which is why I can no longer support my party on it's newfounded libertarianism--but only work to reverse it).  Democrats need to remember what really distinguishes (or at least is supposed to distinguish) Democrats from Republicans.  Look at Ron Paul, Chuck Hagel, Arlen Specter, Lincoln Chafee, Rudy Giuliani, and Arnold.  They all agree with Bush and each other on one set of issues.  My party fails to recognize this.  But I digress.  Ney will stay.  Flip-flop DeWine will stay (so will cry-baby Voinovich when he's up).  I see Ohio trending in the exact direction of Kansas (large social-conservative/economically-aggrieved base, but "Mods" control the strings).

[GOP = Terrorists]

In closing, Ney will stay.

That would be a horrible bet. =)

[memphis]

When 2012 rolls around, we'll regret forgetting FL (especially), TN, AR, VA, WV, and NC.  The other insecure South we'll have no chance at (they have to vote Republican, don the Stars and Bars, etc. to feel like Southerners).  The southwest is not growing fast enough to compensate for the loses we'll sustain in Kerry states plus Ohio.  Not to mention, we are on our last straw with Pennsylvania.  Maybe the state is pro-choice according to most polls, but if a referendum were held, the state would outlaw said practice provided the opportunity (pro-lifers in the state are definitely more active and will be a force to reckon with as time goes on).  As Democrats we need to remember that it's economics that distinguishes the parties, not social wedge issues or even foreign policy.  If you get the House Republicans together, they won't be able to agree on anything except economic policy.  For this reason, I believe we should put less stock into Ohio (at all levels).  They really are a libertarian state (like South Carolina) no matter how much they gloss over it with county fairs or churches.  BTW, I don't have any problems with those who are libertarians, so long as they are proud of it (everyone should be proud of where they stand...which is why I can no longer support my party on it's newfounded libertarianism--but only work to reverse it).  Democrats need to remember what really distinguishes (or at least is supposed to distinguish) Democrats from Republicans.  Look at Ron Paul, Chuck Hagel, Arlen Specter, Lincoln Chafee, Rudy Giuliani, and Arnold.  They all agree with Bush and each other on one set of issues.  My party fails to recognize this.  But I digress.  Ney will stay.  Flip-flop DeWine will stay (so will cry-baby Voinovich when he's up).  I see Ohio trending in the exact direction of Kansas (large social-conservative/economically-aggrieved base, but "Mods" control the strings).

Ohio is not going the way of Kansas because it is a much more urban state.  Dems get large numbers of votes in Cleveland, Toledo, Columbus, Akron, Youngstown, and break even in Dayton and Canton. Granted, Cincy is a problem. People in Ohio are dealing with coin-gate, closing factories, and now Bob Ney. Dems will win Ohio in 2008 so long as we can prevent a Ralph Nader type jerk. As long as the Reps nominate social conservatives, they will continue to lose everything northeast of the Potomac, including Pennsylvania .

[jimrtex]

Do they even vote?

Oh yes. There's a reason why Holmes county is overwhelmingly Republican.

In terms of votes cast per capita, Holmes County is an extreme outlier.  Statewide, roughly 50% of Ohioans voted, in Holmes County, it is around 25%.  A few high growth suburban counties (e.g Delaware and Warren) are above 50%, but this is mainly a reflection of the 2000 census population no longer being relevant, rather than higher participation rates.