North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[lfromnj]

Anyway there is still a decent chance the NC Could sweep the supreme court races this year giving 4-3 control of the courts in which case the NC GOP could do 11-3 or 10-4.
If not it depends how hardball each side plays, I think Democrats will be much better prepared for the 2022 cycle and will hardball as possible for either the Charlotte split or 4 districts in the Piedmont to Wake or even both,

[Storr]

I don't think 11-3 would be possible. 10-3 was only possible with some of the worst looking districts ever.
 What I assume will be the starting point will be what exists for 2020: 2 triangle area D seats, 1 D Northeastern VRA seat, 1 D Triad (Greensboro + Winston Salem), and 1 D most of Mecklenburg County seat. The new court drawn 2nd district should be a D Suburban vote sink for the rest of this decade, so the GOP won't have that worry much about shoring up the Triangle. The big question for the GOP to decide is what to do about Charlotte's Suburbs, currently in the 8th and 9th districts, and Fayetteville. The strips from the Charlotte area to the Sandhills worked for the whole of the 2010s. But the new 14th district throws a wrench in the current map. As can be seen in the D Gerrymander already made, combining Cabarrus, Union, and non-12th Mecklenburg County creates a Tossup/Lean R seat that's trending in the wrong direction for Republicans and putting Cumberland County (Fayetteville) in any seat whole/mostly whole sways it significantly to the left. Assuming the GOP wants to avoid that, I assume they will keep those Charlotte area suburbs separate and split up Cumberland somehow.
I could see both sides agreeing on (well, the GOP deciding to be generous) a Fayetteville to Southern Wake seat (with the two other Triangle seats stretching to the north) creating a fairly solid 8R-6D map. Though NC-09 would likely still be the weakest link since it would continue to have some of Mecklenburg County in it. NC-08 would likely still trend left slightly due to Cabarrus County. NC-01 the opposite due to it not including any of Wake County, but I doubt it would be enough for either to become competitive.

[Skill and Chance]

Anyway there is still a decent chance the NC Could sweep the supreme court races this year giving 4-3 control of the courts in which case the NC GOP could do 11-3 or 10-4.
If not it depends how hardball each side plays, I think Democrats will be much better prepared for the 2022 cycle and will hardball as possible for either the Charlotte split or 4 districts in the Piedmont to Wake or even both,

A sweep this year would still be 4/3 Dem control afterward.   The lone Republican held seat is one of the 3 that are up. 

[lfromnj]

Anyway there is still a decent chance the NC Could sweep the supreme court races this year giving 4-3 control of the courts in which case the NC GOP could do 11-3 or 10-4.
If not it depends how hardball each side plays, I think Democrats will be much better prepared for the 2022 cycle and will hardball as possible for either the Charlotte split or 4 districts in the Piedmont to Wake or even both,

A sweep this year would still be 4/3 Dem control afterward.   The lone Republican held seat is one of the 3 that are up. 

My bad thank you !

[Sol]

Anyone think they might split Mecklenburg like this.(not the GOP but the courts) The red district is only 50% white in 2010 and 35.6% black in 2010. Its almost 37% black by 2018 which is close to the current district. However its much more polarized at only Clinton 58.1 and Trump 37.8% The yellow district now has a few more minority precints to be around 20% black but also loses all of Union county and gains less red Cabarrus.
This district is nearly identical to VA 10th at Clinton 52.1% and Trump 42.8%(even has similar demographics just less asian and more black). Also voted for Romney but its basically Likely/Safe D.

I suspect the courts wouldn't go for a map that obviously gerrymandered if overruling a GOP gerrymander.

Tough to call it obvious when Charlotte has to be split anyway and the population growth makes it possible for it to consider 2 districts based mainly in charlotte as Mecklenburg by itself is around 10/7 of a district.

The thing about Mecklenburg is that it's a pretty easy area to split. Northern Meck. County is a good fit for a suburban district, as is much of South Charlotte. Putting Gastonia in a district with black parts of Charlotte as well as Northern Meck. is the sort of thing that screams "disgusting gerrymandering" and kind of undermines the court's point if they're striking down a nasty GOP map.

[Sol]

One thing that's funny about the current map: The GOP kind of left some numbers on the table in the split of the 2nd and 4th. The 2nd could have been drawn more Republican-ly by having the 4th's bite out of Wake County take in areas in the Cary/Morrisville/RTP area rather than the Northern portion.

