How will Beshear do in Elliot County?

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Another #bold prediction I have for KY-GOV is that Bevin wins Elliott, as well as every county except Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette. I suppose I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Beshear narrowly won Elliott, but he'll certainly do worse than Conway there.

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Another #bold prediction I have for KY-GOV is that Bevin wins Elliott, as well as every county except Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette. I suppose I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Beshear narrowly won Elliott, but he'll certainly do worse than Conway there.

That was my #bold prediction back in December too!

Sadly, it still is a #bold prediction, and I'm sure the next time a "strong" Democrat runs against a "weak" or "unpopular" Republican in a dark red state or district, predicting that said Democrat will lose badly will be #bold.

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Another #bold prediction I have for KY-GOV is that Bevin wins Elliott, as well as every county except Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette. I suppose I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Beshear narrowly won Elliott, but he'll certainly do worse than Conway there.

That was my #bold prediction back in December too!

Sadly, it still is a #bold prediction, and I'm sure the next time a "strong" Democrat runs against a "weak" or "unpopular" Republican in a dark red state or district, predicting that said Democrat will lose badly will be #bold.

I never realized Governor Kobach was elected, Governor Jealous was elected, and Governor Noem and Governor Lamont won by 60-40. Bevin can easily win, but govs always underpreform the baseline when they or their predecessors have bad approvals. Similarity, they overpreform when they or their opponent is very popular. Because in recent Governor elections, partisanship is on average only half as strong as when you are voting for a washington slot, and that half is up from only a third/fourth as strong in old times.

Obviously there are exceptions, and I'm not saying that it makes no difference at all who the candidates are (thus why no one thinks Bevin will win by anything like 30), but the ability of candidates to defy the partisan lean of their state, even in gubernatorial races, is declining. This is even more true for Democrats in red states than it is for Republicans in blue states.

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Literally 1 precinct is in, with less than 200 votes...

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Literally 1 precinct is in, with less than 200 votes...

This is true. We could still see this race going the trajectory of the Bishop-McCready race back in September, with Bevin regaining the lead and ultimately winning by a narrow margin. But I'm still not certain of it, given how early this is.

I'll concede that it would take an enormous shift for Bevin to win it at this point, but the eventual margin won't be this lopsided.