North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why would Milligan prevent the GOP from gerrymandering NC-01 out of existence? It is currently drawn basically to maximize Black population, and it's still only 41% Black by VAP. Obviously it is a Black performing district (for now) but still, couldn't North Carolina just say, "well, there is no minority population sizeable and compact enough to be a majority in a compact single member district here, therefore Gingles prong 1 fails and this district is not protected by Section 2"? I think you'd probably have a stronger case arguing that gerrymandering NC-01 out of existence is a racial gerrymander impermissible under the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments. I think this case would be very strong, but it would be more analogous to the South Carolina redistricting challenge pending before the Supreme Court than to Milligan.

You can draw a more black seat, but VRA seats don’t require black majority, just one that lets black voters elect the candidate of their choosing.

What if the black % is kept simillar, but exchanging Greenville (which actually has some liberal whites) for some more conservative small towns and rurals? This can push NC-01 to be a right trending narrow Biden or even narrowly Trump seat while still being like 40-41% black. Would this be illegal?

[Sol]

Since I'm a masochist, I've been playing around with a maximalist NCGOP gerrymander.

The landscape for NC redistricting post-Allen v. Milligan is interesting -- Republicans have pretty much obliterated most previous constraints on their gerrymandering, except now they can't get rid of NC-01 like they wanted. I figured they might go with a map which shores up NC-01 instead.

link



It's 10-3-1, with NC-06 as a narrow Trump district, functionally Lean R.

You could probably tighten this up more, especially with 14.

That south Wake seat is a little too close for comfort for Republicans. They’d probably pull it out into more rural areas like going deeper into Wayne County.

Agreed, though I didn't shore it up because it'd likely cause a domino effect that would make the map uglier and I wanted to draw something clean but fairly insidious since that's been the GOP's M.O. in NC since the 2016 map.

[Torie]

Why would Milligan prevent the GOP from gerrymandering NC-01 out of existence? It is currently drawn basically to maximize Black population, and it's still only 41% Black by VAP. Obviously it is a Black performing district (for now) but still, couldn't North Carolina just say, "well, there is no minority population sizeable and compact enough to be a majority in a compact single member district here, therefore Gingles prong 1 fails and this district is not protected by Section 2"? I think you'd probably have a stronger case arguing that gerrymandering NC-01 out of existence is a racial gerrymander impermissible under the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments. I think this case would be very strong, but it would be more analogous to the South Carolina redistricting challenge pending before the Supreme Court than to Milligan.

You can draw a more black seat, but VRA seats don’t require black majority, just one that lets black voters elect the candidate of their choosing.

What if the black % is kept simillar, but exchanging Greenville (which actually has some liberal whites) for some more conservative small towns and rurals? This can push NC-01 to be a right trending narrow Biden or even narrowly Trump seat while still being like 40-41% black. Would this be illegal?

If Gingles requires the drawing of a 50% BVAP CD that takes in some urban black precincts in the Triangle, then assuming a swing CD is deemed not a black performing CD (why would it?), the answer is most probably no. The issue is whether getting a NE area CD in NC up to 50% BVAP is a map that looks pretty enough to the Court and gets enough neutral metrics points. The answer is probably yes (the Gingles trigger map in AL is not all that perfect), and a Pub gerrymander is overall going to look a heck of a lot worse in comparison. Justice Roberts would go into a feeding frenzy.

The only out is if a 50% BVAP CD can be drawn using reasonably neutral metrics that is swing. If so, that would probably pass muster. 50% should be a safe harbor unless games are played (e.g., packing in prisons where nobody votes).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why would Milligan prevent the GOP from gerrymandering NC-01 out of existence? It is currently drawn basically to maximize Black population, and it's still only 41% Black by VAP. Obviously it is a Black performing district (for now) but still, couldn't North Carolina just say, "well, there is no minority population sizeable and compact enough to be a majority in a compact single member district here, therefore Gingles prong 1 fails and this district is not protected by Section 2"? I think you'd probably have a stronger case arguing that gerrymandering NC-01 out of existence is a racial gerrymander impermissible under the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments. I think this case would be very strong, but it would be more analogous to the South Carolina redistricting challenge pending before the Supreme Court than to Milligan.

