North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Does anyone know when they are going to start the redraw?

If I had to guess they’re gonna wait as long as possible with the court cases in every other southern state

[Sol]

They have to do it before filing, so sometime in the next few months.

[Coastal Elitist]

Surprised no one saw this but maps are expected the week of October 9. Public hearings end today https://www.wral.com/story/nc-redistricting-gets-underway-with-voter-feedback-less-transparency/21069636/

[Coastal Elitist]

I doubt they'll do it but it's not that hard to make a strong 12-2 map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/a2ff7f34-4ff6-4295-855d-9def57f9ce87

[Sol]

I doubt they'll do it but it's not that hard to make a strong 12-2 map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/a2ff7f34-4ff6-4295-855d-9def57f9ce87

I think Republicans would wisely be too scared to only concede one Democratic seat in the Triangle, but I suspect the rest of the map will look similar to this, with possible variation in NC-01.

[Sol]

The state legislature is worth keeping an eye on here too; the Congressional map is fairly predictable but the state legislative map less so.

Under current interpretations of NC state law, the legislature is required to minimize county splits to the maximum degree possible, a rule which sometimes results in kind of awkward districts but which severely constrains gerrymandering. If the legislature colors within these lines, the maps will be certainly gerrymandered (especially in the House) but Democrats would likely still be within striking distance of breaking the supermajority in a good year, even if it's a bit harder.

However, given the current Republican majority in the State Supreme Court, it seems likely to me that they may jettison these rules and draw freely with the understanding that the court would back them up. In that case, it would lock in a Republican supermajority with 100% certainty for the rest of the decade.

[Mr.Phips]

The state legislature is worth keeping an eye on here too; the Congressional map is fairly predictable but the state legislative map less so.

Under current interpretations of NC state law, the legislature is required to minimize county splits to the maximum degree possible, a rule which sometimes results in kind of awkward districts but which severely constrains gerrymandering. If the legislature colors within these lines, the maps will be certainly gerrymandered (especially in the House) but Democrats would likely still be within striking distance of breaking the supermajority in a good year, even if it's a bit harder.

However, given the current Republican majority in the State Supreme Court, it seems likely to me that they may jettison these rules and draw freely with the understanding that the court would back them up. In that case, it would lock in a Republican supermajority with 100% certainty for the rest of the decade.

Keep in mind that it was originally a Republican state Supreme Court that came up with county cluster rule.

[Tekken_Guy]

The state legislature is worth keeping an eye on here too; the Congressional map is fairly predictable but the state legislative map less so.

Under current interpretations of NC state law, the legislature is required to minimize county splits to the maximum degree possible, a rule which sometimes results in kind of awkward districts but which severely constrains gerrymandering. If the legislature colors within these lines, the maps will be certainly gerrymandered (especially in the House) but Democrats would likely still be within striking distance of breaking the supermajority in a good year, even if it's a bit harder.

However, given the current Republican majority in the State Supreme Court, it seems likely to me that they may jettison these rules and draw freely with the understanding that the court would back them up. In that case, it would lock in a Republican supermajority with 100% certainty for the rest of the decade.

I could see Republicans shore up the seats they currently have and concede the ones they don’t to Democrats, with a few exceptions (the Cabarrus County D seat, for instance).

In the senate the toughest think to do is shore up the New Hanover senate seat. The only competitive D-held seat, the one partially in Wake can’t be made much redder than it currently is.

[Sol]

The state legislature is worth keeping an eye on here too; the Congressional map is fairly predictable but the state legislative map less so.

Under current interpretations of NC state law, the legislature is required to minimize county splits to the maximum degree possible, a rule which sometimes results in kind of awkward districts but which severely constrains gerrymandering. If the legislature colors within these lines, the maps will be certainly gerrymandered (especially in the House) but Democrats would likely still be within striking distance of breaking the supermajority in a good year, even if it's a bit harder.

However, given the current Republican majority in the State Supreme Court, it seems likely to me that they may jettison these rules and draw freely with the understanding that the court would back them up. In that case, it would lock in a Republican supermajority with 100% certainty for the rest of the decade.

I could see Republicans shore up the seats they currently have and concede the ones they don’t to Democrats, with a few exceptions (the Cabarrus County D seat, for instance).

