Oklahoma redistricting ballot proposal signature collection started.

[lfromnj]

https://www.tulsaworld.com/news/petition-to-create-state-redistricting-commission-filed/article_bcd297b8-b08a-54c1-a5f7-a4f1a07a5d3f.html

[Skill and Chance]

Potentially a very significant development.  This would basically force a Tilt D seat in OKC for Horn (and it should get substantially safer over the decade) and a compact Tulsa seat that could be competitive by the end of the decade, when it would otherwise be trivially easy for the legislature to draw 5R/0D with 60%+ Trump districts.

[Skill and Chance]

For Reference:

Current state of congressional redistricting reform for 2021 apportionment:

Yellow = completely independent process
Green = legislature draws with substantial restrictions

Notes on restrictions:

CT and ME: 2/3rds majority of legislature required to approve a map.

FL: state constitutional amendment imposing many restrictions on partisan maps

KY: bans unnecessary county splits (has a practical impact of forcing a Dem-leaning seat in Louisville that the legislature would otherwise try to eliminate)

OH: county splitting restrictions, maps passed with support from only one party expire after 4 years instead of the normal 10

NY and UT: commission proposes maps that legislature may edit to a certain degree

NC and PA: state court rulings imposing many restrictions on partisan maps


Maximum potential for redistricting reform by voter initiative:

VA and NH do not have the voter initiative, but their legislatures have already voted to begin the process of adopting a commission.  Additional action is required in both states for it to take effect.


Partisan control over the 2021 redistricting process as of today (60% shading = veto proof majority, 30% shading = control with significant external limits on map drawing):

[TML]

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, the most D-friendly map that can be drawn for OK under current conditions would involve only one slightly D-leaning district which would stretch from Tulsa westward and then turn southward toward OKC:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/oklahoma/#Dem

Does anyone think this particular map could be approved by a redistricting commission for OK?

[cvparty]

For Reference:

Current state of congressional redistricting reform for 2021 apportionment:

Yellow = completely independent process
Green = legislature draws with substantial restrictions

Notes on restrictions:

CT and ME: 2/3rds majority of legislature required to approve a map.

FL: state constitutional amendment imposing many restrictions on partisan maps

KY: bans unnecessary county splits (has a practical impact of forcing a Dem-leaning seat in Louisville that the legislature would otherwise try to eliminate)

OH: county splitting restrictions, maps passed with support from only one party expire after 4 years instead of the normal 10

NY and UT: commission proposes maps that legislature may edit to a certain degree

NC and PA: state court rulings imposing many restrictions on partisan maps


Maximum potential for redistricting reform by voter initiative:

VA and NH do not have the voter initiative, but their legislatures have already voted to begin the process of adopting a commission.  Additional action is required in both states for it to take effect.


Partisan control over the 2021 redistricting process as of today (60% shading = veto proof majority, 30% shading = control with significant external limits on map drawing):

nj is definitely not independent lol

[senyor_brownbear]

Arkansans are also trying for this next year. Florida and Ohio should be the two big targets for redistricting initiatives.

[lfromnj]

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, the most D-friendly map that can be drawn for OK under current conditions would involve only one slightly D-leaning district which would stretch from Tulsa westward and then turn southward toward OKC:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/oklahoma/#Dem

Does anyone think this particular map could be approved by a redistricting commission for OK?

Yeah if d hacks are the independents. Just create a nice compact slight r lean district using Oklahoma county minus the reddest suburbs.

[Oryxslayer]

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, the most D-friendly map that can be drawn for OK under current conditions would involve only one slightly D-leaning district which would stretch from Tulsa westward and then turn southward toward OKC:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/oklahoma/#Dem

Does anyone think this particular map could be approved by a redistricting commission for OK?

Yeah if d hacks are the independents. Just create a nice compact slight r lean district using Oklahoman county minus the reddest suburbs.

2020 projections put Oklahoma City county at or above the pop for a single seat. Any fair district map has a district in there, and if you drop the most non-okc bits it becomes more blue then the counties lean. OKC is on the hotlist for counties most likely to go blue next decade, so such a seat would join the pair of Kansas City West and Omaha of have R-leaning urban competitive plains seats. Tulsa won't be competitive though since there needs to be some of the hard GOP suburbs attached to the county, it's just underpopulated compared to the needed numbers.

But if the commission proposal doesn't get enough signatures, then OKC gets cut four ways to Sunday like SLC presently, with one seat reserved for destroying Tulsa.

[Frenchrepublican]

If only all these absolutely non partisan ''good government'' people were lobbying for redistricting commissions in places like  Maryland or Illinois

[lfromnj]

If only all these absolutely non partisan ''good government'' people were lobbying for redistricting commissions in places like  Maryland or Illinois

California?
Washington?
Its just there is no ballot measures in those 2 states.
A d gerrymander in california could now be a 51-2 or a 52-1 map.

