How will Beshear do in Elliot County?

[Oryxslayer]

Elliot has too blue a base to not vote dem when the state is reasonably competitive. But her once blue neighbors? Yeah, the east is red.

If Beshear wins,he will need something like this map, probably with more coming from the Cincinnati suburbs.

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1189703078842372097

[Oryxslayer]

Another #bold prediction I have for KY-GOV is that Bevin wins Elliott, as well as every county except Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette. I suppose I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Beshear narrowly won Elliott, but he'll certainly do worse than Conway there.

That was my #bold prediction back in December too!

Sadly, it still is a #bold prediction, and I'm sure the next time a "strong" Democrat runs against a "weak" or "unpopular" Republican in a dark red state or district, predicting that said Democrat will lose badly will be #bold.

I never realized Governor Kobach was elected, Governor Jealous was elected, and Governor Noem and Governor Lamont won by 60-40. Bevin can easily win, but govs always underpreform the baseline when they or their predecessors have bad approvals. Similarity, they overpreform when they or their opponent is very popular. Because in recent Governor elections, partisanship is on average only half as strong as when you are voting for a washington slot, and that half is up from only a third/fourth as strong in old times.

[Oryxslayer]

You know, I will make an exception for trends for this one. I think Beshear wins Elliot county by high singles to low doubles. Some literal rando only lost it by 8% in a federal house race against Hal Rogers, I just fail to see how Bevin wins it.

Yes, it's not some outlandish prediction that a county still to the left of the state with a high, albeit degrading Dem floor, is going to vote for the democrat when s/he is on track for a respectable (at the minimum) showing statewide. I shouldn't also be that outlandish a prediction that this may be the last year the counties base is large enough to vote blue in meaningful races. Future occurrences will be limited to the rare blue landslide or no name congressional/local candidates pulling more then their constituencies baseline just by being on the ticket in a hard R region.

[Oryxslayer]

The most important County for Beshear tomorrow will be Jefferson County. He needs to win that 58-42 or something like that to have a chance maybe even higher.

Uh he definetely needs to win it higher considering Clinton won Jefferson by 14.

Jefferson should be 70-30 or better for Beshear, with respectable turnout, to be on track for a win.

[Oryxslayer]

I accept all blame  if it flips, but Elliot looks to be making some  of the  prediction here look LOL tier.

[Oryxslayer]

Literally 1 precinct is in, with less than 200 votes...

This is a small, rather homogeneous county. Sure it's one precinct, but the rest will be somewhat similar.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1191883153016807427

Yep, GG no Re.

EDIT:  Why you delete NYT Tweet Miles?