In the senate the toughest think to do is shore up the New Hanover senate seat. The only competitive D-held seat, the one partially in Wake can’t be made much redder than it currently is.

The challenge with that approach is that there's kind of a push and pull with it. Cabarrus is a good example; you can draw it so that Diamond Staton-Williams's district becomes Republican, but there are a lot of 55-45 R areas that mean you're probably just drawing two lean R seats instead of one tossup and one likely R seat.

In the House there's more room to rig--the GOP control of the NCSC means we probably get an Asheville pack, you can probably split Chatham and draw out Reives, boost R margins in suburban Guilford seats, maybe tighten lean D seats in Mecklenburg and Wake, etc. But that's only a few seats in practice, still enough for a Dem rebound since in most cases these seats are going to stay competitive-ish.

[I’m not Stu]

Will the new House map be 11-3 or 12-2, not even a 10-4 map?

[Tekken_Guy]

The state legislature is worth keeping an eye on here too; the Congressional map is fairly predictable but the state legislative map less so.

Under current interpretations of NC state law, the legislature is required to minimize county splits to the maximum degree possible, a rule which sometimes results in kind of awkward districts but which severely constrains gerrymandering. If the legislature colors within these lines, the maps will be certainly gerrymandered (especially in the House) but Democrats would likely still be within striking distance of breaking the supermajority in a good year, even if it's a bit harder.

However, given the current Republican majority in the State Supreme Court, it seems likely to me that they may jettison these rules and draw freely with the understanding that the court would back them up. In that case, it would lock in a Republican supermajority with 100% certainty for the rest of the decade.

I could see Republicans shore up the seats they currently have and concede the ones they don’t to Democrats, with a few exceptions (the Cabarrus County D seat, for instance).

In the senate the toughest think to do is shore up the New Hanover senate seat. The only competitive D-held seat, the one partially in Wake can’t be made much redder than it currently is.

The challenge with that approach is that there's kind of a push and pull with it. Cabarrus is a good example; you can draw it so that Diamond Staton-Williams's district becomes Republican, but there are a lot of 55-45 R areas that mean you're probably just drawing two lean R seats instead of one tossup and one likely R seat.

In the House there's more room to rig--the GOP control of the NCSC means we probably get an Asheville pack, you can probably split Chatham and draw out Reives, boost R margins in suburban Guilford seats, maybe tighten lean D seats in Mecklenburg and Wake, etc. But that's only a few seats in practice, still enough for a Dem rebound since in most cases these seats are going to stay competitive-ish.

Also the house has a lot of competitive seats in the NE that Biden won but are held by Republicans, and while Trump might flip them, he also might not.

In the senate it’ll be hard to gerrymander out Applewhite in Fayetteville without endangering McInnis as well. The one D seat in the black belt around Greenville probably has to stay because unpacking it weakens the Hanig and Newton seats. I can’t imagine how Guilford can be reduced to one D seat and Buncombe to 0. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I need to try my hand at gerrymandering the state legislature without nesting. I'll show y'all the results.

[Coastal Elitist]

It's not that hard to tweak the current house map and get more republican seats. You can pick up one in Buncombe, one in Cabarrus, one in Cumberland, one using Caswell and Pierson counties and potentially one in Wake even though it is weak. Also they could try drawing out the minority leader and shoring up weaker seats in Almance and Forsyth. You can make 78 Budd seats: https://davesredistricting.org/join/901c3d69-36ff-4dcf-8870-7ebc7f0dfe46

[Roll Roons]

Are new draft maps still expected next week?

[Sol]

It's not that hard to tweak the current house map and get more republican seats. You can pick up one in Buncombe, one in Cabarrus, one in Cumberland, one using Caswell and Pierson counties and potentially one in Wake even though it is weak. Also they could try drawing out the minority leader and shoring up weaker seats in Almance and Forsyth. You can make 78 Budd seats: https://davesredistricting.org/join/901c3d69-36ff-4dcf-8870-7ebc7f0dfe46

This isn't in compliance with cluster rule fyi. That may be something Republicans do, but in that case you can gerrymander even more efficiently than that.