Ironically that's actually better for communities of interest too--if you're putting any part of Wake in a district with Orange and Durham, that corner certainly is oriented the most towards those latter two counties.

[lfromnj]

One thing that's funny about the current map: The GOP kind of left some numbers on the table in the split of the 2nd and 4th. The 2nd could have been drawn more Republican-ly by having the 4th's bite out of Wake County take in areas in the Cary/Morrisville/RTP area rather than the Northern portion.

Ironically that's actually better for communities of interest too--if you're putting any part of Wake in a district with Orange and Durham, that corner certainly is oriented the most towards those latter two counties.

I think they saw what happened with the greedy PA legislators who just sacrificed a retiring incumbent's seat to shore up everything else(infact that seat would have flipped in 2018 anyway) so they didn't really want to compete in the 2nd district and the 6th anymore


They could also have drawn this district Clinton +0.5 or instead just drawn Guilford+rockingham+Alamance for a Clinton +8, the first one could easily see Walker winning(not safe R of course just IMO tilt R) and the 2nd one atleast gives him a fighting chance. I don't think anyone can really call 3 whole counties a gerrymander.

[Skill and Chance]

Anyway there is still a decent chance the NC Could sweep the supreme court races this year giving 4-3 control of the courts in which case the NC GOP could do 11-3 or 10-4.
If not it depends how hardball each side plays, I think Democrats will be much better prepared for the 2022 cycle and will hardball as possible for either the Charlotte split or 4 districts in the Piedmont to Wake or even both,

A sweep this year would still be 4/3 Dem control afterward.   The lone Republican held seat is one of the 3 that are up. 

My bad thank you !

For more context, the lone Republican incumbent is vacating his seat to challenge the appointed Dem for Chief Justice, so the R held seat will be open.  The Dem Chief Justice has already been elected to the court as an associate justice in thee past.  Cooper just elevated her to Chief Justice.  IDK who is favored in this race between 2 incumbents.  The other Dem incumbent up in 2020 was appointed by Cooper in 2019, so this is his first supreme court election. 

In a good Republican year, they probably win 2 of the 3, in a good Dem year they maintain the current balance.  With Trump consistently doing well in NC but Dems doing somewhat better downballot, I think the most likely outcome is R's pick up 1 seat.  2 Dem incumbents are up in 2022, so to be assured of continued control beyond then, they need to maintain the 6/1 split.

It's also technically possible to pack the court, but only with 2 additional seats because the NC constitution weirdly sets a limit of 9 and there are currently 7.   So if Republicans flip the governorship or take a veto-proof majority (quite unlikely under the new 2020 maps though) and the court is 4D/3R, they could flip control by adding 2 seats.  Given that everything they tried during the 2010's to modify judicial elections has backfired on them, and a 4/3 court that could flip in 2022 anyway is likely to be more restrained, I doubt this would actually happen.     

[Sol]

Also worth noting--the NC Senate is a bit of a longshot pickup opportunity for Democrats. It's not likely, but definitely possible in a strong Democratic year.

[lfromnj]

The problem with the NC state legislature right now is that due to the growth its still quite hard for Democrats to have a fair count of their population.

[Oryxslayer]

The problem with the NC state legislature right now is that due to the growth its still quite hard for Democrats to have a fair count of their population.

Yeah it's likely that Blue counties would naturally be apportioned >50% in at least 1 chamber come 2020. County pairing changes what is possible in regards to the districts. Charlotte and Wake are growing that fast. However, there is no guarantee all seats would be safe, or even democratic - there are red parts of blue counties and visa versa.  

[lfromnj]

The problem with the NC state legislature right now is that due to the growth its still quite hard for Democrats to have a fair count of their population.

Yeah it's likely that Blue counties would naturally be apportioned >50% in at least 1 chamber come 2020. Charlotte and Wake are growing that fast. However, there is no guarantee all seats would be safe, or even democratic - there are red parts of blue counties and visa versa.   

I mean they wouldn't be safe per se but in a wave year like 2018 Dems swept almost all the seats in these areas

[windjammer]

The NC senate and NC House are really in play?

[Oryxslayer]

The NC senate and NC House are really in play?

