North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Vern]

Y’all think we will get a final map this week?

[Nyvin]

Y’all think we will get a final map this week?

I think I remember reading they're planning for release on Thursday.

[Vern]

Y’all think we will get a final map this week?

I think I remember reading they're planning for release on Thursday.

I can’t wait to see what my new district could be.

[Oryxslayer]

Y’all think we will get a final map this week?

I think I remember reading they're planning for release on Thursday.

I can’t wait to see what my new district could be.

Probably won't end though. Unless they decide to double-bunk someone theres almost no way the SE/Sandhills are not going to get shafted. There's about 1.6 CD's worth of pop there, both Blue and Red, and no incumbents for miles. So, a master will be needed to fix that even if the rest of the map if passable.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's a version of my "standard" map that focuses on avoiding double-bunking incumbents. All incumbents except one are alone, which of course means the stupid 7th makes it's return. Bishop ends up paired with Hudson, because the SE/Sandhills shouldn't be stripped out just to satisfy the incumbents. This doesn't prevent Walker and Holding being DOA though.

Forgot to mention, this map requires four cut precincts to get everyone to equivalent pop ( my standard is <100 on DRA), but these cuts do not add any new county cuts - they are just a side effect of the large precinct size in a few counties. One is in Wake between 9/2, one in Chatham between 13/4, one in Granville between 1/4, and one in Wayne between 1/7.

[Vern]

From the maps they have all posted, there is a very high chance I will either be in a very democratic district or a swing district.

[Vern]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1194776589818445825?s=20

[Vern]

the bottom map I posted looks like the map the GOP  are going to go with.

[Oryxslayer]

Happened to wake up for a moment...anyway before I sleep again....

That map looks a lot like some of the ones here, actually a lot like my recent incumbent one if we ignore the block of 5/8/9/10/13. And people thought the Greensboro/W-S paired wasn't the  most logical. Now concerning the previous block, it's just a obvious bacon-stripping of the suburbs to  deny the sandhills a seat, keep incumbents satisfied, and prevent-double bunking. The stripping though is so obvious that I doubt the process ends here.

The stupid 7th makes it's return, though like I predicted in my incumbent map, such a seat was rather inevitable with the stipulation of no double bunking. Nobody is in the SE to get the Wilmington/Sandhills, so it ends up stripped.

There's also an amendment which avoids cutting Fayetteville. It also makes the fourth much better, a LOT like my versions.
https://twitter.com/RepDavidRLewis/status/1194800184762552321

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Oryxslayer and cvparty have produced the best maps I have seen so far in this thread. I cannot open Oregon Blue Dog's on this computer so I cannot say anything about that one.


Also the whole discussion about which Reps live where is emblematic of why the courts needs to draw this. Considering where incumbents lives in redistricting should be illegal. These maps are not drawn to serve them, they are drawn to best represent the people and the Representatives are then suppose to represent those districts. If they cannot do that, then they need to retire.

I would gladly vote for Holden over Rouzer in a primary if it were to come to that.

[cvparty]

Oryxslayer and cvparty have produced the best maps I have seen so far in this thread. I cannot open Oregon Blue Dog's on this computer so I cannot say anything about that one.


Also the whole discussion about which Reps live where is emblematic of why the courts needs to draw this. Considering where incumbents lives in redistricting should be illegal. These maps are not drawn to serve them, they are drawn to best represent the people and the Representatives are then suppose to represent those districts. If they cannot do that, then they need to retire.

I would gladly vote for Holden over Rouzer in a primary if it were to come to that.

thanks uwu that's flattering to hear from a north carolinian. i agree on the thing about double bunking being BS, what bearing should incumbents' hometowns have on drawing fair districts? isn't the virtue of the latter with respect to the people, not a small group of politicians?

[Vern]

Today they will make changes to the map. Let’s see what happens. But we do know we will get two new Dems seats.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, I'm back up, some other remarks.

I find it amazing that if the map returns to the courts and they have to make edits, it won't really be because of partisanship, it will because of incumbents. All the Dem seats are good in theory, it's the fact that every GOP seat except the distant 3/11 are strips thanks to incumbent homes. The sad thing is that like in my incumbent map, all you had to do is bus uber-freshman Bishop as well as Holding and Walker and you could get it good. There's enough GOP votes in the SE to get compact seats that should elect the GOP without Bacon stripping the sandhills that badly. You just know that if Dems won the 9ths special instead of Reps than the stupid provision wouldn't have been accepted.