You can draw a more black seat, but VRA seats don’t require black majority, just one that lets black voters elect the candidate of their choosing.

What if the black % is kept simillar, but exchanging Greenville (which actually has some liberal whites) for some more conservative small towns and rurals? This can push NC-01 to be a right trending narrow Biden or even narrowly Trump seat while still being like 40-41% black. Would this be illegal?

If Gingles requires the drawing of a 50% BVAP CD that takes in some urban black precincts in the Triangle, then assuming a swing CD is deemed not a black performing CD (why would it?), the answer is most probably no. The issue is whether getting a NE area CD in NC up to 50% BVAP is a map that looks pretty enough to the Court and gets enough neutral metrics points. The answer is probably yes (the Gingles trigger map in AL is not all that perfect), and a Pub gerrymander is overall going to look a heck of a lot worse in comparison. Justice Roberts would go into a feeding frenzy.

The only out is if a 50% BVAP CD can be drawn using reasonably neutral metrics that is swing. If so, that would probably pass muster. 50% should be a safe harbor unless games are played (e.g., packing in prisons where nobody votes).

Yeah for NC-01, I don't think a reasonably neutral 50% seat can be drawn using neutral metrics; you either have to dip down into both Durham and Raleigh to grab their black populations but with skinny arm into both to avoid picking up too much white population, or if you don't want to go into the metros having a district that has an awful arm down to Fayetteville, which visually just looks insane. Even then it's just *barely*. Someone's already shown the Raleigh-Durham northeast black belt population.

Here's the purely "rural" option, which is equally as hideous. 50.2% Black VAP, so a very small room for error to re-arrange a few precincts in the name of cleanliness ig, but it'll still look hideous.



NC really sucks in terms of VRA because proportionally black voters should get 3 districts, and while you can draw 2.5 or even 3 if you really try black performing districts, it's really hard to get a district actually above 50% without doing some crazy stuff.

[Nyvin]

Yeah for NC-01, I don't think a reasonably neutral 50% seat can be drawn using neutral metrics; you either have to dip down into both Durham and Raleigh to grab their black populations but with skinny arm into both to avoid picking up too much white population, or if you don't want to go into the metros having a district that has an awful arm down to Fayetteville, which visually just looks insane. Even then it's just *barely*. Someone's already shown the Raleigh-Durham northeast black belt population.

Here's the purely "rural" option, which is equally as hideous. 50.2% Black VAP, so a very small room for error to re-arrange a few precincts in the name of cleanliness ig, but it'll still look hideous.



NC really sucks in terms of VRA because proportionally black voters should get 3 districts, and while you can draw 2.5 or even 3 if you really try black performing districts, it's really hard to get a district actually above 50% without doing some crazy stuff.

Well, this was an accepted district in NC until 2017 -



So it's not all THAT crazy I guess.

This was on the map that Republicans were going crazy over saying the State Court "wildly overstepped it's authority" in striking down.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean first off you can improve the all-rural NC-01's appearance and general form, especially if you take NC-03 and NC-07 into consideration. Certainly neater than anything drawn in 2011.



Second, in light of Milligan there is is a decent chance something like this is drawn, maybe less obtuse but still keeping the general idea. The NC GOP's maps always  have to find a way to deal with Fayetteville and this is a new option that doesn't involve pizza-slicing the city and county. The justification is obviously that the 2022 results suggest the seat is not safe as a minority access seat under a renewed Section 2 Gingles, so the seat must collect the scattered smaller cities to in the south of the State's Black Belt.

The other thing this facilitates in the creation of that 'third' Black access seat seemingly missing in the Triangle via the earmuff/yin-yang design. Because lets be honest, the courts map could have had the same electoral result without mishandling minority precincts (Raleigh, W-S, Wayne, Fayetteville, etc) and dividing them up between seats like it was 2001.  If you have to concede two seats in the region, doing these Earmuffs forces the triangle's geography to favor the GOP in future redistrictings, even if they don't hold power.

[Torie]

Somebody or several bodies needs to read the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

[GALeftist]

Somebody or several bodies needs to be the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

Yeah, I am with you on this. NC-01 has been litigated to hell and back, particularly in front of the Supreme Court; they have consistently rejected variations of the district that would be >50% black as not just not required by Section 2 but impermissible racial gerrymanders (and I tend to agree). The NCGOP may very well elect to keep NC-01 around, but if they do, it won't be (directly) because of Milligan. It will be some combination of 1. They don't mind Don Davis and 2. They don't want to roll the dice on a 14th Amendment racial gerrymandering lawsuit (as opposed to a VRA lawsuit).