[Mr.Phips]

If only all these absolutely non partisan ''good government'' people were lobbying for redistricting commissions in places like  Maryland or Illinois

How about Florida?

[Mr.Phips]

If only all these absolutely non partisan ''good government'' people were lobbying for redistricting commissions in places like  Maryland or Illinois

How about Florida?

[Frenchrepublican]

If only all these absolutely non partisan ''good government'' people were lobbying for redistricting commissions in places like  Maryland or Illinois

How about Florida?

Florida doesn't have a redistricting commission. But voters adopted a resolution which forces the legislature to respect as much as possible counties lines and to make compact districts

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If only all these absolutely non partisan ''good government'' people were lobbying for redistricting commissions in places like  Maryland or Illinois

I don't believe either one has voter-initiated referendums.

[Frenchrepublican]

If only all these absolutely non partisan ''good government'' people were lobbying for redistricting commissions in places like  Maryland or Illinois

I don't believe either one has voter-initiated referendums.

Well, they could try in Oregon then

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If only all these absolutely non partisan ''good government'' people were lobbying for redistricting commissions in places like  Maryland or Illinois

I don't believe either one has voter-initiated referendums.

Well, they could try in Oregon then

Oregon already has pretty strict laws governing redistricting.

[Frenchrepublican]

If only all these absolutely non partisan ''good government'' people were lobbying for redistricting commissions in places like  Maryland or Illinois

I don't believe either one has voter-initiated referendums.

Well, they could try in Oregon then

Oregon already has pretty strict laws governing redistricting.

A Oregon fair map would be : 2 Safe D CDs, 1 Likely D CD, 1 Likely R CD and 1 Safe R CD

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If only all these absolutely non partisan ''good government'' people were lobbying for redistricting commissions in places like  Maryland or Illinois

I don't believe either one has voter-initiated referendums.

Well, they could try in Oregon then

Oregon already has pretty strict laws governing redistricting.

A Oregon fair map would be : 2 Safe D CDs, 1 Likely D CD, 1 Likely R CD and 1 Safe R CD

How do you draw a Likely R seat without splitting their vote sink in Eastern Oregon? (Which is actually prohibited under said rules.)

[Nyvin]

If only all these absolutely non partisan ''good government'' people were lobbying for redistricting commissions in places like  Maryland or Illinois

I don't believe either one has voter-initiated referendums.

Well, they could try in Oregon then

Oregon already has pretty strict laws governing redistricting.

A Oregon fair map would be : 2 Safe D CDs, 1 Likely D CD, 1 Likely R CD and 1 Safe R CD

The current Oregon map is 2 Safe D, 2 Swing, 1 Safe R.   It's just that Republicans completely suck at winning the two swing districts.

OR-4 was probably borderline Likely D at the beginning of the decade, but that's because back then southwest OR was much more dem back then and the district was legit (not gerrymandered).   OR-4 is probably as plain of a district you can draw given state laws.

[lfromnj]

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, the most D-friendly map that can be drawn for OK under current conditions would involve only one slightly D-leaning district which would stretch from Tulsa westward and then turn southward toward OKC:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/oklahoma/#Dem

Does anyone think this particular map could be approved by a redistricting commission for OK?

Yeah if d hacks are the independents. Just create a nice compact slight r lean district using Oklahoman county minus the reddest suburbs.

2020 projections put Oklahoma City county at or above the pop for a single seat. Any fair district map has a district in there, and if you drop the most non-okc bits it becomes more blue then the counties lean. OKC is on the hotlist for counties most likely to go blue next decade, so such a seat would join the pair of Kansas City West and Omaha of have R-leaning urban competitive plains seats. Tulsa won't be competitive though since there needs to be some of the hard GOP suburbs attached to the county, it's just underpopulated compared to the needed numbers.

But if the commission proposal doesn't get enough signatures, then OKC gets cut four ways to Sunday like SLC presently, with one seat reserved for destroying Tulsa.

Thats what I meant
Its most of Oklahoma county minus some red suburbs. That should be around Trump +8?

[senyor_brownbear]

There's a strong possibility that voters fail to pass this in Oklahoma. These ballot initiatives are very popular but if it fails anywhere, its going to be in the deepest red states. Utah was 50/50. South Dakota failed.
Also the state supreme court could potentially overrule it. The only reason Michigan's was saved was because moderate judges sided with the Democrats.

[lfromnj]

There's a strong possibility that voters fail to pass this in Oklahoma. These ballot initiatives are very popular but if it fails anywhere, its going to be in the deepest red states. Utah was 50/50. South Dakota failed.
Also the state supreme court could potentially overrule it. The only reason Michigan's was saved was because moderate judges sided with the Democrats.

The state supreme court is still D thx to Brad Henry