[Coastal Elitist]

It's not that hard to tweak the current house map and get more republican seats. You can pick up one in Buncombe, one in Cabarrus, one in Cumberland, one using Caswell and Pierson counties and potentially one in Wake even though it is weak. Also they could try drawing out the minority leader and shoring up weaker seats in Almance and Forsyth. You can make 78 Budd seats: https://davesredistricting.org/join/901c3d69-36ff-4dcf-8870-7ebc7f0dfe46

This isn't in compliance with cluster rule fyi. That may be something Republicans do, but in that case you can gerrymander even more efficiently than that.

How is it not?

[Stuart98]

It's not that hard to tweak the current house map and get more republican seats. You can pick up one in Buncombe, one in Cabarrus, one in Cumberland, one using Caswell and Pierson counties and potentially one in Wake even though it is weak. Also they could try drawing out the minority leader and shoring up weaker seats in Almance and Forsyth. You can make 78 Budd seats: https://davesredistricting.org/join/901c3d69-36ff-4dcf-8870-7ebc7f0dfe46

This isn't in compliance with cluster rule fyi. That may be something Republicans do, but in that case you can gerrymander even more efficiently than that.

How is it not?

County cluster rules in NC, you can't deviate from these except in three greyed out sets of counties which each have two (and only two) possible clusters. Seats that span multiple county clusters are illegal.

[Oryxslayer]

It's not that hard to tweak the current house map and get more republican seats. You can pick up one in Buncombe, one in Cabarrus, one in Cumberland, one using Caswell and Pierson counties and potentially one in Wake even though it is weak. Also they could try drawing out the minority leader and shoring up weaker seats in Almance and Forsyth. You can make 78 Budd seats: https://davesredistricting.org/join/901c3d69-36ff-4dcf-8870-7ebc7f0dfe46

This isn't in compliance with cluster rule fyi. That may be something Republicans do, but in that case you can gerrymander even more efficiently than that.

How is it not?

County cluster rules in NC, you can't deviate from these except in three greyed out sets of counties which each have two (and only two) possible clusters. Seats that span multiple county clusters are illegal.

IIRC there is a asterisk to this though. If deemed necessary for equitable levels of minority access a court could order a merger two unitary clusters into a single group that enables an access seat. There were a few selective maps of clusters drawn with this intention last time around.

But the Dem courts maintained the nesting rules (among other redistricting decisions that seemingly helped dems but hurt minority groups), and the GOP ones won't exactly be bailing out the Democrats. So best to just assume absolute adherence to these nesting guidelines is required.

[Vern]

Are new draft maps still expected next week?

As far as we know yes, but everything is being done behind closed doors, so who know what might happen.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone think there's a chance Rs go for smtg like 9-2-3 map, where they try to keep Greensboro whole, since before that was sort of the biggest liability in their gerrymander? You can keep Guilford County whole and still make a Biden + 1 seat that'd have a very good chance of electing an R. They could also just cede NC-06 to Dems, sort of like NC-2020 map.

Also, with Donalds being a strong incumbent and Milligan, will be interesting to see how the GOP handles NC-01. The current config is about as blue as the district can get without doing smtg weird. It's pretty easy to make into a tossup or even R-leaning seat, but Rs might not want to do that and risk a lawsuit, especially after seeing AL.

Also curious to see if they split Fayetteville down the middle. Their old gerrymander didn't and it was one of the weaker R districts on the map. My guess is they'll keep it whole again, to help avoid litigation and cause that region of NC has been getting redder so the seat should be fine long term. The current map cracks Fayetteville though which might give the GOP a permission structure of sorts.

NC-13 and NC-14 are the only 2 Dem seats I'm basically certain are eliminated..

[Sol]

Anyone think there's a chance Rs go for smtg like 9-2-3 map, where they try to keep Greensboro whole, since before that was sort of the biggest liability in their gerrymander? You can keep Guilford County whole and still make a Biden + 1 seat that'd have a very good chance of electing an R. They could also just cede NC-06 to Dems, sort of like NC-2020 map.

Also, with Donalds being a strong incumbent and Milligan, will be interesting to see how the GOP handles NC-01. The current config is about as blue as the district can get without doing smtg weird. It's pretty easy to make into a tossup or even R-leaning seat, but Rs might not want to do that and risk a lawsuit, especially after seeing AL.