[Mr.Phips]

Somebody or several bodies needs to read the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

Can we stop with the splitting of Guilford and Forsyth counties?  I understand that they don’t need to be put in the same district, but at least keep them whole.  Something like the 2016 map is fine in this area, but just keep Guilford whole this time.

[Sol]

Somebody or several bodies needs to read the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

Can we stop with the splitting of Guilford and Forsyth counties?  I understand that they don’t need to be put in the same district, but at least keep them whole.  Something like the 2016 map is fine in this area, but just keep Guilford whole this time.

If you want to do an effective Republican gerrymander splitting Guilford is basically mandatory.

[Torie]

Somebody or several bodies needs to read the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

Can we stop with the splitting of Guilford and Forsyth counties?  I understand that they don’t need to be put in the same district, but at least keep them whole.  Something like the 2016 map is fine in this area, but just keep Guilford whole this time.

That is what a Pubmander requires alas. There is no escape. Guilford needs to be split to draw a Gingles CD as well.

[Sol]

Somebody or several bodies needs to read the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

Can we stop with the splitting of Guilford and Forsyth counties?  I understand that they don’t need to be put in the same district, but at least keep them whole.  Something like the 2016 map is fine in this area, but just keep Guilford whole this time.

That is what a Pubmander requires alas. There is no escape. Guilford needs to be split to draw a Gingles CD as well.

It's my understanding that under Cooper v. Harris NC-01 doesn't need to be over 50% BVAP to be performing, and in fact said iteration of the district was ruled to be a violation of the VRA by everyone on the court, including the conservatives.

In fact, if you want to draw a Republican gerrymander, giving NC-01 white liberals in Durham is way more useful than dipping into Greensboro, because the eastern half of the state is much less Republican, making it harder to pack Democrats. Meanwhile it's pretty easy to sink the Triad with hyper-Republican communities in the Piedmont and Foothills.

[Mr.Phips]

Somebody or several bodies needs to read the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

Can we stop with the splitting of Guilford and Forsyth counties?  I understand that they don’t need to be put in the same district, but at least keep them whole.  Something like the 2016 map is fine in this area, but just keep Guilford whole this time.

If you want to do an effective Republican gerrymander splitting Guilford is basically mandatory.

Another reason why the first order of business of Dems in their next trifecta needs to be to pass a national law mandating that counties and cities cannot be split unless a district(s) is a already fully contained within that county or city and the remainder doesn’t not have enough population to house another whole district.  Would solve the problem here and in Jacksonville FL and SLC Utah.

[Torie]

Somebody or several bodies needs to read the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

Can we stop with the splitting of Guilford and Forsyth counties?  I understand that they don’t need to be put in the same district, but at least keep them whole.  Something like the 2016 map is fine in this area, but just keep Guilford whole this time.

That is what a Pubmander requires alas. There is no escape. Guilford needs to be split to draw a Gingles CD as well.

It's my understanding that under Cooper v. Harris NC-01 doesn't need to be over 50% BVAP to be performing, and in fact said iteration of the district was ruled to be a violation of the VRA by everyone on the court, including the conservatives.

In fact, if you want to draw a Republican gerrymander, giving NC-01 white liberals in Durham is way more useful than dipping into Greensboro, because the eastern half of the state is much less Republican, making it harder to pack Democrats. Meanwhile it's pretty easy to sink the Triad with hyper-Republican communities in the Piedmont and Foothills.

You need the 50% number as one prong to trigger Gingles as you well know. if you can't draw it on a "compact" basis, then the VRA does not apply. The Pubs "should" just draw the Pubmander below, and if someone says VRA, say hey, court draw your Gingles CD (that horrible looking thing above), and we will ask Roberts and Kavanaugh to take a look at it.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/53a2e5ca-e6e9-44a2-93b8-cee2b10e80d1



The most aesthetic looking NC-01 will fall into the Pub’s lap in due course, maybe even in 2024.

