Rate VA Senate

[538Electoral]

I feel better about our chances in the VA Senate, Still rate it Lean D for now.

[ON Progressive]

Literally all the Dem-held seats in the Senate are Safe D, and the Democrats need to only flip two seats.

Just by going by 2016 Presidential results, all that's needed is winning SD-10 (Clinton +10) and SD-13 (Clinton +6). That's not even getting into SD-12 (Clinton +2) or SD-07 (roughly tied, but Northam won it by 9).

Meanwhile, literally all the Democratic held seats are solidly Democratic (in fact, over half the VA Senate Dems aren't even being contested).

This is Safe D, and will flip even if the House somehow doesn't (and it will).

[MT Treasurer]

Safe D of course. Never underestimate the visceral hatred of anything associated with an (R) which Virginians harbor in their souls.

This is Safe D, and will flip even if the House somehow doesn't (and it will).

In the "Rate Virginia" thread on the 2020 board he said this...

Toss-up. Won't call a winner.

...which tells you all you need to know.

[538Electoral]

Literally all the Dem-held seats in the Senate are Safe D, and the Democrats need to only flip two seats.

Just by going by 2016 Presidential results, all that's needed is winning SD-10 (Clinton +10) and SD-13 (Clinton +6). That's not even getting into SD-12 (Clinton +2) or SD-07 (roughly tied, but Northam won it by 9).

Meanwhile, literally all the Democratic held seats are solidly Democratic (in fact, over half the VA Senate Dems aren't even being contested).

This is Safe D, and will flip even if the House somehow doesn't (and it will).

A 23-17 majority Safe D?

[😥]

Safe D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D

[Woody]

Toss up.

[Pericles]

Literally all the Dem-held seats in the Senate are Safe D, and the Democrats need to only flip two seats.

Just by going by 2016 Presidential results, all that's needed is winning SD-10 (Clinton +10) and SD-13 (Clinton +6). That's not even getting into SD-12 (Clinton +2) or SD-07 (roughly tied, but Northam won it by 9).

Meanwhile, literally all the Democratic held seats are solidly Democratic (in fact, over half the VA Senate Dems aren't even being contested).

This is Safe D, and will flip even if the House somehow doesn't (and it will).

A 23-17 majority Safe D?

Race assessments are supposed to be based on the range of plausible potential scenarios not just the apparent closeness of the margin. There are no plausible scenarios in which Democrats do not gain a trifecta in Virginia. This is also why Hillary Clinton was more vulnerable than Obama even though her poll lead was larger than his in 2012.

[Frenchrepublican]

Safe D. Democrats will probably end up with a 23/17 seats Senate majority

[windjammer]

Safe D.
They just need one seat and there is a Clinton +11 republican state senate seat.

[Xing]

Safe D, of course.

[Fuzzy Bear]

With the antics of Northam, Fairfax, and Herring, nothing is in the bag until it's in the bag.  This should have been an easy win, and I predict that whatever happens here will cause VA Dems more nervousness than had it's statewide officials not provided the Follies last year.

[Nyvin]

Safe D,  there's just no opening for Republicans here.

I'd expect there's 23 or 24 Dem seats in the end.

10 and 13 are practically guaranteed to flip.   7 and 12 are pretty vulnerable.

That bring it to 23, from there it's a question of if there's a surprise win somewhere in the less competitive (but still swingy) R districts.

[BP🌹]

This guy once had ME-01 going for Trump.

[MT Treasurer]

With the antics of Northam, Fairfax, and Herring, nothing is in the bag until it's in the bag.  This should have been an easy win, and I predict that whatever happens here will cause VA Dems more nervousness than had it's statewide officials not provided the Follies last year.

I’m sure VA Dems are quaking in their boots right now. How could a poster who thinks VA-PRES 2020 is a Tossup possibly get it wrong, after all?

Thoughts on Mark Warner's and Jennifer Wexton's odds, while you’re at it?

[ElectionsGuy]

Safe D. Even if Dems underperform, their worst possible result will still result in taking the majority.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Toss up.

As I've said, kink.

Safe D, this is gonna be so good haha.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1191218806468820994

LMAO, Trump throwing his weight behind a republican in an open senate district in Loudoun county that he lost by 8

I'm literally dying rn XD

[Woody]

Safe D of course. Never underestimate the visceral hatred of anything associated with an (R) which Virginians harbor in their souls.

This is Safe D, and will flip even if the House somehow doesn't (and it will).

In the "Rate Virginia" thread on the 2020 board he said this...

Toss-up. Won't call a winner.

...which tells you all you need to know.

The senate ended up being decided by around 6000 votes, that was hardly safe D.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Safe D of course. Never underestimate the visceral hatred of anything associated with an (R) which Virginians harbor in their souls.

This is Safe D, and will flip even if the House somehow doesn't (and it will).

In the "Rate Virginia" thread on the 2020 board he said this...

Toss-up. Won't call a winner.

...which tells you all you need to know.

The senate ended up being decided by around 6000 votes, that was hardly safe D.

The deciding seat went Dem by double digits. That’s pretty Safe D. It’s just every seat beyond that tipping point narrowly went R’s due to low black turnout in Hampton Roads and Dunnavant’s personal popularity

[Nyvin]

Safe D of course. Never underestimate the visceral hatred of anything associated with an (R) which Virginians harbor in their souls.

This is Safe D, and will flip even if the House somehow doesn't (and it will).

In the "Rate Virginia" thread on the 2020 board he said this...

Toss-up. Won't call a winner.

...which tells you all you need to know.

The senate ended up being decided by around 6000 votes, that was hardly safe D.

It was more like 14k between SD-10 and SD-13.   They won those two races by around 9% each.   A 9% margin can definitely be called safe D.

None of the Dem incumbents got below 60% of the vote either.

[Frenchrepublican]

Safe D. Democrats will probably end up with a 23/17 seats Senate majority

Lol. I overestimated Democrats on this one.

[Nyvin]

At least this is the last election on this map,  for 2023 both SD-13 and SD-28 will get sucked up into NOVA and become safe D seats.   That's inevitable even if there is a NJ style commission,  population growth there demands it.

If VA dems maintain control of redistricting they can also unpack SD-9 some and make SD-12 safe/likely D too.  

[Storr]

Safe D. Democrats will probably end up with a 23/17 seats Senate majority

Lol. I overestimated Democrats on this one.

It was a reasonable guess. A lot of folks felt SD-7 (Virginia Beach) and SD-12 (Northern Richmond suburbs) would go for Democrats, and after all they ended up being the closest Senate contests.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Yeah, Dems definitely underperformed expectations here.

Still, a win is a win, and they’re basically guaranteed a couple more pickups after redistricting.