How will Beshear do in Elliot County?

[Calthrina950]

Another #bold prediction I have for KY-GOV is that Bevin wins Elliott, as well as every county except Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette. I suppose I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Beshear narrowly won Elliott, but he'll certainly do worse than Conway there.

I agree. As I've noted previously, Hal Rogers won Elliott County by 8% last year, the first time ever in a competitive race that he had carried it. And given the rural trends that we are seeing, I doubt that Beshear will be able to hold it. Yes, Jim Gray won it by 12% in 2016 while Trump was carrying it by 44% at the same time, but the trends had not played out in full force then, nor had the polarizing effects of Trump's first few years in office. Elliott County is abandoning the Democrats even more rapidly than Vermont abandoned the Republicans, to give a parallel (and in some ways, Vermont has not abandoned them fully, given that it currently has a Republican Governor, however much of a RINO he may be).

[Calthrina950]

Hal Rogers won it by 10%, but he also won the district by 58%, so no one should be surprised if Elliott voted for Beshear. However, the thing is that these trends are so supercharged and the Democratic label so toxic in places like this that uniform swing/overall environment/PVI might be lagging indicators, so don’t be surprised if it (narrowly) votes for Bevin even in a close race. Even in 2018, there were rural counties in NV and OH which swung to the right even as those states moved 50 and 30 points to the left, respectively. There might be just enough voters in 2019 who aren’t going to give a Democratic candidate the time of the day in this environment.

I do think this wouldn’t even be a question if Adkins had been the nominee, though.

I agree with this. This is yet another reason as to why it was a mistake for Democratic primary voters to nominate Beshear, and why he will go down in flames.

[Calthrina950]

Loses statewide by 5 and Elliott by low double digits.

Lol. Elliott is not voting to the right of the state

It did in 2016.

Albeit in the presidential, but not Senatorial, race that year. Nevertheless, given polarization, who knows what might happen? It's been almost a year since Rogers' victory in the county, and Democratic strength has probably frayed further there since.

[Calthrina950]

Beshear will win Rowan and Elliot and nowhere else in the East.

Rowan, I can see. Elliott, I'm doubtful about. If Beshear does win Elliott, he will probably be the last Democrat to carry it for a long time to come.

[Calthrina950]

This is beautiful. Atlas wrong all over again lmao

And in a good way! I'm glad to see that Elliott is actually going for Beshear.

[Calthrina950]

Literally 1 precinct is in, with less than 200 votes...

This is true. We could still see this race going the trajectory of the Bishop-McCready race back in September, with Bevin regaining the lead and ultimately winning by a narrow margin. But I'm still not certain of it, given how early this is.

[Calthrina950]

Literally 1 precinct is in, with less than 200 votes...

This is true. We could still see this race going the trajectory of the Bishop-McCready race back in September, with Bevin regaining the lead and ultimately winning by a narrow margin. But I'm still not certain of it, given how early this is.

I'll concede that it would take an enormous shift for Bevin to win it at this point, but the eventual margin won't be this lopsided.

You are right about that. And Elliott County in particular may not vote Democratic for a long time after this election cycle.

[Calthrina950]

I'm glad to see that Elliott returned to its Democratic roots in force for this race, though we know how it will go next year.

[Calthrina950]

I'm glad to see that Elliott returned to its Democratic roots in force for this race, though we know how it will go next year.

The question is will it go to McConnell

I'm leaning no. I still keep in mind that Hal Rogers won it last year, but I'm now predicting that McConnell will probably win by around Rand Paul's margin next year (as he will run behind Trump by a few percentage points, like Paul did). Given that every single statewide Democratic candidate won Elliott tonight, I would assume that McGrath or whoever else is the nominee should be able to carry it against McConnell.