Do people seriously think Beshear will underperform the no name some guy who ran against Hal Rogers in 2018 and got about 20% district wide? Because some are predicting him getting less than 46%.
If 46% is Beshear's absolute floor, it's not hard to see him winning it against someone who will definitely significantly underrun Rogers.
Yes.
Hit me up after tomorrow and we’ll see who’s right.
Loyal Democrats being
heavily clustered among the oldest voters is arguably one reason: even a single year's turnover can make a huge difference in terms of performance. Coupled with likely weaker turnout among younger voters (who as a whole are probably still less D than the olds - but more D than voters overall; the youngs who end up not showing are probably more D than the olds) and it's feasible to have a weaker performance.
Not saying I agree that will happen, but that's probably the path of least resistance in explaining how it
could happen.
