North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[kwabbit]

My first attempt at NC Fair map. Came out ok I think, but COI could probably be paid more attention. I don't know how Black districts can be secured; there are plenty of Black voters, but there does not densely concentrated for a majority Black district.

[kwabbit]

So like for a “fair map” how do we feel about county splits? I try to avoid them whenever possible (which is part of the reason for my 2/7 split.) I noticed at kwabbit’s map there’s a lot of county splits, but still a good map.

I usually don't like county splits, but NC would be a mess without them. Sometimes you get favorable setups where you can make no split districts, but in NC a least split map is going to be hideous. Like I distinctly wanted to avoid districts that were too 'long' for the sake of avoiding county splits.

[kwabbit]

Is it just me, or is there not very much difference between a fair maps and gerrymanders in NC? I feel like a fair map would likely be 9 R 5 D and I'm having trouble drawing a reasonable R gerrymander that's 10 R 4 D even.

[kwabbit]

Is it just me, or is there not very much difference between a fair maps and gerrymanders in NC? I feel like a fair map would likely be 9 R 5 D and I'm having trouble drawing a reasonable R gerrymander that's 10 R 4 D even.

The map I posted above is proof that it's likelier that a fair map would have 6 D seats as opposed to 5.

I see what you did now. I had a previously drawn map that I legitimately couldn't tell if I drew it fair or a light R gerry. I don't know if this is an NC no no but I repeatedly draw a tendril into Wake for NC-01 to pick up the Black voters there, likely diluting Wake and preventing it from supporting 3 dem seats.

[kwabbit]

If you honestly think that is why the Democrats in then states do that. Then you are fooling yourself.

I’m not saying it’s the only reason. But it was definitely republicans that started the modern gerrymandering war with the old Texas, Louisiana, Florida maps of the 2000s & 2010s. Democrats also are playing in this, but we’re the ones trying to end it.

I think you are forgetting what Democrats did in NC for years. Republicans in NC at least are making maps that are too crazy

...back when the Democratic party in states like NC and TX was still led by white conservatives. You may not be aware that a decade ago, Republicans saw gerrymandering as a necessary tool to achieve power, while the people advocating for commissions and independent redistricting were Democrats. Good government and independent redistricting are liberal priorities. After Republicans used gerrymandering to lock up state legislatures and Congress, many liberals said Inks this, let's go for the jugular, too.

NC and Ohio actually have the Republicans gerrymandering aggressively, but so far this cycle Dems have arguably been more aggressive than Republicans. Illinois and Oregon Dems both did near maximal gerrymanders, NY seems to be on that path, while Indiana Republicans avoided making IN-01 a swing or R seat when they easily could've, same with NE Republicans and Omaha.

[kwabbit]

NC 7-7

This would probably be 9-5 in 2022, but would be 8-6 or 7-7 in 2024 and long-term. There are non-horrendous ways to draw a 7-7 map, but it seems as though they will try to make the ugliest possible map for any certain partisan breakdown.

[kwabbit]

Are there any grounds to strike down the new map for VRA violations? Black voters are cracked basically anywhere they exist. If the NC Dems want a court gerrymander why not get Persily or someone else who's not trash at drawing maps. 7-7 is possible without a hideous map. I was expecting that a court that struck down the original map for being too partisan wouldn't just pick a different terrible map engineered with partisan intent.

[kwabbit]

No? If the 2016 map wasn't struck federally for tri cracking the Triad I don't see how this would get struck.

For the Charlotte area perhaps? It removes a lot of the Black population from Adam's district for obvious partisan purposes. Alma Adams will win because of incumbency, but it's likely that the next nominee from her district will be White.

NC has a lot of edge cases for the VRA. You could draw a lot of 40% Black districts but no majority districts unless you bring back the snakes.

[kwabbit]

On the first map my guess is there’s favorable R sorting in Pitt County and NC-01 is about Biden + 45!

The second map appears to pull NC-01 further south into Wayne County and is probably about Biden + 2

Buncombe is apparently split in one map but not another.

Ye I saw that too. Shows at least some NC Rs are scared about Asheville flipping NC-11 long term since there’s a pretty natural Trump + 11ish config for NC-11 and Trump + 11 should generally be sufficient imo.

Cawthorn could have lost in 2022. I believe the seat was single digits for Budd and Cawthorn was more radioactive than someone like Boebert. Even if they have a generic R now, the idea of it flipping in a good Dem year is not unreasonable.