How will Beshear do in Elliot County?

[coolface1572]

Will Andy Beshear be able to win this historically democratic county?

BTW If Beshear narrowly loses due to Eastern KY, I will be the first to say #Rockywouldhavewon

[Lisa's voting Biden]

He will probably win it by a fair margin. Conway won it with 57% of the vote in 2015. It is still a very Democratic county, just not at the Presidential level anymore.

[Oryxslayer]

Elliot has too blue a base to not vote dem when the state is reasonably competitive. But her once blue neighbors? Yeah, the east is red.

If Beshear wins,he will need something like this map, probably with more coming from the Cincinnati suburbs.

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1189703078842372097

[IceSpear]

Bevin wins. Not sure about the margin though.

[Xing]

Another #bold prediction I have for KY-GOV is that Bevin wins Elliott, as well as every county except Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette. I suppose I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Beshear narrowly won Elliott, but he'll certainly do worse than Conway there.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Does it matter , Elliot is not that large of a county to make that much of a difference and 2012 proves that it doesnt mean much for Eastern KY anyway

[IceSpear]

Another #bold prediction I have for KY-GOV is that Bevin wins Elliott, as well as every county except Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette. I suppose I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Beshear narrowly won Elliott, but he'll certainly do worse than Conway there.

That was my #bold prediction back in December too!

#Populist Beshear will win dozens of rural Appalachian counties again if nominee!

Ice what's your bet on elliot? I'm going Tilt r unless Adkins is the nominee then I think its lean d.
Previously I would have said likely but the manchin btfo in the coal counties made me change my mind.

My "bold" prediction is that Beshear wins only three counties: Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin. Maybe if he's lucky he'll win them by a large enough margin to not get BTFO statewide too badly, but I wouldn't count on it. Atlas will be dismayed because clearly he was supposed to sweep Appalachia just like Appalachian Heroes Mark Warner, Ted Strickland, Jack Conway, Richard Ojeda, Phil Bredesen, Amy McGrath, Alison Lundergan Grimes, Sherrod Brown, Joe Manchin, etc. #ILearnedNothingFrom2016Or2018

[Xing]

Another #bold prediction I have for KY-GOV is that Bevin wins Elliott, as well as every county except Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette. I suppose I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Beshear narrowly won Elliott, but he'll certainly do worse than Conway there.

That was my #bold prediction back in December too!

Sadly, it still is a #bold prediction, and I'm sure the next time a "strong" Democrat runs against a "weak" or "unpopular" Republican in a dark red state or district, predicting that said Democrat will lose badly will be #bold.

[Oryxslayer]

Another #bold prediction I have for KY-GOV is that Bevin wins Elliott, as well as every county except Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette. I suppose I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Beshear narrowly won Elliott, but he'll certainly do worse than Conway there.

That was my #bold prediction back in December too!

Sadly, it still is a #bold prediction, and I'm sure the next time a "strong" Democrat runs against a "weak" or "unpopular" Republican in a dark red state or district, predicting that said Democrat will lose badly will be #bold.

I never realized Governor Kobach was elected, Governor Jealous was elected, and Governor Noem and Governor Lamont won by 60-40. Bevin can easily win, but govs always underpreform the baseline when they or their predecessors have bad approvals. Similarity, they overpreform when they or their opponent is very popular. Because in recent Governor elections, partisanship is on average only half as strong as when you are voting for a washington slot, and that half is up from only a third/fourth as strong in old times.

[Calthrina950]

Another #bold prediction I have for KY-GOV is that Bevin wins Elliott, as well as every county except Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette. I suppose I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Beshear narrowly won Elliott, but he'll certainly do worse than Conway there.

I agree. As I've noted previously, Hal Rogers won Elliott County by 8% last year, the first time ever in a competitive race that he had carried it. And given the rural trends that we are seeing, I doubt that Beshear will be able to hold it. Yes, Jim Gray won it by 12% in 2016 while Trump was carrying it by 44% at the same time, but the trends had not played out in full force then, nor had the polarizing effects of Trump's first few years in office. Elliott County is abandoning the Democrats even more rapidly than Vermont abandoned the Republicans, to give a parallel (and in some ways, Vermont has not abandoned them fully, given that it currently has a Republican Governor, however much of a RINO he may be).

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Something to keep in mind: Remember that Kentucky State Senate Special Election earlier this year that the Democrat lost in a District that included Elliott County? That Democrat got over 70% of the vote in Elliott County despite losing. Lean Beshear in Elliott County. Tilt Bevin statewide.

