Rate VA House

[538Electoral]

I will throw the VA Safe D crowd a bone for once and say even I think the VA House is Likely D unless something major happens.

[😥]

Safe D

[MT Treasurer]

Safe D, VA Republicans are 100% dead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D

[Gass3268]

Likely D

[Woody]

Pure toss-up, with a small R-tint.

[Frenchrepublican]

Safe D. Democrats probably flip 5 to 7 seats and end up with something like a 55/45 seats House majority.

[windjammer]

Safe Dem.
With redistricting, this chamber is no longer competitive for the republicans: they will probably win more than 55 seats.

[Xing]

VA = Safe D

[Fuzzy Bear]

I have trouble believing the VA Dems can take the State House after the sort of follies their statewide elected officials have provided (with a helping hand from the VA Democratic Party itself).

This should be in the bag.  I won't believe it until it happens.

[Nyvin]

Safe D.

Probably somewhere in the area of 55-58 dem seats.

Maybe 59 if they flip HD-84.

[ON Progressive]

I have trouble believing the VA Dems can take the State House after the sort of follies their statewide elected officials have provided (with a helping hand from the VA Democratic Party itself).

This should be in the bag.  I won't believe it until it happens.

The vast majority of voters don’t even remember those. In fact, Northam now has double digit net approval.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I have trouble believing the VA Dems can take the State House after the sort of follies their statewide elected officials have provided (with a helping hand from the VA Democratic Party itself).

This should be in the bag.  I won't believe it until it happens.

"I have trouble believing Republicans can take the White House after the sort of follies their Presidential candidate has provided (with a helping hand from the Republican Party itself).

This should be in the bag.  I won't believe it until it happens." - most Americans in 2016

[ElectionsGuy]

Safe D

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pure toss-up, with a small R-tint.

I think this guy has a kink for getting his predictions smashed lol.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I have trouble believing the VA Dems can take the State House after the sort of follies their statewide elected officials have provided (with a helping hand from the VA Democratic Party itself).

This should be in the bag.  I won't believe it until it happens.

Ok, ~48 hours isn't a long time to wait. Cheers till then.

Oh I think Likely D.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Seems like MT Treasurer is the only Republican not stuck in 2004 when it comes to Virginia lol

[OSR stands with Israel]

Seems like MT Treasurer is the only Republican not stuck in 2004 when it comes to Virginia lol

Not every thing is 2004 lol, Republicans won bigger victories in the state house in 2009, 2011 , 2013, and 2015 then they ever did before.



Anyways Likely D, closer to Safe than Lean

[MT Treasurer]

Seems like MT Treasurer is the only Republican not stuck in 2004 when it comes to Virginia lol

It’s okay, I think they’ll finally enter the Anger stage tomorrow.

[UncleSam]

Likely D but close to Safe. I can imagine a situation in which they hang on to 50 or 51 seats with a large over performance but D gains up to like 55 or so are more likely. I also haven’t been paying a ton of attention to this race and am mostly following Sabato on this one

[Xing]

Seems like MT Treasurer is the only Republican not stuck in 2004 when it comes to Virginia lol

It’s okay, I think they’ll finally enter the Anger stage tomorrow.

I honestly doubt that happens until 2020 at least, maybe 2021.

[Gracile]

Seems like MT Treasurer is the only Republican not stuck in 2004 when it comes to Virginia lol

It’s okay, I think they’ll finally enter the Anger stage tomorrow.

You're being too optimistic. They'll just continue to move the goalposts and try to make excuses like how this off-year election is in no way indicative of how Virginia will vote in 2020 for some reason or other.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, you’re probably right. If Trump loses in 2020, they’ll probably predict a GOP surge in 2021 and bayond and we’ll be getting tons of takes telling us that VA is reverting to Tossup/swing state status now that Trump is gone. It’s a sad state of affairs, folks!

[junior chįmp]

Tilt D. The worst of the Northam blackface scandal has passed but the effects still linger in the voters pro/cons notepads

[Nyvin]

Tilt D. The worst of the Northam blackface scandal has passed but the effects still linger in the voters pro/cons notepads

Turnout is looking very high.   It's extremely unlikely the blackface thing plays any role at all in the elections.   No one is going to go to the polls and say "OMG Northam put on blackface!  I'm voting Republican!"   They'd just sit out the election if it had any impact at all.   It's REALLY not looking like that's happening.