[Sol]

Somebody or several bodies needs to read the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

Can we stop with the splitting of Guilford and Forsyth counties?  I understand that they don’t need to be put in the same district, but at least keep them whole.  Something like the 2016 map is fine in this area, but just keep Guilford whole this time.

That is what a Pubmander requires alas. There is no escape. Guilford needs to be split to draw a Gingles CD as well.

It's my understanding that under Cooper v. Harris NC-01 doesn't need to be over 50% BVAP to be performing, and in fact said iteration of the district was ruled to be a violation of the VRA by everyone on the court, including the conservatives.

In fact, if you want to draw a Republican gerrymander, giving NC-01 white liberals in Durham is way more useful than dipping into Greensboro, because the eastern half of the state is much less Republican, making it harder to pack Democrats. Meanwhile it's pretty easy to sink the Triad with hyper-Republican communities in the Piedmont and Foothills.

You need the 50% number as one prong to trigger Gingles as you well know. if you can't draw it on a "compact" basis, then the VRA does not apply. The Pubs "should" just draw the Pubmander below, and if someone says VRA, say hey, court draw your Gingles CD (that horrible looking thing above), and we will ask Roberts and Kavanaugh to take a look at it.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/53a2e5ca-e6e9-44a2-93b8-cee2b10e80d1



The most aesthetic looking NC-01 will fall into the Pub’s lap in due course, maybe even in 2024.

I'm not a lawyer, but it seems that given Personhuballah v. Alcorn as well as Cooper there's a certain amount of precedent that would suggest that NC-01 should not be a pack of Black voters, while dilution also remains questionable.

I suppose if you're really dreaming of a legal fight, you could do that, and there's chance of winning, but that gets into the realpolitik of it as well. The 4th circuit is not likely to be sympathetic to the NC Republicans (unless they get favorable judges) and the Supreme Court may side with them but may just as easily punt as they have before.

Speaking to the NC political context, this is basically the best time to be an NC GOP redistricter in a while. The State Supreme Court is guaranteed to rubberstamp anything the NC Legislature draws, no matter how egregious, and in federal court partisan gerrymandering has been ruled non-justiciable. Racial gerrymandering is basically the only avenue to a plausible court challenge. If I'm an NC Republican, I'm not gambling my total control on flipping the first, especially when you can gerrymander an 11-3 or 10-3-1 map with "non-justiciable" ugliness.

[Torie]

Nothing in the current SCOTUS iteration of the VRA precludes dilution. That prong is dead. The only thing a hostile 4th Circuit could do is force the Gingles CD. I doubt that will happen, particularly with a NC-01 that looks so nice and pretty and compact and yeah, drawn hewing to neutral redistricting principles, that would need to be tossed into the dumpster.

[Stuart98]

Somebody or several bodies needs to read the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

Can we stop with the splitting of Guilford and Forsyth counties?  I understand that they don’t need to be put in the same district, but at least keep them whole.  Something like the 2016 map is fine in this area, but just keep Guilford whole this time.

If you want to do an effective Republican gerrymander splitting Guilford is basically mandatory.

Another reason why the first order of business of Dems in their next trifecta needs to be to pass a national law mandating that counties and cities cannot be split unless a district(s) is a already fully contained within that county or city and the remainder doesn’t not have enough population to house another whole district.  Would solve the problem here and in Jacksonville FL and SLC Utah.

This is the Ohio rule and we already know it doesn't solve the problem because, uh, Ohio. Counties are bad proxies for COI. Just require partisan proportionality based on contested federal races and opportunity districts, and a requirement that metro areas not be split if it's unnecessary to achieve the prior objectives.

[Mr.Phips]

Somebody or several bodies needs to read the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

Can we stop with the splitting of Guilford and Forsyth counties?  I understand that they don’t need to be put in the same district, but at least keep them whole.  Something like the 2016 map is fine in this area, but just keep Guilford whole this time.

If you want to do an effective Republican gerrymander splitting Guilford is basically mandatory.

Another reason why the first order of business of Dems in their next trifecta needs to be to pass a national law mandating that counties and cities cannot be split unless a district(s) is a already fully contained within that county or city and the remainder doesn’t not have enough population to house another whole district.  Would solve the problem here and in Jacksonville FL and SLC Utah.

