North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That district 9 is certainly unexpected... looks like a swingy district though

It took me a bit to realize they drew Union County and Chapel Hill in the same district.
The 9th looks like a seat drawn specifically to be competitive.

[lfromnj]

That district 9 is certainly unexpected... looks like a swingy district though

Trump +7, its missing 30k of Orange given to the Durham district.

[Nyvin]

Looks like a map to maximize competitive districts, and uncrack Guilford/Forsyth.

If Republicans manage to win that NC-8 this year, it'll be a two year rental and nothing more.

[GALeftist]

Did a rough sketch of the notable districts in DRA, my estimates for the interesting districts:

NC-01: Biden+7, Cooper+13
NC-07: Trump+16.5, Forest+10
NC-08: Biden+0.1 (like 500 votes, could've gone either way, very marginal either way), Cooper+4.5
NC-09: Trump+8.5 (also lmao), Forest+2
NC-11: Trump+10, Forest+4
NC-14: Trump+3, Cooper+5

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looks like a map to maximize competitive districts, and uncrack Guilford/Forsyth.

If Republicans manage to win that NC-8 this year, it'll be a two year rental and nothing more.

Except they very likely to redraw post 2022 anyways. I think their goal here is to reduce Ds to 4.5 seats in 2022 (depending upon NC-01), and then redraw to reduce them to 4.

[Oryxslayer]

That district 9 is certainly unexpected... looks like a swingy district though

It took me a bit to realize they drew Union County and Chapel Hill in the same district.
The 9th looks like a seat drawn specifically to be competitive.

If this is the map, then there appears to be the goal of making sure the Democratic primary voters in the swing seats are going to be nominating candidates with geographic (media markets), financial (PoC in the 14th), or potentially ideological (college town vs suburbs) disadvantages. The MS SD-21 situation only applied for partisan rather racial gerrymandering.

 I wonder if the court would accept something like this. Maybe it is good enough. Perhaps they already decided when delivering the opinion that nothing from the Leg would match their standards and something else was needed from a different party - as they gave themselves the power to do in the court order. We don't know.

[lfromnj]

Note this is the house proposal, I am waiting for the senate proposal as they were actually the ones to draw the congressional maps. The house had all the retarded bait maps while the senate had the lazer eye ones that were used as the basis for the enacted map.

[lfromnj]

Looks like a map to maximize competitive districts, and uncrack Guilford/Forsyth.

If Republicans manage to win that NC-8 this year, it'll be a two year rental and nothing more.

Except they very likely to redraw post 2022 anyways. I think their goal here is to reduce Ds to 4.5 seats in 2022 (depending upon NC-01), and then redraw to reduce them to 4.

The Guilford/Forsyth district actually keeps the black percentage relatively low, making it easier for any redraw in 2023 just incase.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That district 9 is certainly unexpected... looks like a swingy district though

It took me a bit to realize they drew Union County and Chapel Hill in the same district.
The 9th looks like a seat drawn specifically to be competitive.

If this is the map, then there appears to be the goal of making sure the Democratic primary voters in the swing seats are going to be nominating candidates with geographic (media markets), financial (PoC in the 14th), or potentially ideological (college town vs suburbs) disadvantages. The MS SD-21 situation only applied for partisan rather racial gerrymandering.

 I wonder if the court would accept something like this. Maybe it is good enough. Perhaps they already decided when delivering the opinion that nothing from the Leg would match their standards and something else was needed from a different party - as they gave themselves the power to do in the court order. We don't know.

What you said makes sense. It's quite cunning of them as well too.
I wonder what the Senate will cook up.

[Storr]

The suburban Charlotte NC-08 tossup seat is a welcome surprise. But a district stretching from Union County to Orange County? No thank you.

