Another #bold prediction I have for KY-GOV is that Bevin wins Elliott, as well as every county except Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette. He'll certainly do worse than Conway there.
As I've noted previously, Hal Rogers won Elliott County by 8% last year, the first time ever in a competitive race that he had carried it. And given the rural trends that we are seeing, I doubt that Beshear will be able to hold it. Yes, Jim Gray won it by 12% in 2016 while Trump was carrying it by 44% at the same time, but the trends had not played out in full force then, nor had the polarizing effects of Trump's first few years in office. Elliott County is abandoning the Democrats even more rapidly than Vermont abandoned the Republicans, to give a parallel (and in some ways, Vermont has not abandoned them fully, given that it currently has a Republican Governor, however much of a RINO he may be).
I’d wager Elliot votes in line with the state roughly, so high single digits Republican win or something about there.
Probably on the wrong side of a plurality to actually win the county.
I genuinely think Elliot County will vote to the right of the state at large. I'm thinking it will by 5-10%.
He will lose it, but by less than Clinton seems the safe answer here.
Loses statewide by 5 and Elliott by low double digits.
Have to give the edge in Elliott to Bevin.
Very happily eating crow about these numbers.