This is the Ohio rule and we already know it doesn't solve the problem because, uh, Ohio. Counties are bad proxies for COI. Just require partisan proportionality based on contested federal races and opportunity districts, and a requirement that metro areas not be split if it's unnecessary to achieve the prior objectives.

No this isn’t the Ohio rule.  Ohio has needless exceptions to allow certain counties to be split and doesn’t have language requiring districts to be wholly contained within a city or county if population allows for it.

[Stuart98]

Somebody or several bodies needs to read the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

Can we stop with the splitting of Guilford and Forsyth counties?  I understand that they don’t need to be put in the same district, but at least keep them whole.  Something like the 2016 map is fine in this area, but just keep Guilford whole this time.

If you want to do an effective Republican gerrymander splitting Guilford is basically mandatory.

Another reason why the first order of business of Dems in their next trifecta needs to be to pass a national law mandating that counties and cities cannot be split unless a district(s) is a already fully contained within that county or city and the remainder doesn’t not have enough population to house another whole district.  Would solve the problem here and in Jacksonville FL and SLC Utah.

This is the Ohio rule and we already know it doesn't solve the problem because, uh, Ohio. Counties are bad proxies for COI. Just require partisan proportionality based on contested federal races and opportunity districts, and a requirement that metro areas not be split if it's unnecessary to achieve the prior objectives.

No this isn’t the Ohio rule.  Ohio has needless exceptions to allow certain counties to be split and doesn’t have language requiring districts to be wholly contained within a city or county if population allows for it.

POV: You banned North Carolina from unnecessary county and city splits (they drew a 9R-3D-2C map anyway)
 

You cannot solve most gerrymandering instances with splitting rules! If you've got the support to solve the few gerrymandering instances you can solve with splitting rules, you might as well go further and solve the rest of the gerrymandering cases as well!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Somebody or several bodies needs to read the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

Can we stop with the splitting of Guilford and Forsyth counties?  I understand that they don’t need to be put in the same district, but at least keep them whole.  Something like the 2016 map is fine in this area, but just keep Guilford whole this time.

If you want to do an effective Republican gerrymander splitting Guilford is basically mandatory.

Another reason why the first order of business of Dems in their next trifecta needs to be to pass a national law mandating that counties and cities cannot be split unless a district(s) is a already fully contained within that county or city and the remainder doesn’t not have enough population to house another whole district.  Would solve the problem here and in Jacksonville FL and SLC Utah.

This is the Ohio rule and we already know it doesn't solve the problem because, uh, Ohio. Counties are bad proxies for COI. Just require partisan proportionality based on contested federal races and opportunity districts, and a requirement that metro areas not be split if it's unnecessary to achieve the prior objectives.

In states like NV, MA, WI, WA etc you have to gerrymander to achieve Partisan proportionality

[Mr.Phips]

Somebody or several bodies needs to read the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

Can we stop with the splitting of Guilford and Forsyth counties?  I understand that they don’t need to be put in the same district, but at least keep them whole.  Something like the 2016 map is fine in this area, but just keep Guilford whole this time.

If you want to do an effective Republican gerrymander splitting Guilford is basically mandatory.

Another reason why the first order of business of Dems in their next trifecta needs to be to pass a national law mandating that counties and cities cannot be split unless a district(s) is a already fully contained within that county or city and the remainder doesn’t not have enough population to house another whole district.  Would solve the problem here and in Jacksonville FL and SLC Utah.

This is the Ohio rule and we already know it doesn't solve the problem because, uh, Ohio. Counties are bad proxies for COI. Just require partisan proportionality based on contested federal races and opportunity districts, and a requirement that metro areas not be split if it's unnecessary to achieve the prior objectives.

In states like NV, MA, WI, WA etc you have to gerrymander to achieve Partisan proportionality

Probably CA and CT too.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Somebody or several bodies needs to read the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

Can we stop with the splitting of Guilford and Forsyth counties?  I understand that they don’t need to be put in the same district, but at least keep them whole.  Something like the 2016 map is fine in this area, but just keep Guilford whole this time.

If you want to do an effective Republican gerrymander splitting Guilford is basically mandatory.

Another reason why the first order of business of Dems in their next trifecta needs to be to pass a national law mandating that counties and cities cannot be split unless a district(s) is a already fully contained within that county or city and the remainder doesn’t not have enough population to house another whole district.  Would solve the problem here and in Jacksonville FL and SLC Utah.