Also a minor point is how Wayne remains whole in every map. The first is actually closeish to the margins because it has Nash, Franklin, and Perquimans uncut on the main map. Cutting Wayne would go a long way to fixing the seat, with Washington and Pasquotank right there to substitute deep red precincts for AA ones.

[lfromnj]

Btw anyone notice the GOP wants a winnable Nc 1? The one in that map is clinton +6.5. Definitely winnable for the GOP in a wave.

[Oryxslayer]

Currently the GOP are  pushing Lewis's map from my previous post that keeps Cumberland whole. They voted and approved it in committee from three separate but very similar plans. It's funny how it's the dem seats that all look good, it's the GOP ones that go crazy for incumbents.

However, Lewis does have something new up that while bacon-stripping does start to Bus Incumbents.



Also here's a detailed version of the current map, the competitive first was never going to stay since it's VRA.

[lfromnj]

I don’t understand why they are doing like 30 maps.. hha

Its fun:p

[Nyvin]

Btw anyone notice the GOP wants a winnable Nc 1? The one in that map is clinton +6.5. Definitely winnable for the GOP in a wave.

I doubt it,  almost all the voters are AA.   That's going to be a rock solid floor for Democrats.

[Nyvin]

Keeping Union/SE Mecklenburg in with the Sandhills area is a blatant partisan gerrymander and an effort to keep Bishop's home in the seat.   There's really no other defense for it.

The two areas have absolutely nothing in common.

[Oryxslayer]

Keeping Union/SE Mecklenburg in with the Sandhills area is a blatant partisan gerrymander and an effort to keep Bishop's home in the seat.   There's really no other defense for it.

I think everyone agrees that from the plan on the  table right now, NC08/09 need to be cut east/west rather than north south. But you know "wE CAn'T PaIr inCUmBenTs" so sh**t happens. I mean you are already busing Holden and Walker, whats one more? Also 10/5/13 should probably reshuffle the counties between them, but once again"reSIdEnCiES." And that's the story how the North Carolina courts got the pen from the state legislature.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/brentlaurenz/status/1195028349309071361

So the suggested plan my very well be our 'final' map before the judges bang their gavel.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/brentlaurenz/status/1195028349309071361

So the suggested plan my very well be our 'final' map before the judges bang their gavel.

Geez. 8 and 9 are terrible, but 5 and 10 are terrible, too. What's the reasoning behind them? It doesn't seem to be to separate incumbents or to preserve the existing map.

[Sol]

The Republicans had to screw an incumbent with a W-S-Greensboro district--so they decided to screw Foxx or McHenry rather than the incumbent in the area? That seems like the most plausible explanation for WNC to me.

[Sol]

Anyway the 7th sucks--but it does highlight the unfortunate truth that one of NC-01, NC-03, or NC-07 must crack into either the Triangle or the Sandhills.

[Oryxslayer]

The sad thing is I don't anyone has problems with any of the dem seats - they aren't packing beyond their geographic area, and they all have clear COIs. It's the GOP seats. Why is 5 and 10 E/W rather than N/S? If the stupid 7th has to exist than everything to the west is passable...but it certainly can be improved. 13/8/9 actually make sense considering where the incumbents live, but that doesn't justify the strips.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/brentlaurenz/status/1195028349309071361

So the suggested plan my very well be our 'final' map before the judges bang their gavel.

Geez. 8 and 9 are terrible, but 5 and 10 are terrible, too. What's the reasoning behind them? It doesn't seem to be to separate incumbents or to preserve the existing map.

Indeed they are, but the 8th could be competitive with all of Cumberland County (Fayetteville) and increasingly competitive Cabarrus County (Charlotte suburbs). I'd love to see its PVI in the version including all of Cumberland.
EDIT: I found some kid on twitter that estimated the PVI on this map, if he's correct the 8th would be R+5 and 9th R+7. https://twitter.com/JacksonMartin42/status/1195024367559860225

The 7th is obviously terrible, but we knew that was likely. But the 5th and 10th are worse imo because there is no need to strip there. McHenry and Foxx would be stuck with a ton of people they haven't represented before, although solidly conservative areas, I doubt either are happy with that. I'm very confused as to why they stripped those two seats. On top of everything else, the incumbents live far apart.
I'm not as annoyed with the 8th and 9th because they were already stripped and we knew they were likely to remain so due to where the incumbents live.