How will Beshear do in Elliot County?

[MT Treasurer]

Hal Rogers won it by 10%, but he also won the district by 58%, so no one should be surprised if Elliott voted for Beshear. However, the thing is that these trends are so supercharged and the Democratic label so toxic in places like this that uniform swing/overall environment/PVI might be lagging indicators, so don’t be surprised if it (narrowly) votes for Bevin even in a close race. Even in 2018, there were rural counties in NV and OH which swung to the right even as those states moved 50 and 30 points to the left, respectively. There might be just enough voters in 2019 who aren’t going to give a Democratic candidate the time of the day in this environment.

I do think this wouldn’t even be a question if Adkins had been the nominee, though.

[MT Treasurer]

I wish this was a poll, so we could see how many people actually think each way. Responses are very mixed.

There’s a lot of uncertainty not just with places like Elliott but also the race in general, so all we can do is make a rough guess. The lack of polling doesn’t help (although it should at least make election night much more interesting, which is always good).