They cannot flip presently unless the Dems get lucky. However, if the power remains distributed as it is presently then the outcomes of the map are uncertain. Population has ballooned in the Charlotte and Raleigh metros and it will only get larger - 2030 the map will likely naturally favor the dems if coalitions and growth remain as they are. Right now though it is gonna be 50-50 between blue and red areas. In 2010 it favored R areas. Seats get reapportioned throughout the state. NC redistricting is 100% going to be a battleground if things remain as they are.

[Nyvin]

The NC senate and NC House are really in play?

In the state senate,  SD-39 will probably flip regardless of the national environment, it's a Clinton +20 district that's held by an R.

Other than that, SD-18 can go from R to D as well, it's Clinton +1 and R held.  It's in north Wake county and trending D overall.  The incumbent isn't running for re-election.

If the Dems can defend all their vulnerable seats (SD-9, SD-17, and SD-19 imo) then that brings them to 23D-27R.   To get the last two they'd need to win some Trump +9 or 10 districts.

Not impossible (especially if they can flip the Robeson County one, SD-13) but it's an uphill battle.

[Skill and Chance]

The NC senate and NC House are really in play?

In the state senate,  SD-39 will probably flip regardless of the national environment, it's a Clinton +20 district that's held by an R.

Other than that, SD-18 can go from R to D as well, it's Clinton +1 and R held.  It's in north Wake county and trending D overall.  The incumbent isn't running for re-election.

If the Dems can defend all their vulnerable seats (SD-9, SD-17, and SD-19 imo) then that brings them to 23D-27R.   To get the last two they'd need to win some Trump +9 or 10 districts.

Not impossible (especially if they can flip the Robeson County one, SD-13) but it's an uphill battle.

Hmmm... the year the NC Dems would really want to take a legislative chamber is 2022.  They are assured a say in the 2021 process through the partisan state supreme court.

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

The NC senate and NC House are really in play?

In the state senate,  SD-39 will probably flip regardless of the national environment, it's a Clinton +20 district that's held by an R.

Other than that, SD-18 can go from R to D as well, it's Clinton +1 and R held.  It's in north Wake county and trending D overall.  The incumbent isn't running for re-election.

If the Dems can defend all their vulnerable seats (SD-9, SD-17, and SD-19 imo) then that brings them to 23D-27R.   To get the last two they'd need to win some Trump +9 or 10 districts.

Not impossible (especially if they can flip the Robeson County one, SD-13) but it's an uphill battle.

Hmmm... the year the NC Dems would really want to take a legislative chamber is 2022.  They are assured a say in the 2021 process through the partisan state supreme court.

I think the say they'll have is more or less just protecting their incumbents like the last map

[Mr.Phips]

The NC senate and NC House are really in play?

In the state senate,  SD-39 will probably flip regardless of the national environment, it's a Clinton +20 district that's held by an R.

Other than that, SD-18 can go from R to D as well, it's Clinton +1 and R held.  It's in north Wake county and trending D overall.  The incumbent isn't running for re-election.

If the Dems can defend all their vulnerable seats (SD-9, SD-17, and SD-19 imo) then that brings them to 23D-27R.   To get the last two they'd need to win some Trump +9 or 10 districts.

Not impossible (especially if they can flip the Robeson County one, SD-13) but it's an uphill battle.

They’d need to get SD-01.

[Nyvin]

The NC senate and NC House are really in play?

In the state senate,  SD-39 will probably flip regardless of the national environment, it's a Clinton +20 district that's held by an R.

Other than that, SD-18 can go from R to D as well, it's Clinton +1 and R held.  It's in north Wake county and trending D overall.  The incumbent isn't running for re-election.

If the Dems can defend all their vulnerable seats (SD-9, SD-17, and SD-19 imo) then that brings them to 23D-27R.   To get the last two they'd need to win some Trump +9 or 10 districts.

Not impossible (especially if they can flip the Robeson County one, SD-13) but it's an uphill battle.

They’d need to get SD-01.

Why would they want to try for that?   That's the rural seat in the northeast coast.  

That seat should be trending R if anything.   There's way better targets than SD-1.  There's SD-13 in Robeson,  SD-31 in Forsyth,  even SD-7 south of Pitt would be better than SD-1.

[Sol]

The NC senate and NC House are really in play?

In the state senate,  SD-39 will probably flip regardless of the national environment, it's a Clinton +20 district that's held by an R.

Other than that, SD-18 can go from R to D as well, it's Clinton +1 and R held.  It's in north Wake county and trending D overall.  The incumbent isn't running for re-election.