Edit: But my minimum acceptable NC congressional map for Democrats of 1 Charlotte seat, 1 Greensboro-Winston Salem seat, 2 Raleigh-Durham seats, 1 Northeastern rural DRA seat, and Fayetteville/Cumberland County and Asheville/Buncombe County each in one district undivided is satisfied. So I’m fine with the other weirdness/hackishness.

[Vern]

I was wanting to be in a swing district. But I'm in the new 13

[GALeftist]

Anyway this map is bad and dumb but it isn't horrible from a partisanship standpoint. NC-14 is distinctly winnable with the right candidate. Could certainly be better though.

[Gass3268]

I think there is enough here for the Democrats to turn it down.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Eyeballing it, is the 14th roughly 12% Native?

[lfromnj]

I think there is enough here for the Democrats to turn it down.

A lot of NC legislative Democratic leaders come from Chapel Hill.

[Vern]

From my understanding. This is the House's map. The one that matter is the Senate map. They seem to be the playmakers.

[lfromnj]

From my understanding. This is the House's map. The one that matter is the Senate map. They seem to be the playmakers.

Yup I am actually pretty sure this is close to one of Hall's earlier's drafts . The Senate makes the maps.

[Gass3268]

I think there is enough here for the Democrats to turn it down.

A lot of NC legislative Democratic leaders come from Chapel Hill.

That in addition to the chopping up of the Triad black community.

[Sol]

Looks like a map to maximize competitive districts, and uncrack Guilford/Forsyth.

If Republicans manage to win that NC-8 this year, it'll be a two year rental and nothing more.

Except they very likely to redraw post 2022 anyways. I think their goal here is to reduce Ds to 4.5 seats in 2022 (depending upon NC-01), and then redraw to reduce them to 4.

The Guilford/Forsyth district actually keeps the black percentage relatively low, making it easier for any redraw in 2023 just incase.

Yeah this kind of smells like a "bongcloud opening"--either they're doing troll maps to make their lazer maps look good, or this is designed to be struck down by a Republican court.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Butterfield's seat here is extremely unoptimized. I have no idea why there are so many rural white counties in there when they could just scoop out Goldsboro and Kinston instead. (I mean, I know it's to make it "competitive", but shouldn't ensuring minority representation be more important?)

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/DallasWoodhouse/status/1493786048278663169?cxt=HHwWgsCsoeOf_...

Yeah Woodhouse is highly skeptical of it being the map.

[lfromnj]

Butterfield's seat here is extremely unoptimized. I have no idea why there are so many rural white counties in there when they could just scoop out Goldsboro and Kinston instead. (I mean, I know it's to make it "competitive", but shouldn't ensuring minority representation be more important?)

https://twitter.com/LWVofWake/status/1452724877362929670

Basically seems what a black Democrat drew.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/DallasWoodhouse/status/1493786048278663169?cxt=HHwWgsCsoeOf_...

Yeah Woodhouse is highly skeptical of it being the map.

Ye, that 9th seems like something the Senate is unlikely to do; my guess is the Senate will draw something more akin to the 2020 map. This map I think will fail to pass muster with the court for a few of the reasons some have mentioned (leaving black parts of Greensboro out of the 6th, the 9th district, if that 8th really is a Trump district 9-5 is probably a bit too GOP friendly), but it is better.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Butterfield's seat here is extremely unoptimized. I have no idea why there are so many rural white counties in there when they could just scoop out Goldsboro and Kinston instead. (I mean, I know it's to make it "competitive", but shouldn't ensuring minority representation be more important?)

https://twitter.com/LWVofWake/status/1452724877362929670

Basically seems what a black Democrat drew.

Overall CBK 5 is a pretty fair map; something like CST-6 is where it goes too far and there's a clear Dem bias of unpacking Durham.

I personally prefer the Charlotte district to be higher VAP and more centralized rather than putting like 100k worth of heavily AA precincts into 9 to make it more competative.

[nclib]

Mainly a good map, but I really don't like the 9th, especially if I am in it (I'm in Chapel Hill).