North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Skill and Chance]

That really just leaves Ohio and Texas as the last two surviving "major" R Gerrymanders left in the country.   (Not saying the NC Map is perfect now or anything)

We'll see how well the Texas one holds up next year though.

Important to note that Texas uses the same statewide partisan judicial election system as PA and NC for its state supreme court (except with normal primaries, so it is always 1 D and 1 R running per court seat in the GE).  This is all enshrined in the state constitution, which would require a 2/3rds majority vote of both state legislative chambers (which Republicans have never held in both chambers simultaneously) and then a majority statewide referendum vote to change.  Currently, all of the state supreme court seats are held by Republicans, but if Democrats reach the point where they are often able to win statewide elections, PA/NC style map reform is likely coming to Texas during the 2020's. 


Normally 3 of the 9 seats are up every 2 years.

[Skill and Chance]

That really just leaves Ohio and Texas as the last two surviving "major" R Gerrymanders left in the country.   (Not saying the NC Map is perfect now or anything)

We'll see how well the Texas one holds up next year though.

Georgia too.

Yeah, Georgia is going to be one of the toughest large state gerrymanders to break.  There is simply no statewide "backdoor" available for reform advocates and a 2/3rds majority gerrymander of the state legislature isn't impossible either.  If VA is gerrymandered in favor of Dems, it will be similarly hard to break. 

[Skill and Chance]

That really just leaves Ohio and Texas as the last two surviving "major" R Gerrymanders left in the country.   (Not saying the NC Map is perfect now or anything)

We'll see how well the Texas one holds up next year though.

Important to note that Texas uses the same statewide partisan judicial election system as PA and NC for its state supreme court (except with normal primaries, so it is always 1 D and 1 R running per court seat in the GE).  This is all enshrined in the state constitution, which would require a 2/3rds majority vote of both state legislative chambers (which Republicans have never held in both chambers simultaneously) and then a majority statewide referendum vote to change.  Currently, all of the state supreme court seats are held by Republicans, but if Democrats reach the point where they are often able to win statewide elections, PA/NC style map reform is likely coming to Texas during the 2020's. 


Normally 3 of the 9 seats are up every 2 years.

There is no requirement in the Texas constitution for partisan judicial elections.

Yes, I regret that error.  It would presumably be possible to make the elections nonpartisan or change the primary format by passing a standard law, but moving away from statewide elections (to merit selection, senate confirmation other than until next election, supreme court districts, or whatever) or changing the number of seats or term lengths for the state supreme court would require going through the amendment process.

BTW I wish all states with partisan judicial elections would remove the party labels.  The concept is repugnant.

[Skill and Chance]

BTW it increasingly looks like the NC-07/eastern NC-09 area is "going WV" on Dems even compared to other parts of the rural South.  I wouldn't count on Dems flipping anything in that area even with the most favorable map.  The best potential for an outstate Dem flip during the 2020's is in the mountains if the court forces Asheville and Boone into the same seat given how hard left both have been moving.
 

[Skill and Chance]

I ran up a rough outline for what the Republicans might try for in the next round of redistricting, based on a new seat being created south of Raleigh and an attempt to lock in a reasonably secure 9-5 advantage. I've aimed to minimise change with the other seats and to pay some attention to incumbent protection considerations, although given we don't know exactly who the map was drawn for I may have made mistakes.

A secure 10-4 is probably possible if you put Forsyth and Guilford counties in separate districts, but given how many maps they've had struck down, it's questionable whether they want to risk that again and get a worse map imposed on them.



I made it with 2016 population numbers, but the Clinton-Trump numbers were taken by recreating it with 2010 voting districts. They don't line up perfectly, but it should be close enough.

NC-1: Clinton +12. 48% white, 42% black on 2016 numbers, probably more like 50-40 on VAP but should still reliably elect a black Democrat. If more counties are split, you could raise the black VAP a couple of points fairly easily.

NC-2: Clinton +26. 57% white by population.

NC-3: Trump +25. Greg Murphy doesn't live in this district (he's in Greenville), but putting in an arm to catch his residence wouldn't be difficult.

NC-4: Clinton +37. Loses its outlying counties. 58% white by population.

NC-5: Trump +40.

NC-6: Clinton +29. Shrinks somewhat and becomes more strongly Democratic. 49% white, 34% black by total population, which means the Democratic primary is probably plurality black?

NC-7: Trump +7. Loses its northern tendril and gains most of Fayetteville. I figure Mike McIntyre isn't coming back, but if this is too marginal then you could always swap more of Fayetteville for Sampson County.