[IceSpear]

Another #bold prediction I have for KY-GOV is that Bevin wins Elliott, as well as every county except Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette. I suppose I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Beshear narrowly won Elliott, but he'll certainly do worse than Conway there.

That was my #bold prediction back in December too!

Sadly, it still is a #bold prediction, and I'm sure the next time a "strong" Democrat runs against a "weak" or "unpopular" Republican in a dark red state or district, predicting that said Democrat will lose badly will be #bold.

I never realized Governor Kobach was elected, Governor Jealous was elected, and Governor Noem and Governor Lamont won by 60-40. Bevin can easily win, but govs always underpreform the baseline when they or their predecessors have bad approvals. Similarity, they overpreform when they or their opponent is very popular. Because in recent Governor elections, partisanship is on average only half as strong as when you are voting for a washington slot, and that half is up from only a third/fourth as strong in old times.

Nobody is denying this. But when your baseline is R+30 in a state that is continually trending to the right, well...

[Xing]

Another #bold prediction I have for KY-GOV is that Bevin wins Elliott, as well as every county except Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette. I suppose I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Beshear narrowly won Elliott, but he'll certainly do worse than Conway there.

That was my #bold prediction back in December too!

Sadly, it still is a #bold prediction, and I'm sure the next time a "strong" Democrat runs against a "weak" or "unpopular" Republican in a dark red state or district, predicting that said Democrat will lose badly will be #bold.

I never realized Governor Kobach was elected, Governor Jealous was elected, and Governor Noem and Governor Lamont won by 60-40. Bevin can easily win, but govs always underpreform the baseline when they or their predecessors have bad approvals. Similarity, they overpreform when they or their opponent is very popular. Because in recent Governor elections, partisanship is on average only half as strong as when you are voting for a washington slot, and that half is up from only a third/fourth as strong in old times.

Obviously there are exceptions, and I'm not saying that it makes no difference at all who the candidates are (thus why no one thinks Bevin will win by anything like 30), but the ability of candidates to defy the partisan lean of their state, even in gubernatorial races, is declining. This is even more true for Democrats in red states than it is for Republicans in blue states.

[Gone to Carolina]

I’d wager Elliot votes in line with the state roughly, so high single digits Republican win or something about there.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

He will win it unless he is getting blown out statewide, although of course such a result cannot be fully ruled out at this point.

[Abner Beech]

Beshear gets 55-60%

[Frenchrepublican]

Last year at the congressionnal level Elliott county still gave 46% to the democratic candiddate. Beshear will probably win it 50/45

[ElectionsGuy]

Tough to say. I think it's more likely to go to Beshear, by a slim margin. But, this may be the last time the county goes Democratic in a long time.

[coolface1572]

I never thought this form would blow up as much as it did.

Here is everything Elliot voted for since 2015:

2016
Trump 70%
US senate Jim Gray (D) 56%
State House Rocky Adkins (D) 85%

2018: US House
Hal Rogers (R) 54%

2019 special
State senate: Darryl Puyah (D) 72%

Beshear will do fine here. Especially since he is now featuring Rocky in his ads. However, it is possible that Mitch Mcconnell can win here for the US senate next year.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Last year at the congressionnal level Elliott county still gave 46% to the democratic candiddate. Beshear will probably win it 50/45

[Mr. Smith]

Probably on the wrong side of a plurality to actually win the county.

[Bidenworth2020]

It will almost certainly vote for Beshear.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I genuinely think Elliot County will vote to the right of the state at large. I'm thinking it will by 5-10%.

Quote me on this after Tuesday.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I genuinely think Elliot County will vote to the right of the state at large. I'm thinking it will by 5-10%.

Quote me on this after Tuesday.

Quoted now so that you cannot delete this later in the likely event that you are wrong.

[MT Treasurer]

Hal Rogers won it by 10%, but he also won the district by 58%, so no one should be surprised if Elliott voted for Beshear. However, the thing is that these trends are so supercharged and the Democratic label so toxic in places like this that uniform swing/overall environment/PVI might be lagging indicators, so don’t be surprised if it (narrowly) votes for Bevin even in a close race. Even in 2018, there were rural counties in NV and OH which swung to the right even as those states moved 50 and 30 points to the left, respectively. There might be just enough voters in 2019 who aren’t going to give a Democratic candidate the time of the day in this environment.

I do think this wouldn’t even be a question if Adkins had been the nominee, though.