This is the Ohio rule and we already know it doesn't solve the problem because, uh, Ohio. Counties are bad proxies for COI. Just require partisan proportionality based on contested federal races and opportunity districts, and a requirement that metro areas not be split if it's unnecessary to achieve the prior objectives.

In states like NV, MA, WI, WA etc you have to gerrymander to achieve Partisan proportionality

Probably CA and CT too.

A fair map of CT would have a trump 2016 seat I think. Not sure about CA

[ProgressiveModerate]

Somebody or several bodies needs to read the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

Can we stop with the splitting of Guilford and Forsyth counties?  I understand that they don’t need to be put in the same district, but at least keep them whole.  Something like the 2016 map is fine in this area, but just keep Guilford whole this time.

If you want to do an effective Republican gerrymander splitting Guilford is basically mandatory.

Another reason why the first order of business of Dems in their next trifecta needs to be to pass a national law mandating that counties and cities cannot be split unless a district(s) is a already fully contained within that county or city and the remainder doesn’t not have enough population to house another whole district.  Would solve the problem here and in Jacksonville FL and SLC Utah.

This is the Ohio rule and we already know it doesn't solve the problem because, uh, Ohio. Counties are bad proxies for COI. Just require partisan proportionality based on contested federal races and opportunity districts, and a requirement that metro areas not be split if it's unnecessary to achieve the prior objectives.

In states like NV, MA, WI, WA etc you have to gerrymander to achieve Partisan proportionality

Probably CA and CT too.

A fair map of CT would have a trump 2016 seat I think. Not sure about CA

Still, that Trump district would be extremely narrow, and under proportionality you should have 2 Trump seats and 3 Biden seats in CT. Proportionality just becomes infeasible once you start getting states over a partisanship of D/R+10 in most cases, and you have to compromise good map making principles to achieve proportionality.

There has to be some curve that models on a fair map, what % of seats one would expect given the topline margin. Perhaps in a result of 65% D - 35% R, one would expect a fair map to have 80% D seats and 20% R seats. The other problem with proportionality is competitive districts; flipping one or two seats by narrow margins can have huge implications on the proportional share of seats even if  the state's partisanship didn't change all that much. Under the current AZ map for instance, Clinton won 33% of Congressional seats in 2016, and Biden won 56% in 2020 despite D vote share only increasing by 5%, but the 2 seats that flipped between cycles were narrow both cycles. There should also be a curve that counts divides the counts of the seats if that makes sense. I came up with a curve like this a while back and here are some examples:

For instance, Biden + 81 PA-03 would count as 1 seat for Ds and 0 seats for Rs.

A closer seat like Biden + 10 NY-17 would count as 0.79 seats for Ds and 0.21 seats for Rs.

And then a true tossup seat like Biden + 0.1 AZ-01 would be 0.5023 seats for Ds and 0.4977 seats for Rs

When you add these up, you get things like CA has 44.27 D seats and 7.73 R seats using 2020 Pres numbers as the basis. Ofc the hardline actual breakdown is 45 Biden - 7 Trump, but because there are just more Biden seats, and more narrow Biden seats, in practice this map should be expected to produce another seat for Rs given the topline 2020 Pres number holds.

Another good example would be IA where in reality Trump won all 4 districts, but because 3 districts were so narrow, the actual expected seat count is 2.80R - 1.20D using 2020 Pres as a base. This means if the statewide margin is R + 8.2, you'd expect Dems to win on average 1.2 seats.

[Sorenroy]

Is there a program that can create every possible combination of whole precinct districts under a given population criteria?

I've been working on a full NC-Senate map ahead of the redraws that does not split any precincts (or minimizes splits if they are required) and stumbled on this: The Granville + Wake County Cluster is painfully small for its allotted six Senators. It has a total population of 1,190,402 and each district must have at least 198,349 people. Once each district has that number, there are only 308 people that can be shifted around to make the maps work. If I can't find a way to automatically sort through the junk districts that don't fit the population requirements, I'm looking at dozens of hours combing through precinct-by-precinct manually to see what works. Does anyone have any ideas here?

[Vern]

Does anyone know when they are going to start the redraw?