NC-8: Trump +35. Shifts northwards and westwards.

NC-9: Trump +10. Loses territory on both its eastern and western edges. Depending on how worried they are about south Charlotte, you could always shift more of that into NC-12 and grab territory from NC-8 to compensate.

NC-10: Trump +32. I've added back in Gaston County and I've also added northern Mecklenburg County, making it more purely suburban in exchange for the arm north.

NC-11: Trump +15. As it's no longer a realistic Democratic target, you don't need to do anything daft with the boundaries.

NC-12: Clinton +47. On 2016 numbers, white 36%, black 40%, Hispanic 15%. It would still be safe for a black Democrat even if it does have to add more of southern Mecklenburg.

NC-13: Trump +28. This is possibly slightly more cohesive than the remedial seat, but it's still a leftovers seat.

NC-14: Trump +14. Somewhat suburban, but most of it still trended R in 2016 so it ought to be reliable enough.

I actually think NC-11 is the best Dem target of the outstate districts, particularly if it has to shrink and gets pushed more up against the mountains and out of the blood red counties just west of Charlotte.  Asheville is racing left in a PVI sense, while the entire Sandhills area is racing right (there's even been a trend right in Cumberland, which was basically unheard of for urban centers in 2016-18).

There's also a decent chance the court imposes an all mountains district for the 2021 redraw that would include Boone, in which case it starts out Lean R at most.   

[Skill and Chance]

Anyway there is still a decent chance the NC Could sweep the supreme court races this year giving 4-3 control of the courts in which case the NC GOP could do 11-3 or 10-4.
If not it depends how hardball each side plays, I think Democrats will be much better prepared for the 2022 cycle and will hardball as possible for either the Charlotte split or 4 districts in the Piedmont to Wake or even both,

A sweep this year would still be 4/3 Dem control afterward.   The lone Republican held seat is one of the 3 that are up. 

[Skill and Chance]

Anyway there is still a decent chance the NC Could sweep the supreme court races this year giving 4-3 control of the courts in which case the NC GOP could do 11-3 or 10-4.
If not it depends how hardball each side plays, I think Democrats will be much better prepared for the 2022 cycle and will hardball as possible for either the Charlotte split or 4 districts in the Piedmont to Wake or even both,

A sweep this year would still be 4/3 Dem control afterward.   The lone Republican held seat is one of the 3 that are up. 

My bad thank you !

For more context, the lone Republican incumbent is vacating his seat to challenge the appointed Dem for Chief Justice, so the R held seat will be open.  The Dem Chief Justice has already been elected to the court as an associate justice in thee past.  Cooper just elevated her to Chief Justice.  IDK who is favored in this race between 2 incumbents.  The other Dem incumbent up in 2020 was appointed by Cooper in 2019, so this is his first supreme court election. 

In a good Republican year, they probably win 2 of the 3, in a good Dem year they maintain the current balance.  With Trump consistently doing well in NC but Dems doing somewhat better downballot, I think the most likely outcome is R's pick up 1 seat.  2 Dem incumbents are up in 2022, so to be assured of continued control beyond then, they need to maintain the 6/1 split.

It's also technically possible to pack the court, but only with 2 additional seats because the NC constitution weirdly sets a limit of 9 and there are currently 7.   So if Republicans flip the governorship or take a veto-proof majority (quite unlikely under the new 2020 maps though) and the court is 4D/3R, they could flip control by adding 2 seats.  Given that everything they tried during the 2010's to modify judicial elections has backfired on them, and a 4/3 court that could flip in 2022 anyway is likely to be more restrained, I doubt this would actually happen.     

[Skill and Chance]

The NC senate and NC House are really in play?

In the state senate,  SD-39 will probably flip regardless of the national environment, it's a Clinton +20 district that's held by an R.

Other than that, SD-18 can go from R to D as well, it's Clinton +1 and R held.  It's in north Wake county and trending D overall.  The incumbent isn't running for re-election.

If the Dems can defend all their vulnerable seats (SD-9, SD-17, and SD-19 imo) then that brings them to 23D-27R.   To get the last two they'd need to win some Trump +9 or 10 districts.

Not impossible (especially if they can flip the Robeson County one, SD-13) but it's an uphill battle.

Hmmm... the year the NC Dems would really want to take a legislative chamber is 2022.  They are assured a say in the 2021 process through the partisan state supreme court.

[Skill and Chance]

The NC supreme court races? Any guesses?

