North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[S019]

My unpopular opinion is that the 5-2 court becoming a 4-3 one doesn't change much here, I'd expect all D seats to be preserved and probably one additional D seat (likely in the Sandhills) on a map handed down from the court.

This is a rough idea of what they could do: https://davesredistricting.org/join/ec2e10ca-645b-43d7-87d4-20241b263810, the county borders on this map obviously need to be cleaned up, but I don't have the luxury of splitting precincts for population equivalency (so I need to awkwardly pick up precincts to get population equivalency), while the drawers will (also this makes the new seat a tossup seat spanning multiple metros, which is an approach I don't think they'll take, but then again this is a rough idea)

[S019]

https://twitter.com/lekhashupeck/status/1445808307009204227

Looks like the first draft congressional map is 11-3, though who knows if it will stay that way.

looks eerily similar in some ways to the leaked "draft" that we got a while back. Anyways, hopefully the courts can de-gerrymander this horrendous monstrosity.

[S019]

That's definitely 11-3,  I doubt cracking NC-1 would survive in the court.   

Weird they're putting Watauga into NC-11 though.

Cracking NC-6 was expected all along,  NC Republicans and all.

Uh in that image it looks like NC-6 survives though you have to look closely

No, we have Youtube videos of the NC leg stream where this came from, they took Greensboro out of the 6th and shoved into some rural seat

[S019]

That's definitely 11-3,  I doubt cracking NC-1 would survive in the court.   

Weird they're putting Watauga into NC-11 though.

Cracking NC-6 was expected all along,  NC Republicans and all.

Uh in that image it looks like NC-6 survives though you have to look closely

No, we have Youtube videos of the NC leg stream where this came from, they took Greensboro out of the 6th and shoved into some rural seat

Link?

Well they privatized them, probably because they didn't want Dems going back into them and finding material for a lawsuit, but that's where this person got the map from, you have to watch it in real time.

[S019]

So, the Youtube video containing Daniel's gerrymander from yesterday is indeed back, this makes me think, they upload the videos, the day after the session: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ATyQFLvtoU, so after some looking, the streams are on the General Assembly's Channel, but then they get deleted and/or privatized and the recordings are on the redistricting channel.

Also I'll note that the NC GOP's software does not give them partisan information or racial information, I highly doubt they'll get away with cracking one of NC-01/NC-12, but it seems like they could try to crack both, I wouldn't rule it out, though it'd lead to an immediate lawsuit, which is why I'd be surprised if they went this way, it's very possible that they're just seeing what the max is, that they can do.

If Republicans are really wanting to do elaborate gerrymanders, why not something like this?

This is a pretty ingenious gerrymander and also has the advantage of making NC-01 into a true black seat, which greatly weakens the legal case for racial gerrymandering. There would still be a partisan gerrymandering suit which would likely go in the Democrats' favor if it got there before November 2022, which it likely would.

[S019]

This is pointless. The SCONC will flip anyway and republicans will draw another gerrymander mid decade

There’s no downside for us; why not fight it in court and see what we can get?

This.  It's also unconstitutional in NC to redraw the state legislative districts mid-decade, so if either of those maps get thrown out, the changes will stick.  Dems could plausibly flip a chamber over the course of the decade.

The question is what should be changed in the state senate maps for example other than the  NE senate districts. If the court starts demanding the NC GOP just start gerrymandering certain legislative districts in favor of the Democrats they might just go the impeachment route.


A lot of the legislative lawsuits is merely sticking everything they can. It really does risk a crisis.

well seats like that 29 look quite bizarre, though I still expect the GOP to come out with a map that'd give them House and Senate majorities after the lawsuit, on the congressional level, the big sticking point is ofc NC-01 with a valid argument that it has been illegally diluted.