Also curious to see if they split Fayetteville down the middle. Their old gerrymander didn't and it was one of the weaker R districts on the map. My guess is they'll keep it whole again, to help avoid litigation and cause that region of NC has been getting redder so the seat should be fine long term. The current map cracks Fayetteville though which might give the GOP a permission structure of sorts.

NC-13 and NC-14 are the only 2 Dem seats I'm basically certain are eliminated..

I'm not as looped into NC politics these days, but I strongly doubt they keep NC-06. That's not their style, and chopping up the Triad is a relatively secure move relative to gerrymandering further east, which is more tenous.

I floated a map a while back on here which drew out Foushee instead of Manning; while that's an interesting hypothetical and actually doable-ish, there's no reason for them to do it unless the have a strong preference for Manning, which seems doubtful.

No idea what they do on NC-01.

[Sol]

I made a map of the State House under the county cluster rule to model what Republicans might do with a friendly court.

link



The tl;dr is that this only gets Republicans to 72 seats, with them having to compete in several D-swinging metro areas where Democrats have tended to overperform recently. Something like this is probably the best Republicans can get in the House, unless they decide to go out on a limb and draw illegally.

Some explanations:

Asheville:

Asheville is the first of a few areas where Republicans have to make tradeoffs. Under the cluster rule, Buncombe County can only have 3 seats. In the past few years, Asheville has been sliced up because of favorable court rulings, but since imo the reasoning is a bit spurious I suspect the newly R court will reverse that precedent and allow for a huge Democratic pack in Asheville. Outside of Asheville, the county is quite swingy, which means that you can draw two swing seats or one D and one R seat. I opted for the latter.

Charlotte:

Mecklenburg is a cluster to itself, while Cabarrus gets lumped in with some counties to the north. You can draw two very narrow Trump seats in Meck (the two purples), though both are quite close, especially the "save Tricia Cotham" seat in the SE.

Cabarrus is another example of these tradeoffs. All the seats in Cabarrus are quite robustly Republican, but given the swings in that part of the world it's possible it could be a dummymander. If I'm a Republican conceding a swing seat here might make more sense.

Eastern Triad

It feels like it should be possible for Republicans to wring an extra seat out of Guilford County, but it isn't really; there's a lot of Republican voters locked up in 60-40 precincts in NW Greensboro. Still Republicans get two Trump seats here, a boon since iirc Biden carried all the current seats in Guilford.

Alamance is a similar tradeoff to Cabarrus, where I've drawn two safe-ish R seats that could be very dicey in 2028.


Republicans wring an extra seat out of Wake (dark brown). Both it and light blue are likely R, on the edge of safe. I considered trading territory between blue and orange, since Fuquay-Varina has been swinging left while the more ruralish areas east of Holly Springs remain more Republican.

Chatham County is part of a huge cluster with a bunch of random Piedmont counties, which lets one draw out Robert Reives. Orange in northern Durham county is a lean D seat, albeit one which Democrats would probably never lose given patterns of institutional strength.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's a sort of updated version of Republicans original gerrymander that tries to account for recent shifts and clean some things up around the margins. I think the biggest question is how risky does the NC-GOP want to be with NC-01? (Since changing NC-01 too much could spark a lawsuit).

Especially after seeing the 2022, some have argued the GOP should do more to shore up NC-11, but honestly I think Trump + 10 should be sufficient and cracking doing some sort of arm into Asheville is just going to be too awkward for the benefit it provides.

[Mr.Phips]

Here's a sort of updated version of Republicans original gerrymander that tries to account for recent shifts and clean some things up around the margins. I think the biggest question is how risky does the NC-GOP want to be with NC-01? (Since changing NC-01 too much could spark a lawsuit).

Especially after seeing the 2022, some have argued the GOP should do more to shore up NC-11, but honestly I think Trump + 10 should be sufficient and cracking doing some sort of arm into Asheville is just going to be too awkward for the benefit it provides.

If only the state Supreme Court had used the county cluster rule for the congressional districts as well.  Seeing Guilford county keep getting split makes my head explode.

[Oryxslayer]

Senate statement says maps next week, votes potentially in in the week following that.

They are moving fast enough that in theory there could be a VRA vote dilution PI appeal claim could be made against the 1st if it is made Whiter - though IMO it's getting Durham back like in 2016 since this is post-Milligan.