Chief Justice is incumbent vs. incumbent, resulting in a previously R held open associate justice seat on the court.  The 3rd seat up is a Dem incumbent running for the seat they currently hold.  I'd have to guess 2R/1D or 2D/1R are the most likely outcomes?  CJ goes to whichever side does better statewide in general (though unclear if we should be measuring against Cooper, Tillis, or Trump?), the Dem incumbent probably holds on, and the GOP probably holds the open seat. 

[Skill and Chance]

Have y'all tried drawing with NC on the new population numbers? I've been tinkering around with some maps (nothing finished yet). So far it seems like the population distribution is a little better as far as drawing decent community of interest based districts ( ) but there seem to be fewer whole-county combinations which make concise districts ( ).

There also seem to be a few other "difficult points." The 1st district has been declining in population all decade even as NC has been gaining a seat, so it doesn't change much from 2010. Eastern North Carolina seems to have had laggy growth in general, but unlike last time it does seem to be possible to draw three ENC districts. Another thing worth noting is that Eastern Wake County is increasingly black; it means that a district based in Johnston or Franklin County might shouldn't cut in in that direction.

Yeah the map with the Charlotte split was with 2018 numbers as its now possible for a majority minority district there while keeping a Safe D white suburban district, anyway I wouldn't try for whole counties in a map rn, 2018 estimates are close to what actually happens but 2 years is still a lot of possible deviation.

That's fair. Still it's depressing to see that concise whole county NC-11 is basically impossible, at least under the current numbers, especially when there were multiple reasonable whole county combinations in 2010.

Actually you can start from the west and go to Asheville and then drag a county strip to wautaga for a deviation of only +333. Not perfectly compact but still follows the COI of the mountain ranges and allows for the most competitive seat in the region possible. So its basically a no brainer seat.

That excludes Henderson County no? Frankly I'd call a version of NC-11 which excludes Henderson County unreasonable, considering how interconnected Buncombe and Henderson are. Still, a good catch, though I might actually prefer a map with a county split to cleaving those two counties.

No just look at Oryx slayers map, it will probably have to take a few precints from the next county over too but seriously this district makes no sense not to make in any court/fair map


Preserves COI's(mountain ranges)
has a mostly reasonable shape with a very slightly odd arm
and keeps a slightly competitive district(Trump got 54% here) and it was only MCrory +2, trends aren't great here for D's but its the best district possible.

I really think Asheville would be Dem enough to dominate that CD by the end of the decade, especially with Boone included.

[Skill and Chance]

If the current 6/1 Dem majority on the state supreme court holds, they will likely just impose their preferred map no matter what.  If it falls to 4D/3R, they probably won't intervene unless it's something as egregious as the 2011 map. 

[Skill and Chance]

Butterfield might need Durham back, in some deal or so considering he is only up by 8 points. I think a 9-5 map is probably what happens. NC D's look likely to take a net of -1 in the state supreme court and possibly -2 to a total of 4-3.

The CJ seat has narrowed from R +4K votes to R+<1K, and there are 10's of thousands of absentees left to count.  Pretty sure that one flips back to the incumbent Dem, but R's are sure to win the other 2 seats now.  5D/2R is the most likely outcome.  The seats up in 2022 are 2D/1R, so it is very possible the court flips in a Biden midterm.

[Skill and Chance]

CJ Beasley is now likely to lose.  The late absentees and provisionals were surprisingly R, as they have been in other states.  So the court will be 4D/3R when it reviews the maps.  This leaves a couple of different scenarios:

1. Is one of the remaining D's known as a don't-rock-the-boat moderate?  Did any Dems dissent from or more narrowly concur in the decision throwing out the 2010's maps?  It only takes one crossover vote to defer to the legislature now. 

2.  If they are all committed liberals, they could go for broke in trying to set up the most Dem possible maps for 2022 knowing that they will almost surely lose their 1-seat majority in a Biden midterm anyway?

[Skill and Chance]

What's the restrictions on mid decade redistricting if any?

Tbh not sure, if they draw a 10-4 in the beginning maybe they won't take the move of mid decade redistricting for 1 congressional seat that slightly weakens others. If there aren't any restrictions but the D court imposes some 6D map or something I would expect them to do it.

A mid decade redraw would be illegal for the state legislative maps unless court-ordered, but there are no restrictions for redrawing the congressional map mid decade.

[Skill and Chance]

Given how 2022 will go, is it a reasonable assumption that the gerrymander will be in place for several cycles, perhaps the full decade?

That would be my tentative guess, but a lot can change in 8 years.