If the Dems can defend all their vulnerable seats (SD-9, SD-17, and SD-19 imo) then that brings them to 23D-27R.   To get the last two they'd need to win some Trump +9 or 10 districts.

Not impossible (especially if they can flip the Robeson County one, SD-13) but it's an uphill battle.

They’d need to get SD-01.

Why would they want to try for that?   That's the rural seat in the northeast coast.  

That seat should be trending R if anything.   There's way better targets than SD-1.  There's SD-13 in Robeson,  SD-31 in Forsyth,  even SD-7 south of Pitt would be better than SD-1.

Democrats have a strong candidate in SD-1, Tess Judge, who came very near to winning in 2018. It's also not without Democratic areas which give Democrats a decent floor.

[Mr.Phips]

The NC senate and NC House are really in play?

In the state senate,  SD-39 will probably flip regardless of the national environment, it's a Clinton +20 district that's held by an R.

Other than that, SD-18 can go from R to D as well, it's Clinton +1 and R held.  It's in north Wake county and trending D overall.  The incumbent isn't running for re-election.

If the Dems can defend all their vulnerable seats (SD-9, SD-17, and SD-19 imo) then that brings them to 23D-27R.   To get the last two they'd need to win some Trump +9 or 10 districts.

Not impossible (especially if they can flip the Robeson County one, SD-13) but it's an uphill battle.

They’d need to get SD-01.

Why would they want to try for that?   That's the rural seat in the northeast coast.  

That seat should be trending R if anything.   There's way better targets than SD-1.  There's SD-13 in Robeson,  SD-31 in Forsyth,  even SD-7 south of Pitt would be better than SD-1.

SD-31 is incredibly inelastic due to Davie county and basically had a Dem ceiling of around 48%.  SD-01 has a large number of blacks that will always keep Dems in the game.

[Sol]

The NC senate and NC House are really in play?

In the state senate,  SD-39 will probably flip regardless of the national environment, it's a Clinton +20 district that's held by an R.

Other than that, SD-18 can go from R to D as well, it's Clinton +1 and R held.  It's in north Wake county and trending D overall.  The incumbent isn't running for re-election.

If the Dems can defend all their vulnerable seats (SD-9, SD-17, and SD-19 imo) then that brings them to 23D-27R.   To get the last two they'd need to win some Trump +9 or 10 districts.

Not impossible (especially if they can flip the Robeson County one, SD-13) but it's an uphill battle.

They’d need to get SD-01.

Why would they want to try for that?   That's the rural seat in the northeast coast.  

That seat should be trending R if anything.   There's way better targets than SD-1.  There's SD-13 in Robeson,  SD-31 in Forsyth,  even SD-7 south of Pitt would be better than SD-1.

SD-31 is incredibly inelastic due to Davie county and basically had a Dem ceiling of around 48%.  SD-01 has a large number of blacks that will always keep Dems in the game.

Democrats actually have a pretty strong candidate here too--and Davie County, although firmly Republican, has certain areas which are wealthy enclaves and in this topsy-turvy Tory Dem world may thus be likely to swing to Democrats.

[windjammer]

The NC supreme court races? Any guesses?

[Skill and Chance]

The NC supreme court races? Any guesses?

Chief Justice is incumbent vs. incumbent, resulting in a previously R held open associate justice seat on the court.  The 3rd seat up is a Dem incumbent running for the seat they currently hold.  I'd have to guess 2R/1D or 2D/1R are the most likely outcomes?  CJ goes to whichever side does better statewide in general (though unclear if we should be measuring against Cooper, Tillis, or Trump?), the Dem incumbent probably holds on, and the GOP probably holds the open seat. 

[Sol]

Have y'all tried drawing with NC on the new population numbers? I've been tinkering around with some maps (nothing finished yet). So far it seems like the population distribution is a little better as far as drawing decent community of interest based districts ( ) but there seem to be fewer whole-county combinations which make concise districts ( ).

There also seem to be a few other "difficult points." The 1st district has been declining in population all decade even as NC has been gaining a seat, so it doesn't change much from 2010. Eastern North Carolina seems to have had laggy growth in general, but unlike last time it does seem to be possible to draw three ENC districts. Another thing worth noting is that Eastern Wake County is increasingly black; it means that a district based in Johnston or Franklin County might shouldn't cut in in that direction.