In the most recent polling, the R's are leading 5X/3X for the D-held state supreme court seats that are up next year.

[Skill and Chance]

This is pointless. The SCONC will flip anyway and republicans will draw another gerrymander mid decade

There’s no downside for us; why not fight it in court and see what we can get?

This.  It's also unconstitutional in NC to redraw the state legislative districts mid-decade, so if either of those maps get thrown out, the changes will stick.  Dems could plausibly flip a chamber over the course of the decade.

[Skill and Chance]

I think the more egregious state legislative districts are in the lower chamber?

[Skill and Chance]

North Carolina Supreme Court has agreed to delay the primaries.

https://twitter.com/SFalmlen/status/1468697706994544640?s=20

GOOD

If the NCGOP wants war, they'll get war. They might still win it, but they'll have to fight it out and pay a price.

All out war ends in impeachment, the NC court should be careful about pushing it too far especially with regards to legislative districts. You tell me what you would strike down on the above senate maps.

https://sites.duke.edu/quantifyinggerrymandering/files/2021/08/countyClusters2020.pdf

Use these if you are confused about any weird districts. For example 19/21 look weird but are 100% justifiable.  Democrats wanted to split Fayetteville in 2 to get 2 Dem seats. The GOP merely said no to that. In exchange they were however consistent on the senate map and did not split Wilmington. If the NC court is going to say you can't split Wilmington but must split Fayetteville they really are pushing their luck.

Dems don’t have a ton of argument on the legislative districts.  However on the congressional districts, they can easily argue that the black vote was diluted in NC-02 and that there is no good reason for the Guilford county split.

Yes, there's a serious VRA issue with the new NC-01, let alone the stricter state level standards the court imposed.

[Skill and Chance]

This is pointless. The SCONC will flip anyway and republicans will draw another gerrymander mid decade

There’s no downside for us; why not fight it in court and see what we can get?

This.  It's also unconstitutional in NC to redraw the state legislative districts mid-decade, so if either of those maps get thrown out, the changes will stick.  Dems could plausibly flip a chamber over the course of the decade.

Did they explicitly forbid it? If not, this will be up to the likely GOP SC in 2022.

It says the process is done at the first legislative session after the census is released. 

Have you checked TX, GA, NV constitutions? I believe such language should be there as well. I am curious which state does not have this type of language.

TX and NV have this language for the legislative districts.  Georgia’s language is a bit more open.

Mid-decade legislative redistricting is clearly allowed in GA, as they made some minor changes through the normal legislative process in the late 2010's without a court ordering it. 

[Skill and Chance]

This has been a disaster this cycle for the GOP

On the Margin

Midterms have never been determined by redistricting

It hasn't determined which party had a majority, but there is a substantial difference between an R+15-20 majority and an R+30 majority.

This could make it far easier for Democrats to take back the House in 2024.

NC gop will certainly do a mid decade redraw for 2023 unless the court doesn't flip.

How safe would the R majorities in the state legislature be, though?  They literally read efficiency gap into the state constitution!

Also, worth noting that mid-decade redraws for state legislative maps aren't allowed in NC, so whatever legislative maps result from this process are for the whole decade.

I suppose they could go to SCOTUS with the "independent state legislature" argument since congressional maps are for federal elections.  A favorable ruling would give them back control of NC, OH, and AZ and also throw out the rules in FL, but it would also give Dems a chance to draw 49 67% Biden districts in CA and the NY courts would lose their ability to block the gerrymander there.  It would also result in immediate Dem control of WA and CO redistricting and a probable mid-decade Dem gerrymander in VA.

[Skill and Chance]

No matter, we will surely impeach those radical judges. Poor idiots, did they really think they could get away with it?

Republicans insisted on leaving redistricting to the states and rejected every federal reform proposal for a decade.  If they don't like the results, they are welcome to send at least 10 US Senators to the negotiating table at any time.

[Skill and Chance]

Because dumping independent commissions wouldn't hurt Democrats, I doubt SCOTUS will do it now. If such a case is raised then they'll either not take it (most likely) or come up with some esoteric reasoning as to why they're not really legal but also why they can't be overturned now like Scalia did.

It would hurt Democrats significantly if they extended it so far that governors couldn't veto.

[Skill and Chance]

Not a fan of this decision.  I'm for court oversight of gerrymandering, but they just made up a new standard out of thin air that contradicts what they approved 2 years ago.  This isn't like OH where the legislature plainly ignored the text and intent of the commission amendment the voters just passed.  They are making it up as they go along.